Jason Bonnington has spent hours pouring over the form so you don't have to and has delivered his race-by-race analysis of Saturday night's metropolitan meeting from Melton.

Enjoy!

Race 1:

OVERVIEW: While many punters prioritise Mile Rates and last halves (final 800m) when assessing form, there’s little, if any doubt that Lead-Times over middle journeys matter more than both. In fact, at metropolitan level, Lead Times have their greatest impact on contests staged at this level and that should prove true once again tonight. The first question punters must answer is thus. Can POST GAME (2) muster enough pace to hold the front, or will he be crossed by BET ON THE TIGER (3) who hasn’t been chased off the gate of late but likely will be here. If BET ON THE TIGER (3) crosses as seems likely then there’s every chance he will hand his advantage to more in-form co-habitant MAGIC MIKE (6). Regardless of who wins that early war, one thing seems predictable if not completely certain; that with the lead role coveted by multiple runners, there should be early pace. If these horses, at this level, record a Lead Time in the low 44’s then second row runners LIP READER (9) and THE CHANCER (10) will benefit greatly. And that’s what we’re expecting. Despite being a better miler than anything else, if THE CHANCER (10) – who will have thrived off recent exposure at metro grade – gets carted in by LIP READER (9) late then his superior pace should prove the difference. That being said, LIP READER (9) is also well placed if the pace is on early while previously referenced duo MAGIC MIKE (6) and POST GAME (2) are also in this up to their ears with whomever finds the front obviously enjoying an enormous advantage, particularly given the fact POST GAME (2) is one from one when leading and MAGIC MIKE (6) has never missed a place when dictating terms in transit.

EARLY SPEED: 3,6 + 2

SELECTIONS: THE CHANCER (10), LIP READER (9), MAGIC MIKE (6), POST GAME (2)

RATINGS: 10/ 9/ 6/ 2/ 8/ 7/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 1

SUGGESTED BET: Flexi Box Trifecta: 2,6,9 & 10 ($30 gets 125%)

Race 2:

OVERVIEW: There’s only six runners engaged in tonight’s 3YO offering but half the field harbour exceptional – almost even – winning hopes. Leading the charge is LOUIE LOU I (4) for fairly transparent reasons. Not only does Snooze Svanosio’s versatile son of Sweet Lou draw inside his two chief threats, but he also has the early speed to leverage that alley advantage. All things being equal you’d think that LOUIE LOU I (4) would plan to cross and hold, but if THE REAL SHERLOCK (6) launches like he did at semi-final level of the Vicbred series there’s always the option of crashing to the poles then trailing in transit. And anyone that’s witnessed the acceleration LOUIE LOU I (4) possesses of an ice cold trip knows he’d rip a sizzling quarter should he pick the sit. The obvious – ridiculously obvious – dangers are THE REAL SHERLOCK (6) who stuck to his guns staggeringly well in that aforementioned VSS semi after leading out in an insane 42.2-sec Lead Time and THE FINAL COLLECT (5) who has a three-all head-to-head record against LOUIE LOU I (4) and would love nothing more than Louie holding up and absorbing pressure from THE REAL SHERLOCK (6). If you’re desperate to play First Fours then choose your way to target that trio as podium finishers and throw in DEUCE COUPE (3) just ahead of STARZZZ DESTINY (2) for fourth.

EARLY SPEED: 4,6 + 2

SELECTIONS: LOUIE LOU I (4), THE REAL SHERLOCK (6), FINAL COLLECT (5), DEUCE COUPE (3)

RATINGS: 4/ 6/ 5/ 3/ 2/ 1

SUGGESTED BET: Flexi First Four: 4,5,6/ 4,5,6/ 4,5,6/ 2,3 ($30 gets 250%)

Race 3:

