It’s the $200 challenge and before Dan Mielicki, Jason Bonnington, Gareth Hall and Brittany Graham prepare to beam tonight’s Breeders Crown finals into your lounge room we got them to deliver their game plans.
The TrotsVision.com.au trio and Graham, who will front Sky Racing’s coverage, served up their best bets, best value, best roughies and quaddies ahead of the stunning 10-race card at Tabcorp Park Melton.
Here are their $200 Game Plans:
JASON BONNINGTON
BEST BET ($50 WIN)
RACE 10 No. 10 AMAZING DREAM
Sometimes you learn more opposing horses than supporting them. Last weekend, I doubted this 10-time Group 1-winning megastar. She didn’t win that Breeders Crown Graduate FFA, but it would require an exhaustive search to find a better beaten run. Back up to the middle trip tonight, she’ll watch on while the front-rowers fight for early roles before champion reinsman Anthony Butt whips around to face the breeze then puts them to the sword.
BEST VALUE ($30 WIN)
RACE 1 No. 11 HONOLUA BAY
On his best night, this recent Stewart-stable recruit ranks right among Australia’s most gifted pacers. And what he did when winning the 4YO and 5YO Championship first-up from a break beggars comprehension. He hasn’t been seen since that breathtaking success, which is a minor concern, but do not be deterred by his nasty draw. Not only will the heat be on early in tonight’s opening event, but this guy is also as good when launching late as when he leads them up.
BEST ROUGHIE ($10 EACH-WAY)
RACE 2 No. 12 KYVALLEY HOTSPUR
The late, great Graeme Lang always said: “it’s neither a good nor bad barrier draw until after the race”. Most punters failed to listen. The stats say that this multiple Derby-winning trotter has only won in front, but stats often lie. Not only is he the best horse in tonight’s Breeders Crown final for three-year-old trotting males, he’s also much more versatile than many punters fathom. At $9, he’s an each-way bet to nothing.
THE EARLY QUADDIE
RACES 1-4
2,11/1,2,3,4,6,12,13/2,5,7,13/6
$50 for 89.29%
The second leg of this Early Quaddie is crucial as I’m playing wide. If I can nail something at value there then the rest should take care itself, particularly given this more closely represents a treble with Plymouth Chubb almost certain to salute at prohibitive odds in the fourth event.
THE QUADDIE
RACES 5-8
1,13/5,10/1,2,4,6,8,12,13/4,8,9,11,13
$50 for 35.71%
I’m opting for an aggressive start through the first two legs in tonight’s Quaddie and I’m opening the shoulders late. If one of the favourites claims the three-year-old pacing fillies’ final, then that will make life hard. But if we catch a split then this could pay mighty well.
BRITTANY GRAHAM
BEST BET ($50 WIN)
RACE 1 No. 2 MACH DAN
Numerically Mach Dan’s recent form lines certainly don’t jump off the page, but after having a run of ordinary barrier draws this preparation, he has finally snagged a suitable gate. He has taken on some hot races this time in and hasn’t disgraced himself despite some unsuitable trips. With the gate speed to have a solid early look, if he finds the lead, he will be mighty hard to run down.
BEST VALUE ($50 WIN)
RACE 7 No. 1 LIFES A BEACH
Being forced to play second fiddle to Bettor Twist all season long, I think the Breeders Crown three-year-old fillies’ clash profiles perfectly for Lifes A Beach to get one back on her foe. On speed maps, it appears as though Beach Music will lead and cop extensive heat from the rough and tough Bettor Twist. As soon as David Moran makes his move on Ladies In Red, you can also expect the tempo to increase a further notch, making her task even tougher when she will likely have to go it alone. With all this being said, it looks as though Lifes A Beach will get all the favours and be sitting like a sniper waiting to fire when the sprint lane becomes available.
BEST ROUGHIE ($5 EACH-WAY)
RACE 8 No. 7 JUST HOPE
It would be remiss of me to not include this girl in my plays for Saturday night after banging on about her during Monday evening’s barrier draw when she opened at $151. That price is no longer available, but she is still an enormous win and place quote, so it doesn’t hurt to have a small interest. The draw hurts, but as a Group 1 winner already this season, she is obviously talented and should be peaking for this event.
