Goodform Gameplan: Shepparton Sat 16th January

Ultimately, if there is no major market move opposing HONOLUA BAY (7) then you could almost back him at any price here as he has a major class edge on these but he did have an issue in his VSS semi-final failure so just be that little bit careful. I have marked him $1.40 and he’s currently $1.50. Make of that what you will. If you don’t like backing red figure faves then I can’t encourage you to play at all as exotics look very hairy to my eye. 

SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant (Confidence that HONOLUA BAY (7) will win) 

We have a pseudo-similar situation to Race 1 here as PATSBEACHSTORM (3) looks to have plenty on his rivals for talent, but we’re approaching him at very short odds first-up without a trial. The good news for those wanting to get involved is that the second pick looks much clearer. VINTAGE BLU (5) went massive through the Vicbred Super Series so can be isolated as the silver medallist in exotics but without any guarantees. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 5/ 4,6: $20 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 5/ 1,2,7: $10 gets 333.33%

Not sure what to do with this race so won’t do much at all. Given his history of quirks and the fact he’s second up from a fair break ALEPPO MURPHY (7) looks unders at $3 and HAVEHORSEWILLTRAVEL (4) represents some overs at $1.75 but the former horse is mega-talented when right so it’s all a bit off-putting from a punting perspective truth be told. 

SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant (Confidence that HAVEHORSEWILLTRAVEL (4) will win) 

Sadly, this looks another complete stay-out race as I don’t have hardened faith in the mega-hot favourite JAWBREAKER (2) but I’m also too cowardly to bet against him. If $5 or better becomes available about BONCEL BENJAMIN (6) I’ll entertain the notion as he’s better than all bar the untapped favourite when right but the current price of $4.40 – while overs – just isn’t tempting enough. 

SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant (Confidence that JAWBREAKER (2) will win) 

If you were a pro-punter satisfied with collecting small margins here you could have three bets in this race. Something on HEREHECOMES (11) at $11, twice as much on WATCH LIST (1) at $4 and twice as much again on SCORCHA (9) at $3.40, taking home a profit of some kind regardless which one of the three saluted. I’m not preaching to pros however so the biggest overs and best bet is SCORCHA (9) at $3.40 (marked $2.50). Just be aware that if you do back SCORCHA (9) to win different options will avail themselves on how you stagger the Quad. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$40 Win on SCORCHA (9) at $3 or better

In all fairness the $1.40 they’re still betting about MCLOVIN (7) is a gift so if you’re sweet to taste little fish he looks gilt-edged. If not it may be worth fiddling around with some trifling Trifecta combos just to stay involved. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 6/ 1: $15 gets 1500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 1/ 6: $10 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 6/ 2: $4 gets 400% 

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 2/ 6: 41 gets 100%

Decisions have been made and I’m happy to play super aggressively in the feature event as I see the being in single file for most of the journey and I can’t escape the notion that either the trial horse BULLETPROOF BOY (2) or the three-pegger MALCOLMS RHYTHM (3) virtually must run second the way the race will be staged. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 2,3/ 2,3,5: $40 gets 100% 

Alternatively, you can have decent place bets on both BULLETPROOF BOY (2) and MALCOLMS RHYTHM (3) right now and walk away with a handy profit if either finish second as I’ve very strongly predicted.

I’d be lying if I said it didn’t worry me that Josh Aiken has chosen MAJOR DELICO (4) over BREVITY (3) here – if indeed that’s the case – but I still think the two best winning chances are clearly BREVITY (3) and UNCLE JORD (9) so a Bundle Bet here paying any better than yours for theirs will do me just fine. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$40 Bundle Bet on BREVITY (3) & UNCLE JORD (9) at $2 or better.