Tim O’Connor has drilled deep into the form for tonight’s Kilmore Pacing Cup meeting.
Race 1
OVERVIEW: Plenty of winning possibilities in this 0W/15.0K event, but I’ll side with MONTANA PRIDE (5) for Team Herbertson. I really fancied him last weekend at Cranbourne based off his outstanding recent form, but he was double crossed from the pole and never really looked a winning chance. Despite that, he was only beaten 5.1m by My Little Bo. Not sure where he ends up in the run, but Herbie might press forward with not a lot of speed drawn underneath him. Think he’ll run well. CRUSADER MISS (12) was absolutely outstanding winning first-up for the campaign and I just loved the way he surged through the line. I fancy he can make a great fist of this despite the wide back row gate over the 1690. MOMENTUM SHIFT (7) was an eye-catcher chasing home Franco Novelist at Shepparton and then got the perfect run to score at Melton last week, while LUVA SCRAP (9) is proving very honest this preparation and heads a list of others that wouldn’t surprise with the right trip.
SELECTIONS: MONTANA PRIDE (5), CRUSADER MISS (12), MOMENTUM SHIFT (7), LUVA SCRAP (9)
Race 2
OVERVIEW: Really warming to ALRIGHTY (11) as a horse and think he’s currently in career-best form for Andy and Kate Gath. Two starts ago at Melton he made a mistake early, settled five back on the pegs and darted home to run sixth behind Jilliby Dreamlover in what was a good effort. He then had a few weeks off into The Delvin Dancer at Ballarat and ran a cracker for second to the star Jilliby Ballerini, beaten just 3m in a very slick last half. I don’t like being wide off the back row at Kilmore over 1690, but have him on top. ALDEBARAN BROOKE (2) was very good three-wide for the last lap when narrowly beaten by Thunda Struck at Melton last Friday, and might cross to the fence here and take a trail on the speedy MISTER BLINDSIDE (4). QUIRKY CHARACTER (1) looks a really progressive talent who has won his last two in great style, but I’m worried about the map for him, while KYVALLEY MAVEN (8) led and was brave in that Delvin Dancer clash and would just need the breaks to come his way to be a factor here.
BACK: ALRIGHTY (11) – 1 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: ALRIGHTY (11), ALDEBARAN BROOKE (2), QUIRKY CHARACTER (1), KYVALLEY MAVEN (8)
Race 3
OVERVIEW: MY LITTLE BO (3) was very impressive leading and winning at Cranbourne last weekend, and she looks a chance of finding the top again here. She is racing in good form and should give a great sight out in front on a track where the pegs is usually a huge advantage. While I’m in her corner largely from a map point of view, I do think JILLIBY ILLUMINATE (4) might be a better horse. She was first-up at Ballarat on January 24 and closed off powerfully to just miss leader Big Sledge Hammer in a slick last half. She ran past favourite UNIQUELY IDEAL (5) there, and while Emma Stewart’s charge was a shade disappointing following a strong trial, she must be regarded as one of the contenders here. The Thackeray stablemates in SCHEMEING (1) and NORMS LADY (2) should get nice peg-line runs, but CLYMENUS (9) is favoured to beat them home on the back of his impressive run-on win at Melton last Friday.
SELECTIONS: MY LITTLE BO (3), JILLIBY ILLUMINATE (4), UNIQUELY IDEAL (5), CLYMENUS (9)
Race 4
OVERVIEW: GOLDEN TRIBE (2) worked hard early and absorbed some pressure when finding the front in a hot 4YO&5YO Championship at Cranbourne last weekend, but did well to run fourth and only be beaten 4.1m. His first-up run prior at Shepparton was off the charts when he came three and four wide in a race-fastest last half to finish third. Think he either leads or takes a trail on THE BRIDE (4) here and gets his chance to break through. THE BRIDE (4) is usually driven aggressively by Alex Ashwood and ran second to HES NO ROMEO (1) at Shepparton recently, with the latter sitting parked to score. He also has good gate speed, but often takes a sit in his races and might be three back the fence. MAXY WANTS TO PLAY (8) was huge winning from last at Mildura latest – running past stablemate Hot Deal in the process – and will be the one closing hard late.
BACK: GOLDEN TRIBE (2) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: GOLDEN TRIBE (2), THE BRIDE (4), HES NO ROMEO (1), MAXY WANTS TO PLAY (8)
Race 5
OVERVIEW: JILLIBY BALLERINI (1) has won all three of her starts since returning from a brief New Zealand campaign, with a dazzling display of speed to claim The Delvin Dancer at Ballarat latest. She’s one of the best trotters in the country and looks awfully hard to beat here from the good draw. There’s plenty of interest in the start, with key dangers IM BOBBY (4) and ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (6) drawn off the front row. Do they have a crack at crossing? And is it possible? JILLIBY BALLERINI (1) was able to hold ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (6) when they clashed at Cranbourne on January 3, and the latter did enough to hold IM BOBBY (4) last weekend at the same track when they ran second and third to megastar Keayang Zahara. Based off that, I think the pole-marker might just do enough to keep the front. IM BOBBY (4) and ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (6) are the obvious threats to the favourite, while reigning Inter Dominion champ ARCEE PHOENIX (7) is not at his absolute best but remains a must for trifectas and First 4s.
