The “early crow” is one of the most dreaded sayings in racing.
Primarily it refers to someone declaring a horse is “home” and can’t be beaten in a race.
Just about every punter will tell you a story how someone has gone the “early crow” on them at some stage and things have almost instantly turned to custard.
You’d think after 40 years in this game I would know better.
But, back on April 13 in this very column, I went the “early crow”.
My sincere apologies go to Team Lee for so prematurely suggesting they were poised to end 12 years of unwavering dominance from the powerhouse Emma Stewart and Clayton Tonkin stable in Victoria’s statewide and/or metro training premierships.
Yes, Team Lee did blast out of the gates with a big lead, but Stewart and Tonkin were unusually quiet, largely by design, in the first three months of 2026.
Stewart warned me as much.
“That’s the best thing you could’ve written, it’s really fired Clayton up to get the job done now,” she laughed when I called her days after the column.
As usual, Stewart was right.
The rampage since, especially over the past 10 weeks, has been something to behold.
And while this has been Team Lee’s quieter time and many of their stars are close to racetrack returns, the battle already looks over.
They have gone from trailing Team Lee by 21 wins statewide when I penned that April column, to leading them by 25 wins.
In the past 10 weeks, Stewart and Tonkin have had at least one runner (and often two) in 46 pacing races at Melton.
They have won 32 of those.
The romp continued last Saturday night with four wins from four races they contested with a combined five horses.
Their wins came with Fairplay, Cardigan Sniper (Some High gave them the quinella in that race), Apollostorm and The Last Trip.
And it’s fair to say all four look to have plenty more wins ahead of them.
What’s more daunting for the opposition is the next few months are what really play to Stewart and Tonkin’s strength, reams and reams of feature juvenile racing.
Also strongly on the Stewart and Tonkin raider is a third win in the world’s richest pacing race, the $1.5 million TAB Eureka in its new November 21 timeslot. They won the inaugural 2023 race with Encipher and did it again with Bay Of Biscay last year.
Although they no longer train early TAB Eureka favourite Loucasso (he’s now with Seaton Grima), a look through the early markets shows the strong hand they could potentially hold depending on how many slot holders want to team with them.
Before we look through them, it’s important to clear one horse up. I’m not sure how or why, but the injury plagued and unbeaten Always Hot is second favourite in some TAB Eureka markets.
That urgently needs addressing. Stewart has already publicly said he’s not in work and won’t tackle the race.
But the stable looks set for multiple runners again.
Last year’s runner-up Fox Dan had a disappointing Brisbane winter campaign, but time is on his side and we know how dangerous he can be at his best.
It’s similar with Brooklyn Dan, who started Brisbane well, but ran well below his best in the Queensland Derby. He’s a class act.
“The Last Trip and The Art Of Success are heading towards it (Eureka). Cigano, The Highlight Reel and Storms Collide are all chances as well,” Stewart said.
