Ryan Phelan has your tips and strategy for Boort Cup Day on Sunday.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: SECRET CHANCE (7) didn’t have much luck on debut when moderately away from the inside and held up at a vital stage with something to offer. There looks to be a few wanting to go forward off the front row, so a stalking run could be in her favour to present late and represent value.
KUALIGHT (5) suggested she wasn’t far away from winning last preparation against company that would be hard to beat here. However, I wasn’t enamoured with her recent trial, but she warrants respect nonetheless. AMADA VILLMA (3) is a quick beginner and may be able to get into a decent position from this draw and may find this more suitable than recent company she’s faced. HAWKESDALE DEED (6) was sent out $1.30 favourite on debut but was very plain. That sort of market confidence and respect for the stable keeps her under notice.
BACK: SECRET CHANCE (7) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: SECRET CHANCE (7), KUALIGHT (5), AMADA VILLMA (3), HAWKESDALE DEED (6)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: TO THE NINES (8) is first up since December with no trial, but strikes a suitable race compared to what he’s been exposed to last campaign as a 3yo. He competed admirably against the top echelon of his age in the Vicbred and Breeders Crown series, often from bad draws. If he’s anywhere near fit, he can win this.
JAMES GARNER (1) is rarely far away in these types of races and can potentially hunt up from the draw and not map too far off them. He is 2 from 2 at this track. ANIMADO (7) has been racing well from awkward set-ups, which he has again here, but with even luck can be strong late. WAZOWSKI (3) is a quick beginner who often commands market respect but is yet to win in 12 attempts for the new astute stable.
BACK: TO THE NINES (8) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: TO THE NINES (8), JAMES GARNER (1), ANIMADO (7), WAZOWSKI (3)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: FLOJOS BEST (3) is a very consistent mare who has been very consistent this preparation. Her sectionals from the back were terrific last start, she won everywhere but the post prior and was going to lead before that only to go off stride. If she can get good cover here, she’ll be right in the finish at value.
LEWIELEWIS (1) was crossed from this draw last time out but was good there, as he has been most starts this preparation. MISTER JIMARINGLE (5) is second-up from a break here and never really got a chance to get into it last time. With added fitness his best form brings him right into it. IDEAL BANDIT (6) showed ability in his 3yo season, his trials into this were ok but has a tough draw to contend with first up.
BACK: FLOJOS BEST (3) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: FLOJOS BEST (3), LEWIELEWIS (1), MISTER JIMARINGLE (5), IDEAL BANDIT (6)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: PRESIDENTIALCHANGE (8) is a veteran pacer who looks well suited here based on recent outings. This appears more suitable to the quality he’s faced recently and can punch through at the start and be strong with a well-timed run.
EAGLE MAJOR (7) is third-up from a break and was good last time sustaining a long run. With the tempo on he can work into the race over the last lap. REGAL ROCK (9) has developed a nice relationship with Hannah Parish, winning 2 from 3, and is another who is reliant on a fast early tempo. YANKEE RAIN (5) has a solid SP profile and hasn’t been too far away this preparation but hasn’t won in well over a year.
SELECTIONS: PRESIDENTIALCHANGE (8), EAGLE MAJOR (7), REGAL ROCK (9), YANKEE RAIN (5)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: JOHNS BOY (6) has earned his 20m back mark, but the small field may work to his advantage. He was good off 30m last time at Kilmore and that was a better quality opposition than he faces here.
DARK THUNDER (1) has only had two starts under stand conditions but has been soundly away both times. He was a good last start winner and although he’s taking on a field of stablemates can give cheek with any luck. FROSTY GIRL (3) needs to bounce back here off a poor run and trials, but her best performances come under the stand conditions, so she is open to improvement. MAESTRO (2) hasn’t won for over a year but does relish these types of handicap conditions and his recent efforts have been ok.
BACK: JOHNS BOY (6) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: JOHNS BOY (6), DARK THUNDER (1), FROSTY GIRL (3), MAESTRO (2),
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: REALLY SMARTIE (4) was very good at his debut run at Shepparton where he showed speed from a wide draw before sustaining a run to only be nabbed right on the post. He has a more favourable draw and set-up now and if he finds the top will be hard to run down.
NO EMOTION (7) is a consistent type who will need the right tempo to work into the race but his best is good enough. FAVOURITEHIGHLIGHT (8) has found form from better draws; she will need luck here but is going well enough. SOAR (6) doesn’t win out of turn but can be good off one run if the tempo works in his favour.
BACK: REALLY SMARTIE (4) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: REALLY SMARTIE (4), NO EMOTION (7), FAVOURITEHIGHLIGHT (8), SOAR (6)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: CRIME WRITER (8) looks well suited under these conditions having raced well up in grade this preparation. He relishes the longer journey and trails through off what appears a high-pressure front row for the tempo to produce a strong finish.
MERRYWOOD PAUL (2) is a speedy beginner and won’t be afraid to hold top spot based on his win at Cobram over this journey back in December. His form since has been good and he was luckless last start. SHADOW CELT (9) has been very good on the clock his past few and if he gets the right trail into the race expect him to be strong late. DHAULAGIRI (10) is the tried and true in these country cup races, always thereabouts and likes the races the longer they go.
BACK: CRIME WRITER (8) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: CRIME WRITER (8), MERRYWOOD PAUL (2), SHADOW CELT (9), DHAULAGIRI (10)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: ENABLE ME (4) was very well backed earlier in the week at Shepparton before the meeting was abandoned, so where there’s smoke there’s fire. He was a winner four runs ago and a repeat of that would be good enough against these.
SKADI (6) hasn’t been afforded any favours from the draw but doesn’t mind going forward in his races and hanging tough. TELL A TALL STORY (2) returns to its former stable and could be open to improvement on its recent form. STANDANDDELIVER (8) has been a little better his past few and the trailing draw helps.
SELECTIONS: ENABLE ME (4), SKADI (6), TELL A TALL STORY (2), STANDANDDELIVER (8)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: FREMARKS PEGGY (6) has turned around her form this season and has built a good association with James Herbertson. She’s a little chancy from the standing start but if she brings her manners, she’s the testing material.
DREAMS OF LOVE (7) has shown encouraging signs in three runs for the new stable, including last time out where she led and won, only to lose on protest for shifting out. She’s yet to win under stand conditions but a clean getaway will put her right in it. LOUIEVILLE LASS (2) won for the first time in four years on Wednesday, rewarded for her consistency lately keeps her in consideration. VAN DOREN (4) starts off the 10m but normally begins ok and will be thereabouts.
SELECTIONS: FREMARKS PEGGY (6), DREAMS OF LOVE (7), LOUIEVILLE LASS (2), VAN DOREN (4)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #7 SECRET CHANCE – 0.5 unit (win)
R2 #8 TO THE NINES – 2.5 units (win)
R3 #3 FLOJOS BEST – 1 unit (win)
R5 #6 JOHNS BOY – 2 units (win)
R6 #4 REALLY SMARTIE – 2.5 units (win)
R7 #8 CRIME WRITER – 1.5 unit (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
3,5,6,7/1,8/1,2,3,5,6/4,7,8,9
QUADDIE
1,3,6/4,7,8/2,3,8,9,10/2,4,6
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
Chances are you’re about to lose. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
