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Race 1

Confidence:
 

 

The whole world will rest on the Early Map here and races where that’s the case are goldmines when you’re right and catastrophic when you’re wrong. That being said IMSETTOTGO (4) should have the speed to cross these and if you knew that before the start she’d be closer to $1.90 than her current price of $3.10. For that reason I see her as a more-than-reasonable betting proposition at anything close to $2.80 so bet early before a possible deluge of cash arrives. The race overall is too tricky to attack form an exotic perspective so I suggest having a straight out crack and if the Atlas betrays us there are six races left to play with.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$20 Win on Imsettogo (4) at $2.80 or better

Race 2

Confidence:
 

 

I have no really firm opinion on the map here but all evidence would suggest that URBADBOY (2) has something on his rivals here right now but we need to be a little price sensitive as he’s still a work in progress and faces a couple of very tidy rivals. On that score I think $1.60 is good enough so be prepared to stake quite heavily to your bank if that price is available (it is) while also getting involved in some tricky little exotics. I know we are loading him with plenty of importance by playing him two ways but I think this could be the race to set up our night.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$50 Win on URBADBOY (2) at $1.60 or better

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1/ 6: $30 gets 3000%

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1/ 3,4,5: $15 gets 500%

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 6/ 1: $5 gets 500%

Race 3

Confidence:
 

 

I love this race as an exotic betting proposition because I’m exceedingly confident of the Map and that it’s not a Map that everyone will necessarily agree with. The way I see things panning out IM NO OUTLAW (5) will scream to the front and be followed across by ROCKNROLL RONNIE (6) who should quickly take up the running. Should I be right then ROCKNROLL RONNIE (6) is an over-the-line job and the minors should be fought out between YANKEE LINCOLN (5) and IM NO OUTLAW (6) in the trail. We’ll stagger a sever Trick in case one of those latter runners underperforms but I suspect if we nail the aggressive exotics there’ll be something decent in it for us.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,6/ 1,6: $40 gets 2000%

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,6/ 2,3: $20 gets 500%

Race 4

Confidence:
 

 

The open class affair is confusing on a range of levels as we can’t be brutally confident of the map and precious little separates the entire field on ability so we will play but only on a speculative basis. Most scenarios should see MAJOR TIMES (7) leading and if he does he’s likely to get a trouble free run in front so I’ll side with him at $2.50 or better and that’s available now. We’re definitely going to give exotics a wide berth but with the market sitting where it currently does it would be criminal not to have a spec wager on EGODAN (6) as well with a much greater weighting on the place than on the win.

SUGGESTED BET:

$20 Win on Major Times (7) at $2.50 or better

$5 Win & $15 Place on Egodan (6) at $21 or better

Race 5

Confidence:
 

 

This race really isn’t for me. On face value COCOSFELLA (2) should lead and win but I am not the least bit interested in taking any better than even money and if that becomes available he’ll have drifted so far you’d be concerned about why. If you’re desperate for an interest wager then you should either think about where you’re punting is at or have something small the drum on BETTOR BE THE BOMB (6) considering he has class on most of these and is actually going quite well this prep.

SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant (Confidence level that Cocosfella will Win)

Race 6

Confidence:
 

 

It’s funny because when OFF THE RADAR (6) was $13 earlier in the week I was spinning on the ground with excitement like one of the Three Stooges or Homer Simpson when he won the Dental Plan for his Nuclear Power Plant colleagues and was simultaneously relieved of his duties as Union Leader by Mr Burns. Even though I’ve marked him $3 as he clearly has the best current form in the field I have cooled on backing him at a much reduced price however as my Mapping addiction tells me that is things don’t pan out for him he may be properly cast. We’re still going to play him here but only on a speculative straight out basis because with two place divvied it just ain’t worth an EW investment. Prayers go to those that followed be on Twitter and nailed Top Fluc.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$20 Win on Off The Radar (6) at $4 or better

Race 7

Confidence:
 

 