OVERVIEW: Much like tonight’s previous contest, this squaregaiting feature, the Chris How Trotters Cup, is far from blessed regarding overall numbers (six again) but, once again, claims can be made for half the competing combatants; or perhaps even more. Clearly, given her other-worldly talents, burgeoning champion QUEEN ELIDA (6) clearly holds the call. Unlike 99.9% of standardbreds and even the vast majority of superstars, QUEEN ELIDA (6) possesses an arsenal of weaponry which precludes her being vulnerable – at least typically vulnerable – to role-in-transit or top end tempo. That being said, if she’s ever somewhat susceptible, races like this with small fields and limited chances symbolize the closest thing to Kryptonite that she comprehends. If there’s one pseudo-certainty in this event, it’s that MUFASA METRO (4) will cross and lead with little mid-race pressure. Clearly, based upon that very fact, John Justice’s Great Southern Star silver medallist must have major winning claims, particularly given the fact he’s won six of the nine times he’s found and kept the top on Aussie soil. Then we have outstanding mare IM READY JET (5) resuming from a break. If, for any reason, QUEEN ELIDA (6) slightly overdoes things in her bid to dominate MUFASA METRO (4) then the mare can conquer all by having one last crack. Despite these fundamentally compelling arguments for why the short-priced fave can be beaten, she still rates clear of IM READY JET (5) and MUFASA METRO (4) with LOCKSLEY LOVER (2) the other class runner but seemingly struggling to produce his best at present and also first up this evening.

EARLY SPEED: 4 (Likely Leader) + 1 + 2,5?,6?

SELECTIONS: QUEEN ELIDA (6), IM READY JET (5), MUFASA METRO (4), LOCKSLEY LOVER (2)

RATINGS: 6/ 5/ 4/ 2/ 3/ 1

SUGGESTED BET: Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 4,5/ 2,4,5 ($40 gets 1000%)

Race 4:

OVERVIEW: In recent times six-furlong events like this have been successfully Quarantined on Wednesdays at this very circuit as part of HRV’s Fast Track series. And they will be again. For now, however, they’re back on our Premier meeting and, thankfully, two elements should ensure this extreme short-course contest offers both excitement and, more importantly, profit. The thrill factor emanates from the fact that all eight combatants harbour genuine gate speed, should they choose to use it. Perhaps more importantly, the four lower-rated runners drawn inside can all charge the arm and if that’s their edge, all four might be sent at the start. The profit factor exists courtesy of clear class edges, which often matter more over 1200m than many expect or acknowledge. Ultimately, the most progressive runner engaged is Andy Gath-trained former Kiwi TERRY (7). And all things being equal, he should prevail. The key decision Kate Gath must answer is whether she charges forward early in pursuit of positional/talent domination with the risk of being five or six-wide for a fair stretch, or alternatively opts to roll away in neutral fashion and let the inside speedsters sort themselves out before making her move. Either way TERRY (7) is the benchmark with two patent dangers. The first is MAJOR MAJOR (4) who has handled quality opposition winning one of these niche events before and arrives here having won the Super Series Silver contest for 4YO males at stupid, unreasonable odds. The other is STEEL SCREENS (8) who hasn’t placed in four goes over 1200m but would be the big beneficiary of any scenario where TERRY (7) worked too hard chasing an epic early pace. DIAMOND ECLIPSE (6) and DAYLIGHT AT DAWN (9) also have minor upset claims but in reality, one of the top three – probably one of the top two – should likely salute.

EARLY SPEED: 2,3,4?,5?6?,7,8?,9?

SELECTIONS: TERRY (7), MAJOR MAJOR (4), STEEL SCREENS (8), DIAMOND ECLIPSE (6)

RATINGS: 7/ 4/ 8/ 6/ 9/ 5/ 3/ 2

SUGGESTED BET: TERRY (7) To Win

Race 5:

OVERVIEW: In some sense at least, the evening’s theme continues in this programme’s feature female contest, the Tailamade Lombo – named in honour of an extraordinary and eminently lovable mare from days gone by. Head-to-head, if they raced in a straight line – which they don’t – there’s a very decent case to say TREACHERY (6) is now, at very least, the equal of TOUGH TILLY (5) for talent and speed. The problem for that former mare, however, just like in last month’s Graham Goffin Memorial, is that she draws outside TOUGH TILLY (5) who should very likely find the front and boasts the gold standard record of 11 wins from 13 starts when leading with her only conqueror under those circumstances being Ladies In Red. If life pans out as planned here, TOUGH TILLY (5) wins with TREACHERY (6) – who was massive in last Sunday’s Maryborough Cup – charging home for second with her only threat for silver medal honours being yet another Stewart-trained mare in STAR CELEBRITY (2) who is a great chance of crossing then trailing Tilly in transit. In this heavily predicted scenario RELENTLESS ME (1) is clear fourth pick but just keep your eye peeled early as TREACHERY (6) does have a slight gate speed edge over TOUGH TILLY (5) and there’s an outside hope they may choose to chance their arm early, knowing if they do there’s still some chance of dropping in should those two outstanding mares properly break up the field.