BACK: JILLIBY BALLERINI (1) – 4 units (win)
SELECTIONS: JILLIBY BALLERINI (1), IM BOBBY (4), ROCKINWITHATTITUDE (6), ARCEE PHOENIX (7)
Race 6
OVERVIEW: Great to see the Kilmore Pacing Cup elevated to Group 1 level, and what a battle we have between champion LEAP TO FAME (8) and New Zealand raider REPUBLICAN PARTY (2). The Kiwi is first-up from back-to-back Group 1 wins in his home country and importantly draws to find the front and control this contest over the middle trip of 2180m. He’s yet to beat home LEAP TO FAME (8), but did get awfully close when flashing late in last year’s A G Hunter Cup. Most recently, he chased him for second in the Group 1 Free-For-All on November 14 at Addington. There’s not a heap between the two and the gate advantage gives REPUBLICAN PARTY (2) a great chance, but I’m still with LEAP TO FAME (8) after his incredible death-seat track-record win over Kingman in the Cranbourne Gold Cup last weekend. The pair should run the quinella, with last-start Vicbred Super Series victor MIKI TO SUCCESS (4) fancied of the Emma Stewart trio and JILLIBY NITRO (6) expected to run well after charging through the line to grab fourth at Cranbourne, beaten just 5.6m.
SELECTIONS: LEAP TO FAME (8), REPUBLICAN PARTY (2), MIKI TO SUCCESS (4), JILLIBY NITRO (6)
Race 7
OVERVIEW: CATCH A WAVE (8) is a superstar pacer who wouldn’t be out of place in the night’s Group 1 Kilmore Pacing Cup, but finds himself in the race below. He’s a horse that can leave you scratching your head at times, and while his two runs this campaign haven’t been anything to get excited about, he strikes a very winnable assignment here. There looks good speed off the front to aid his chances, with the likes of LOUIE LOU I (5), SMOKEN ACE (6) and MACH DAN (7) all likely to press forward. SMOKEN ACE (6) has struck up a great relationship with James Herbertson and led all the way to make it back-to-back wins at Ballarat on January 24, MACH DAN (7) had Leap To Fame’s back in the Ballarat Pacing Cup on the same night but was run past by CATCH A WAVE (8), while LOUIE LOU I (5) is a fast horse who wouldn’t shock with the right trip.
BACK: CATCH A WAVE (8) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: CATCH A WAVE (8), SMOKEN ACE (6), MACH DAN (7), LOUIE LOU I (5)
Race 8
OVERVIEW: The exact same field (and almost identical barriers) from the heat at Cranbourne last weekend lines up for the Vin Knight Memorial Pace Final here. In the qualifier, GHOST OF TIME (5) was able to lead easily, control the race and dash too quickly at good odds. He was first-up there and should show natural improvement, so I think he has to go on top. He’s a nice horse at his best. MAJOR ART (1) looked a big hope of running down the leader first-up from New Zealand for Jason Grimson, but couldn’t make up the ground. If the map’s the same, he gets his chance again. TWISTING BY (8) drew nine last time but gets eight here, so might settle along the fence. He usually hits the line hard. ATA RANGI (2) was good from three pegs last week and is just favoured ahead of the others in what is a wide-open race if settling positions or tempo is different to the heat.
SELECTIONS: GHOST OF TIME (5), MAJOR ART (1), TWISTING BY (8), ATA RANGI (2)
Race 9
OVERVIEW: Looks a bit of a match race between the Emma Stewart runners here, and I’m in the corner of the unbeaten SIGNATURE LOOK (7). He’s still got plenty to learn, but was super sitting parked to defeat CO CAPTAIN (1) on debut in fast time at Maryborough, and then led and held off KNIGHT FURY DAN (2) on January 24 at Ballarat. KNIGHT FURY DAN (2) was very brave from the chair there first-up from a break and likely crosses CO CAPTAIN (1) early to get to the fence. He rates as a huge winning chance. CO CAPTAIN (1) broke through for his maiden triumph at start three last time out and has nice ability, while the rest are probably headed by VIVID DREAM (4) and MISTER AMERICANO (3).
SELECTIONS: SIGNATURE LOOK (7), KNIGHT FURY DAN (2), CO CAPTAIN (1), VIVID DREAM (4)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R2 #11 ALRIGHTY – 1 unit (win)
R4 #2 GOLDEN TRIBE – 3 units (win)
R5 #1 JILLIBY BALLERINI – 4 units (win)
R7 #8 CATCH A WAVE – 2 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
4,5,7,9,10,12/1,2,8,11/3,4,5,9/1,2,4
QUADDIE
1,4,6/2,8/5,6,7,8/1,5,8
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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