The Goodform Gameplan: Bendigo Saturday 19th September

Peg-domination may be the cornerstone of starting our night with a bang here. My map has MAJOR DELICO (1) until stablemate BETTOR BE SORRY (5) comes knocking and with WESTERN SONADOR (8) three poles it’s predicted that the first three along the pegs should comprise the Trick with the leader winning and WESTERN SONADOR (8) the likely silver medallist. A few different combos will be required to cover bases but the big win will come if we have the map done right. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 8/ 1: $20 gets 2000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 8/ 4,11: $20 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 8/ 2,3,9,10,13: $15 gets 300% 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 1,4,11/ 8: $5 gets 166.67% 

The start will be crucial here as AMELIA ROSE (2) will likely get crossed early but if Jodi Quinlan gets her off the pegs she can rush around and take the lead which would give her a massive tactical advantage over her only serious rival here; GOODTIME HEAVEN (8). I’m relying on them to run one-two but looking for a split of sorts after than by playing wide for third and fourth. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi First Four: 2/ 8/ 3,4,5,6,7/ Field. $50 gets 200% 

Flexi First Four: 8/ 2/ 3,4,5,6,7/ Field. $20 gets 80% 

If the day stays warm then Bendigo will play a massive role here. Generally speaking it’s one of the fastest tracks in Victoria and under ideal conditions it will race crazy fast which means the leaders can carve out time and keep going. For that reason I’m backing the two horses capable of leading, they being REACTOR NOW (3) and HURRICANE HARLEY (5). Many will think my words this week suggest I believe LOCHINVAR ART (13) can’t win which simply isn’t true. I know he can win but cannot possibly have him at red figures with all the factors playing against him. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win on Reactor Now at $4 or better. 

$20 Win on Hurricane Harley at $4 or better. 

Part of me wants to pledge my undying support for the great TORNADO VALLEY (5) here but it’s such a tricky race that I’m staying out. I hope TORNADO VALLEY (5) can re-prove himself even though he doesn’t have to but I can’t guarantee he’ll bounce back from a below par first-up run. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant. (Confidence rating that Tornado Valley will win)

This is a funny old race to assess because there are two versions of the possible map which would yield vastly different results. The way the market has moved I’d be tempted to back THE CRIMSON PRINCE (8) straight out and PIRATE BAY (3) each way as he has gotten out to a crazy price if he can lead but I’ve settled on a slightly risky but potentially lucrative Trifecta. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 1,3,8/ 1,3,6,8,10/ 1,3,4,6,8,10: $50 gets 104.17% 

I have been very vocal that LOUIS SEDGWICK (8) is my Best Bet of the night and here’s why; I am confident enough that A FAIR OL DANCE (1) will hold up to lead from the polemarking draw and if LOUIS SEDGWICK (8) gets the trailing run I don’t see how he won’t prevail. There was also some overs available about ROCKNROLL EYES (9) earlier in the week but those odds are gone now. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$50 Win LOUIS SEDGWICK (8) at $2.50 or better. 

This is another fun race but I don’t know whether it’s great for punting. KEAYANG LIVANA (1) is certainly the horse to beat but the draw may end up being more curse than blessing so $2 is unders for her IMO. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant (Confidence level that Keayang Livana will win.)

If you got the $12 available about MAJESTIC CRUISER (10) you definitely got overs but the scratching of Elroy Jetson has made life that much easier on URBADBOY (2) because if he leads the only danger is STEEL SCREENS (8) right on behind him. Overall the race has become far too confusing so we’re staying out and playing via our Quad only. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant. (Confidence rating that Urbadboy will win) 

I feel the way the map will play out should make life tough on LOCHINVAR CHIEF (7) even though I have a big opinion of him. I also like IDYLLIC (1) to win so we’re going to play a few tricks weighted more heavily to that brother of Petacular getting the job done for value. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 4/ 5,7: $40 gets 2000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 5,7/ 4: $10 gets 500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 1/ 5,7: $30 gets 1500% 

There are three big guns involved here and I’m leaning toward CHEVRON ACTION (4) as I see her being the leader. The other major players are POWDERKEG (6) and TAILORED ELEGANCE (8). Things get trickier beyond that top trio so I’m taking confusion out of the equation and playing Exactas in preference to Trifectas. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Flexi Exacta: 4/ 6,8: $30 gets 1500% 

Flexi Exacta: 6,8/ 4,6,8: $30 gets 750%