TOC’s away… Ryan’s turn to play at Melton. Get the tips, strategy and Quaddies for Saturday’s action.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: KEAYANG VIPER (9) has progressed to this level quickly as a lightly raced 4yo and has looked stylish in her eight career starts, which have yielded six wins, including a good-quality victory at Menangle in NSW last week. This stable has a very good strike rate with these progressive types, particularly those they’ve been patient with. While most of her wins have come from racing at the top end of the map, she has the speed and ability to overcome a less favourable position.
GUNFORHIRE (7) is such a consistent type who, to be fair, hasn’t had much luck with barrier draws, which has often hurt his winning strike rate. He will need luck again, but you know he’ll be giving his all. SAVON DE ROCHE (8) has form around the top pick and has been terrific in those races, while also franked by her form either side of them. She’s a little awkwardly drawn, but she’s going too well not to consider. SPOOK CROCKER (4) is an interesting runner, with good Mount Gambier form, which rarely stacks up at this level, but he’s worth keeping safe. PISTOL PEARCE (3) has the speed to lead and may find this a little more suitable, while PLATINUM JIVE (5) has her fair share of talent and has claims if she gets the luck she needs.
BACK: KEAYANG VIPER (9) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: KEAYANG VIPER (9), GUNFORHIRE (7), SAVON DE ROCHE (8), PLATINUM JIVE (5)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: JILLIBY SNIPER (4) looks a nice 3yo who, like his stablemate in Race 1, has reached this level very quickly, with five wins from nine starts. He had a crack at qualifying for the Derby, and even though he dropped back to a more suitable grade last time, the quality of the opposition was strong. He has the barrier draw advantage over his main rival, Thunderfire, which may be the decisive factor. THUNDERFIRE (10) has been terrific in his lightly raced career of only 11 starts, and you can mount a case that he’s been most unlucky not to register more than four wins. He was terrific through the Vicbred Series and lost no admirers last week when sitting parked in good time and sticking on gamely. He’s a versatile type who can work or come with one run, so has that in his favour to overcome the back-row draw.
BANDIT EYES (7) failed last start at Wagga but was terrific in winning here the start prior when able to lead all the way in good time. If he recaptures that form, he’s well in the mix to win again, while stablemate REFUSAL (8) also creates plenty of interest having her first start for the camp. While she needs to improve significantly, this stable has a good record with new acquisitions. While there’s confidence around the top two picks, the minor end is wide open, with RONNIE THE HAMMER (6), TELEMACHUS (9) and KING SAINT (11) all in with a show.
BACK: JILLIBY SNIPER (4) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: JILLIBY SNIPER (4), THUNDERFIRE (11), BANDIT EYES (7), TELEMACHUS (9)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: QUIRKY CHARACTER (5) may fly under the radar here considering his numerical form, but he’s been going okay from bad draws, running good times from unwinnable positions. He’ll have a few in front of him again here, but there could be a bit of early speed to help him, and the smaller field to round them up is also in his favour. He should be a nice value play.
KEAYANG LAVITA (4) has been mixing it between standing starts and mobile conditions and racing well. Her failures have often been the result of having to do too much work in quick time. She has speed, but so do a couple inside and outside her, so the map could be a little tricky. However, if she gets the right trip, she’s hard to beat. KARBINE (3) has really delivered on his potential this preparation, winning six of 23 starts, with a couple of those victories coming in town at a good level. He can float into a nice enough position from the draw, and his tough run last start is worth forgiving as he looks to bounce back. IRON WOMEN (1) can be expected to utilise her speed from the pole draw, and over this trip that’s a big advantage. She is up in grade, however, so she may feel the pressure late. The chances don’t end there, with MAORIS MAC (6) possessing good ability, and even NAKEDTRUTH (2), EL RESAMO (7) and MEADOW VALLEY STAR (9) wouldn’t shock the way they’re going, as they can perform at this level with the right run. It’s an open race.
SELECTIONS: QUIRKY CHARACTER (5), KEAYANG LAVITA (4), KARBINE (3), IRON WOMEN (1)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: TIMMY TURTLE (4) looks very well placed against this line-up, considering his form last season against some quality types. He now has the benefit of one run back from a long break, where he ran well without being knocked around. He goes to the front row now to utilise his gate speed over the short trip, and if he’s come on from last start, he looks very hard to beat and one of the best of the night.
KEAYANG GYPSY (7) is ever consistent and racing well this preparation. Despite the draw, connections may elect to roll forward under these favourable conditions to race close to the speed. She was racing smarter types last time, albeit in a small field. DELS DESTINY (5) is often dependent on tempo, as he’s a sit-and-sprint type, but he’s been in nice form of late, including a win here two starts back. Look for him late. KYVALLEY MICHAEL (8) was racing well, but he’s been off his game in his past few runs. He’s back in a suitable grade, so improvement wouldn’t surprise. HAY JET (3) is a most interesting runner who hasn’t been seen since 2024, when he notched three wins from three starts in easier grade. He’s had one trial leading into this, where they didn’t go overly quickly, but he did hit the line well, although he looked to be knocking up late. He will need the run but watch him with interest.
BACK: TIMMY TURTLE (4) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: TIMMY TURTLE (4), KEAYANG GYPSY (7), DELS DESTINY (5), KYVALLEY MICHAEL (8)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: COLTRANE (6) made a nice return last start at Geelong, where he drifted back and copped a check from an unruly runner. He took a bit of time to get balanced thereafter, but when he did, he hit the line very well. There doesn’t look to be much pressure in the race, which is a slight concern for a horse who likes to come with one run, but he looks to have more upside than most of the opposition here.