Once again the Map is integral in this final event but I have great confidence that we know the Map and that’s why I’m very keen to play with intent. He can be a little scratchy at the start sometimes but SCALLYWAG SAM (2) should work over to the pegs and once he gets there the only intention will be to take cover on stablemate MCLOVIN (6) (I think). If that Map plays out then MCLOVIN (6) wins so long as he backs up from last week and SCALLYWAG SAM (2) almost certainly finishes second. I’m even going to be arrogant enough to say that SUPER ZECK (4) is very unlikely to run top four and if I’m right we can be really aggressive with a potentially lucrative First Four and a pathetic saver if he does.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi  First Four: 6/ 2/ 3,5/ 1: $50 gets 2500%

Flexi First Four: 6/ 2/ 3,5/ 4: $10 gets 500%

 

Early Quaddie

 

I’m not wildly excited about the Early Quad tonight as I want to cover my bases more broadly but know for certain that if I do there’s precious little chance of making a profit with the way I personally play. We’re still going to have a lash but knowing that loads will need to go right for us to come away with a decent collect.

4/ 2/ 6/ 3,7,8: $32 gets 1066.67%

4/ 2/ 6/ 1,2: $5 gets 250%

4/ 1,6/ 6/ 3,7,8: $18 gets 300%

4/ 1,6/ 6/ 1,2: $3 gets 75%

3,6/ 1,6/ 6/ 3,7,8: $36 gets 300%

3,6/ 1,6/ 6/ 1,2: $6 gets 75%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Quaddie

 

I tossed and turned about playing more heavily through Off the Radar than his more fancied rivals in the third leg of this Quad given we are backing him straight out as well but ultimately decided to go for gold. Again I suspect we’ll need a lot to go right for this Quad to yield big dividends but for the first time in a while I’m more keen to play each race in isolation than attack the Quads and the way I’ve divided these up I am pretty sure we’ll at least get the Quad which is a good start.

3,7,8/ 2/ 6/ 6: $30 gets 1000%

3,7,8/ 2/ 2,5/ 6: $40 gets 666.67%

1,2/ 2/ 6/ 6: $5 gets 250%

1,2/ 2/ 2,5/ 6: $6 gets 150%

3,7,8/ 8/ 6/ 6: $8 gets 266.67%

3,7,8/ 8/ 2,5/ 6: $11 gets 183.33%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Summary

 

Win, place, each way

Race 1: $20 Win on Imsettogo (4) at $2.80 or better
Race 2: $50 Win on URBADBOY (2) at $1.60 or better
Race 4: $20 Win on Major Times (7) at $2.50 or better
Race 4: $5 Win & $15 Place on Egodan (6) at $21 or better
Race 6: $20 Win on Off The Radar (6) at $4 or better

Exotics

Race 2:
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1/ 6: $30 gets 3000%
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1/ 3,4,5: $15 gets 500%
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 6/ 1: $5 gets 500%
Race 3:
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,6/ 1,6: $40 gets 2000%
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,6/ 2,3: $20 gets 500%
Race 7:
Flexi First Four: 6/ 2/ 3,5/ 1: $50 gets 2500%
Flexi First Four: 6/ 2/ 3,5/ 4: $10 gets 500%

Early Quaddie

4/ 2/ 6/ 3,7,8: $32 gets 1066.67%
4/ 2/ 6/ 1,2: $5 gets 250%
4/ 1,6/ 6/ 3,7,8: $18 gets 300%
4/ 1,6/ 6/ 1,2: $3 gets 75%
3,6/ 1,6/ 6/ 3,7,8: $36 gets 300%
3,6/ 1,6/ 6/ 1,2: $6 gets 75%

Quaddie

3,7,8/ 2/ 6/ 6: $30 gets 1000%
3,7,8/ 2/ 2,5/ 6: $40 gets 666.67%
1,2/ 2/ 6/ 6: $5 gets 250%
1,2/ 2/ 2,5/ 6: $6 gets 150%
3,7,8/ 8/ 6/ 6: $8 gets 266.67%
3,7,8/ 8/ 2,5/ 6: $11 gets 183.33%