EARLY SPEED: 5 (Likely Leader) + 6? + 1,2?,3?,4?

SELECTIONS: TOUGH TILLY (5), TREACHERY (6), STAR CELEBRITY (2), RELENTLESS ME (1)

RATINGS: 5/ 6/ 2/ 1/ 3/ 4

SUGGESTED BET: Flexi Trifectas: 5/ 6/ 2 ($25 gets 2000%) & 5/ 6/ 1 ($5 gets 500%)

Race 6:

OVERVIEW: There’s slightly more going on here than Crown Casino on a busy Saturday night. First of all, there’s gate speed to burn in fact, every front row runner can ignite – to some degree at least – when asked. Then there’s a little pony by the name of KEAYANG IGNITE (7). Actually, let’s focus on him for just a moment. Between October and December 2019 – just before the Planet was informed of a global pandemic – KEAYANG IGNITE (7) claimed four victories from as many outing culminating in the Home Grown Classic for classic-age colts and geldings where he defeated future Great Southern Star heat winner Rules Don’t Apply. One could easily have forgiven that fellow for underperforming when first up for almost four years at this course recently. Yet he didn’t. Sure, he was driven for one run but horse trained by Marg or Paddy Lee are always ready for battle and, if he bounces off his eye-catching return run KEAYANG IGNITE (7) is in this up to his ears. With that thesis now public record however, he’s still second pick sandwiched between two 4YO trotters that lob here flush on the back of Vicbred Super Series campaigns. Heading that duo – and top tip tonight – is JUST A BIT TOUCHY (6). A Breeders Crown winner when trained by Emma Stewart at two, JUST A BIT TOUCHY (6) is now with Andy Gath and crying out to win. She trailed tonight’s other key combatant EBONYS AVENGER (1) at heat level of the VSS and blazed on by before making up as much ground as equinely possible in the corresponding final. If EBONYS AVENGER (1) is crossed early here, then JUST A BIT TOUCHY (6) is a great chance of finding the front and if she does she looks the winner. She may well be regardless of that fact. As mentioned, EBONYS AVENGER (1) also looms large despite the fact she seems to loathe polemarking draws while smaller hopes are also afforded to several runners including ALDEBARAN KEEPA (10), PARIS KAY (8) and JAKARTA (13). Don’t muck around through Quads here. Either play wide or stagger for life.

EARLY SPEED: 1,2?,3,4?5?,6,7?

SELECTIONS: JUST A BIT TOUCHY (6), KEAYANG IGNITE (7), EBONYS AVENGER (1), ALDEBARAN KEEPA (1)

RATINGS: 6/ 7/ 1/ 10/ 8/ 13/ 11/ 5/ 2/ 12/ 4/ 3

SUGGESTED BET: JUST A BIT TOUCHY (6) To Win

Race 7:

OVERVIEW: Given their respectively horrific alleys, there’s an extraordinary temptation to risk class runners BETTER ECLIPSE (8) and ACT NOW (11) in this programme’s fast class pace. Sadly, or perhaps thankfully, the more one excavates however, the more obvious it becomes that one of the two big guns is very likely to take the chocolates. They do have one very serious threat but we’ll get to him soon. When separating the merits of one-time Chariots of Fire King and Miracle Mile placegetter BETTER ECLIPSE (8) – who claimed the Group 2 Caduceus Classic last start – and two-time Group 1 winner ACT NOW (11) who has also placed in an ID Grand Final, one factor slightly stands out. Versatility. Seventeen of ACT NOW’S (11) 19 wins have come when leading and he’s never saluted from further back than 1 x 1 in transit. BETTER ECLIPSE (8) has won from everywhere. For that reason, and virtually that reason alone, we’re siding with the Larajay Farm star over ACT NOW (11) though that third key hope, referenced earlier, is TANGO TARA (9). Here’s why. All things being equal OUTLAW MAN (2), a stablemate of TANGO TARA (9) should lead early with Tango following him through and, potentially assuming control as a direct result. If this doesn’t happen, he’s a moderate hope only while HELLUVA (4), ARGGGHHH (2) and OUTLAW MAN (2)  - who has won seven of the eight times he’s led on Aussie soil - all possess small winning claims based on talent, likely positional advantages, or both.

EARLY SPEED: 2 (Potential Leader) + 1 + 3?,4?