AGAINST THE BRIDLE (7) is in a purple patch of form, and that’s largely due to his manners and ability to put himself up on the pace and grind them down. That pattern may make him a sitting shot for the favourite, but he’ll be in it for a long way. CALABASAS (3) is worth forgiving for her last run, where she started off the back row and was wiped out at the start. Prior to that, she was a winner at this track, albeit in an easier race, but deserves consideration. NIGHT FLIGHT (2) is a very quick beginner and looks a comfortable leader here. He’s been consistent this season and is a threat over the short trip, but he’s come up empty-handed in six starts at this track.
BACK: COLTRANE (6) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: COLTRANE (6), AGAINST THE BRIDLE (7), CALABASAS (3), NIGHT FLIGHT (2)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: ROCKY VALLEY (2) could be open to sharp improvement here, getting a good draw to show his versatility against opposition that seems more favourable than what he’s been facing. He did lead and fade over the longer trip three back, but maybe he spent too many tickets early, whereas this draw seems a lot more favourable to have a look for the top or find good cover. He can give a sight at decent value.
ALDEBARAN SUSANNE (6) returns to the front row and can show her good gate speed from the same draw she was able to find the pegs from three back, where she finished a good 2nd. This trip and class suit her, and she will be hard to beat.
CARLA PIXIE (8) returns to mobile conditions, which is preferable after a few standing starts in SA. Prior to that, she ran some nice races at this track from the same draw with a low SP profile, so she’s in the mix again despite needing some luck. ALDEBARAN SUE (7) hasn’t been trotting well since her stint in Queensland, but it’s hard to leave her out against this opposition considering her ability. If she can show any glimpse of what she’s capable of, improvement wouldn’t surprise.
SELECTIONS: ROCKY VALLEY (2), ALDEBARAN SUSANNE (6), CARLA PIXIE (8), ALDEBARAN SUE (7)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: KENNYS SON (5) is a quick beginner under mobile conditions and gets the opportunity to race forward here and be given every hope over the short trip. He was able to lead and win in good time at Shepparton two runs back with Herbertson aboard and has a decent record at this track to suggest that if he gets the right trip, he’s the one to catch.
LOCKSLEY CAVALIER (6) was well supported here when first up, but he ran well below par and was sent back to the trials. He stepped out well in that trial to suggest the performance may have been an anomaly. He has shown decent ability at a stronger level than he meets here, so expect him to bounce back quickly. DOSSIER (2) is starting to get back to some decent form with a couple of placings recently. She has won at this track in this type of grade, and the soft draw helps her chances of going close. MISS KOMMUNICATION (3), MAJESTIC MONARCH (4) and KYVALLEY JAGGER (8) would all surprise with victory but have claims at the minor end.
BACK: KENNYS SON (5) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: KENNYS SON (5), LOCKSLEY CAVALIER (6), DOSSIER (2), MAJESTIC MONARCH (4)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: ISOLATION (7) drops back significantly in grade after a good 3rd here last week, where he didn’t have the best luck in transit early and still found the line well. He’s reunited with Herbertson here, who tends to get the best out of him, evidenced by driving four of his five wins this season. The extra distance helps him take up a forward position and control the tempo from the top end, making him hard to run down.
SEATHESTARS (4) is a high-quality 4yo who comes here third up after two runs in the Vicbred Series, the first where he was very good when 3rd and able to map behind the leader, then was beaten a long way in the final without an obvious excuse. He’s now had a month between runs, and if you purely assess him on the terrific runs he put in last season in the top 3yo races, he’s clearly got the class, but it’s hard to know where he’s at.
TOORAM MAGIC (6) resumed with a nice 2nd behind an in-form horse last time out and strung together some solid performances last campaign. The map might be a little tricky, but if he gets a good trail into it, he can finish off late. MY LITTLE BO (2) is a quick beginner and will look to map behind the leader or, most likely, three pegs. She’s much better over the short trip, but her run here last week was solid enough to consider.
SELECTIONS: ISOLATION (7), SEATHESTARS (4), TOORAM MAGIC (6), MY LITTLE BO (2)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: RUBYS DREAM (5) is a very quick beginner, evidenced by her two recent wins here from gates five and seven, where she was able to lead over the short trip and run very good time for this grade. This race doesn’t present as any harder than last time, so if she can cross and lead, a repeat of that performance can be enough to get the job done.
IJUSTCALLEDTOSAY (6) is a high-quality opponent who’s turned in some terrific runs this season, including three wins. He’s most likely forced into a map-negative position here, which will make it hard to bridge the margin to the leaders, but he’ll be giving his all. FREIGHT SHAKER (2) is another consistent type drawn favourably to get a nice map from the inside draw. He ran a PB time last time out, and if he can improve on that, he can go close. The rest all have claims at the minor end, with a slight leaning towards THUNDA STRUCK (3) as the best of those.
SELECTIONS: RUBYS DREAM (5), IJUSTCALLEDTOSAY (6), FREIGHT SHAKER (2), THUNDA STRUCK (3)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #9 KEAYANG VIPER – 2 units (win)
R2 #4 JILLIBY SNIPER – 2 units (win)
R4 #4 TIMMY TURTLE – 3 units (win)
R5 #6 COLTRANE – 2 units (win)
R7 #5 KENNYS SON – 1 unit (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
7,8,9/4,10/1,3,4,5/4,7
QUADDIE
3,6,7/2,3,5,6,7,8/5,6/4,7
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer-generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.
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