THE EARLY QUADDIE
RACES 1-4
2/1,2,3,4,6/2,6,7,9,13/1,3,4,6
$40 for 40%
With the majority of this Early Quaddie being made up of juvenile trotting affairs, it could be very tough going and therefore I’ve gone wide for the last three legs. With Mach Dan my best of the night, we will start off one-out with him before hopefully covering all bases later on.
THE QUADDIE
RACES 5-8
1,2,9,13/5,10/1,2,4,12/4,5,7,8,9,11
$50 for 26.04%
With the barrier draws making for some ultra-competitive races on paper, I’m hoping to play wide throughout to see if we can jag a solid result. I’m willing to take a little risk during the second leg by having just the two class runners so we can play a little wider in what I’m finding to be a very even two-year-old fillies division as the closer.
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GARETH HALL
BEST BET ($25 WIN)
RACE 7 No. 12 LADIES IN RED
The three-year-old fillies’ final promises to be the race of the night and I think Ladies In Red will be the last lady standing in what’s set to be a battle we won’t forget. Tay Tay and Treachery will produce the early burn, Beach Music and Bettor Twist will go to war, then Ladies In Red will have the last say and class will get her over the line despite the tricky draw.
BEST VALUE ($15 WIN)
RACE 5 No. 1 HEZA SON OF AGUN
Matthew Craven’s two-year-old has proven he can work early, follow a strong speed, then still finish off and I think he was the run of the semi-finals last Saturday night. He’s defeated most of his rivals, including the odds-on favourite Catch A Wave, and you’ll get a great sight from gate one.
BEST ROUGHIE ($10 PLACE)
RACE 8 No. 1 HEAVENLY SIGN
The two-year-old fillies’ final is the toughest race of the night, but I can’t believe the price for Heavenly Sign. I think she can hold her spot from gate one and finish in the top three. Three starts back she defeated Heza Son Of Agun, who I’m tipping in the boys’ division. And I can get around $9 a place against her own sex. Terrific value.
THE EARLY QUADDIE
RACES 1-4
11/1,2,3,4,6,12/2/3,6
$24 for 200%
I really like a few in the early part of the meeting so I will take a punt and go skinny in three of the four legs.
THE QUADDIE
RACES 5-8
1,3,5,13/4,5,10/1,2,8,11,12,13/1,4,5,8,9,11,12
$100 for 19.84%
1,13/4,5,10/12/1,4,5,11
$26 for 108.33%
I will play a couple of Quaddies tonight. I will go wide in one and try to cover most of the bases, while in the other I will go skinny with a few of my best bets.
DAN MIELICKI
BEST BETS ($65 WIN ALL-UP)
RACE 6 No. 5 ACT NOW
Has the gate speed to lead and it’s an asset that’s worked to his advantage throughout a short career to date. This year he has continued to get better and is a more complete pacer now.
The main threat could be from stablemate Beyond Delight, who carved out some extraordinary splits behind him in last week’s semi-final.
The barriers might be the difference again.
RACE 10 No. 1 MAAJIDA
She was simply too far back in a fast-run race last start, but powered home in exceptional splits and finally draws a gate. She is capable of leading, but is likely to get the protected run behind her stablemate Techys Angel, with Amazing Dream doing the tough work without cover.
BEST VALUE ($20 WIN x $30 PLACE)
RACE 5 No. 1 HEZA SON OF AGUN
He was the only horse in his semi-final to qualify by not racing on the pegs. He powered home in fast sectionals and made ground on favourite Catch A Wave, whom he’s beaten before. With a significantly better barrier draw, I can see him storming through late as he can be lethal off a sit.
BEST ROUGHIE ($5 WIN x $20 PLACE)
RACE 3 No. 10 ALDEBARAN MISTY
Got too far back in her heat, but she worked home strongly and I think she represents value at around 25-1.
THE EARLY QUADDIE
RACES 1-4
2,11/1,2,3,4,6,13/1,2,9,10,13/3,6
$30 for 25%
I thought the value might come through the middle legs. There is plenty of depth and plenty of winning hopes in races two and three.
THE QUADDIE
RACES 5-8
1,3,4,13/5/2,4,12/1,4,8,9,11
$30 for 50%
I am taking my best bet Act Now one-out in leg two. One of the three big guns should win the third leg and I’m hoping for a value result in the last, which looks the most open race to me.
