Goodform Gameplan: Melton Thu 31st December

One of the great beauties about nights like these from a punting perspective is the clear class chasms between the genuine winning chance, the next tier and the rest. The two big hopes here are ALWAYS READY (11) and SAMMY SHOWDOWN (7). The next tier is comprised by BRANDLO PRINCE (4) and FLINGANDWINGIT (8). Stick to that general concept and you’ll go very close. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 7,11/ 4,7,11/ 2,4,7,8,11 ($24 gets 200%) 

Flexi Trifecta: 7,11/ 8/ 2,4,7,11 ($6 gets 50%)

With the potential craziness possible at the start here and the fact that the best horse ILLAWONG STARDAUST (11) is less the foolproof I’m steering clear of this Group 1 as a betting option. Despite her awkward draw the overs in the race is now OFORTUNA (8). 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that ILLAWONG STARDUST (11) will win) 

Top fluc is all gone but we are still getting about 17% of value with RULES DON’T APPLY (5) at $9 right now. I think he’s the leader and even though COVER OF DARKNESS (10) is the best horse there’s enough against him to entertain taking him on tonight. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$20 Each Way on RULES DONT APPLY (5) at $6 or better

Hopefully we’ve already got something on SILENT MAJOR (11) at big odd (he opened $41) after Moo Sidebottom and myself both espoused his virtues earlier in the week. The other one worth an EW investment is IMNOPUMPKIN (6) at $26. Don’t get me wrong PACIFICO DREAM (9) is the horse to beat but I think anything less than $2 represents unders from the draw. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Hopefully already on SILENT MAJOR (11) Each Way at $41 

$10 Each Way on IMNOPUMPKIN (6) at $21 or better.

She will need a top-end war between stablemates AMELIA ROSE (7) and MAAJIDA (8) but if she gets it I think SHES A HOVERCRAFT (10) is in this up to her ears. Hopefully most got the $34 earlier in the week but you can still back her Each Way at $17. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Each Way on SHES A HOVERCRAFT (10) at $12 or better

There are two ways to play this race and which way you lean depends on your punting personality. I may be wrong but to my eye MAJOR MOTH (9) is a class above IDYLLIC (2) and will overcome his horror gate eight draw to prevail. That being said IDYLLIC (2) is a very clear second pick so I prefer playing targeted Trifectas rather than backing The Moth straight out even though $1.80 does represent overs IMO. 

SUGGESTED BETS:  

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 2/ 3,11: $30 gets 1500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 2/ 12,13: $10 gets 500%

The top four chances look very clear here but they are 2YO trotters so rather than fiddling about I think we just back KEAYANG NINJA (10) straight out. Hopefully most got the $2.70 available early door because he is now $2.15 and may start odds upon. If you can bet now do because the price is evaporating fast. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win on KEAYANG NINJA (10)

I am personally staggered that LADIES IN RED (8) has never come in shorter than $1.60 given she’s proven how much better than she is than her contemporaries in this division. That being said TOUGH TILLY (2) has just as much an edge over the rest as LADIES IN RED (8) has over her so this does look the perfect exotic event. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi First Four: 8/ 2/ 1,4,7,9,11/ 1,4,7,9,11 ($60 gets 300%) 

On face value this looks like a race you’d love to play in but with some conjecture over what happens early and so many horse flying I’ve ultimately opted to stay out. It will be a great spectacle however and we are privileged to see the majestic LOCHINVAR ART (1) on the final night of 2020. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that LOCHINVAR ART (1) will win) 

Funny race this as OUR PRINCESS TIFFANY (2) will probably smash her rivals but if JANJUC (3) crosses early and MISS MCGONAGALL (6) follows across to lead then I just egt the feeling this might be closer than many believe. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$10 Win & $20 Place on MISS MCGONAGALL (6) at $4.50 or better

I thought I’d found one at a price when tipping SENITAS STRENGTH (6) on top but I wasn’t the only one to found here so I’m staying out of a race with so many permutations and scenarios. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that SENITAS STRENGTH (6) will win)

If KEAYANG NINJA (3) and SLEEPEE (10) both perform to their best the former will lead and win and the latter will run a very clear second place. From there you only need to find third and I’m going stagger-wild in pursuit of that final ingredient. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 10/ 4: $30 gets 3000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 10/ 2: $20 gets 2000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 10/ 5,9: $20 gets 1000%