SELECTIONS: BETTER ECLIPSE (8), ACT NOW (11), TANGO TARA (9), HELLUVA (4)

RATINGS: 8/ 11/ 9/ 4/ 1/ 2/ 5/ 7/ 10/ 6/ 3

SUGGESTED BET: BETTER ECLIPSE (8)

Race 8:

OVERVIEW: Much like the previous contest, this pseudo Rising Stars showdown creates the kind of internal conflict which eventually made Sigmund Freud a very rich individual. This isn’t about childhood trauma, its simply questioning which race element matters more, outright class or barrier edge? And, as has been our wont throughout the programme, we’re naturally siding with class. Unsurprisingly, that means our focus largely lies with future open class guns CAPTAIN BELLASARIO (8) and DISTRICT ATTORNEY (9). In many ways, those two excitement machines are very similar kids. Both have some gate speed when drawn the front row and aren’t averse to leading and winning when required though both thrive most when utilising their breathtaking, brilliant, sustained late pace. The difference between them tonight is probably their draws. DISTRICT ATTORNEY (9) follows out the front line’s fastest starter, LA CAPTAIN (2) while CAPTAIN BELLASARIO (8) will end up three – or perhaps even four – back the pylons if he holds his inside role (more likely over 1720m than 2240m) and could be spotting his major rivals a decent start should he activate the right hand blinker early in proceedings. For that reason, and that reason alone, DISTRICT ATTORNEY (9) – who was actually very solid fresh despite finishing seventh – narrowly gets the nod from CAPTAIN BELLASARIO (8) – though its not a two horse race as VANQUISH STRIDE (10), WHISKEY CAVALIER (5), LA CAPTAIN (3) who looks the leader and has saluted six of the eight times he’s lead at race level, can all prevail with perfect personal fortune.

EARLY SPEED: 3 (Potential Leader) + 1,4?,7? + 5

SELECTIONS: DISTRICT ATTORNEY (9), CAPTAIN BELLASARIO (8), VANQUISH STRIDE (10), WHISKEY CAVALIER (5)

RATINGS: 9/ 8/ 10/ 5/ 3/ 1/ 11/ 4/ 7/ 9

SUGGESTED BET: Flexi Exacta: 8,9/ 3,5,8,9,10 ($40 gets 500%)

Race 9:

OVERVIEW: Most folks don’t love prohibitively short-priced favourites. Nevertheless, when they’re as gilt edged as SMOKEN ACE (7) and it’s the programme’s final race, surely we can make an exception. Young ex-Kiwi trainer/driver is throwing punches with Roberto Duran-like intensity in his efforts to stamp an imprimatur on Vic Harness Racing right now, but every budding mentor needs at least one good horse to set them on path. And Marshall has one here. SMOKEN ACE (7) hasn’t yet broken any real records in terms of overall times but he does possess the two most important weapons any horse can have. Gate speed and late speed. Look for him to blaze across in the get-out stakes tonight and dictate terms from there. On face value, there are no dangers; if you’re looking for some however, then CITY ROCKSTAR (1) who seems a great chance of keeping the trail, and his recent conqueror SKY CITY (6) clearly fit that bill. They are also your obvious silver medal options in all exotic wagers with the next tier for Tricks and F4’s filled by TRIPLE VINNIES (3), REMI LOU (8) and GOODTIME OSCAR (5).

EARLY SPEED: 7 (Likely Leader) + 1,6 + 2?,4?

SELECTIONS: SMOKEN ACE (7), CITY ROCKSTAR (1), SKY CITY (6), TRIPLE VINNIES (3)

RATINGS: 7/ 1/ 6/ 3/ 8/ 5/ 2/ 4

SUGGESTED BET: Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 1,6/ 1,3,5,6,8 ($40 gets 500%)

BEST BET: (Race 4 No 7 Terry)

BEST VALUE: (Race 8 No 9 District Attorney)

BEST ROUGHIE: (Race 7 No 1 Arggghhh)

$50.00 Flexi Early Quaddie Races 1 – 4 for 138.89%

2,6,9,10/ 4,5,6/ 6/ 4,7,8

$50.00 Flexi Quaddie Races 5 – 8 for 138.89%

5,6/ 1,6,7/ 8,9,11/ 8,9

$50.00 Flexi BIG6 Races 3 – 8 for 46.3%

6/ 4,7,8/ 5,6/ 1,6,7/ 8,9,11/ 8,9