Race 1
Confidence:
The market pretty much reflects the way I saw this race (aside from PIRATESOF ZANZIBAR (11) who looks very short). It is hard to ignore the way that ARGY BARGY (10) won last time but with some converging form lines we’d be looking for better than bookmakers are likely to offer.
SUGGESTED BET: $20 Win on Argy Bargy (10) at $3.20 or better
Race 2
Confidence:
There was a couple of surprises in the early market here, one of those was exposed pretty quickly (FLAMIN ALICE (6) $7 into $4.80) but I still marked her quite a bit shorter than that and the top pick. I also thought CLEVER COWBOY (2) wasn’t hopeless at $13 if you were chasing a roughie.
SUGGESTED BET: $15 Win on Flamin Alice (6) at $4 or better & $10 Place on Clever Cowboy (2) at $3 or better
Race 3
Confidence:
VIVA LA ROCK (5) perhaps won’t get enough credit for the win last time but 2’s on or shorter and no clear standout in terms of trifecta options means we best give this race a bit of a pass.
SUGGESTED BET: Nothing Significant
Race 4
Confidence:
There was a little hope that REGAL ASSASSIN (5) might go up a backable price here but he’s been rated right up to his trial at $2.40. He’s a clear top pick and even though ANTIOPE (10) looks a touch of overs at $8, it’s not a race where I’d necessarily want to be opposing the favourite.
SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant
Race 5
Confidence:
The market here is almost identical to how I saw it, ALITTLEBITOFTAP (5) is the only little overs early doors so we’ll monitor him as the possible bet in the race if he continues to get forgotten through betting.
SUGGESTED BET: $10 Each Way on Alittlebitofftap (5) at $12 or better
Race 6
Confidence:
I personally had the two favourites the other way around in market order but ALL THE MUSCLES (7) has landed a similar price to what I marked him. Given STORM CLOUD (6) is the most likely leader, it is understandable why the market is the that it is. ROYAL CHARLOTTE (8) looks big overs early but will need plenty of luck to actually win the race. That said, she’s a ripping place bet.
SUGGESTED BET: $25 Place on Royal Charlotte (8) at $3 or better
Race 7
Confidence:
I could barely contain my excitement here when I saw this market. I was hoping POSTAL EXPRESS (5) would come up an each-way price but $41/$5.5 is bordering on outrageous. If he zips over to lead early he’ll have options and he’s just a magnificent punting option even if punters start to tee off on him in the next 24 hours. Respecting EXCITER (6) and ADELAIDE BAY (11) through Quaddies but I think they are both too short.
SUGGESTED BET: $25 Win, $75 Place on Postal Express (5) at $10 or better
Race 8
Confidence:
Another quality betting race where I thought only SHADOW CHEVRON (9) but more likely YOUNG ROOSTER (11) can win. It’s a little bit choose your own adventure in terms of how to extract the most from the race but trifectas look the right option to my eye.
SUGGESTED BET:
Flexi Trifecta 11/9/3,10 for $20 gets 1000%
Flexi Trifecta 11/9/2,6,8 for $12 gets 400%
Flexi Trifecta 9/11/3,10 for $14 gets 700%
Flexi Trifecta 9/11/2,6,8 for $6 gets 200%
Flexi Trifecta 9,11/3,10/9,11 for $3 gets 75%
Early Quaddie
It looks a pretty tricky Early Quaddie tonight so despite the fact we will be betting in one or two of the races, this is not something I’m keen to launch into necessarily. I’d suggest playing for value early then locking into the favourites late.
CONFIDENCE:
Quaddie
I’m pretty excited by tonight’s Quaddie. The first leg is a little tricky but we’ll account for plenty of happenings there and from that point onwards I really do think we should be making a profit with just even luck through the last three legs.
7/ 7/ 5,6,11/ 9,11 for $24 gets 400%
7/ 7/ 8,9,10/ 9,11 for $12 gets 200%
7/ 6/ 5,6,11/ 9,11 for $12 gets 200%
10,11/ 7/ 5,6,11/ 9,11 for $12 gets 100%
2,5,6,8,9/ 7/ 5,6,11/ 9,11 for $6 gets 20%
CONFIDENCE:
Summary
Win, place, each way
Race 1: $20 Win on Argy Bargy (10) at $3.20 or better
Race 2: $15 Win on Flamin Alice (6) at $4 or better & $10 Place on Clever Cowboy (2) at $3 or better
Race 5: $10 Each Way on Alittlebitofftap (5) at $12 or better
Race 6: $25 Place on Royal Charlotte (8) at $3 or better
Race 7: $25 Win, $75 Place on Postal Express (5) at $10 or better
Exotics
Race 8:
Flexi Trifecta 11/9/3,10 for $20 gets 1000%
Flexi Trifecta 11/9/2,6,8 for $12 gets 400%
Flexi Trifecta 9/11/3,10 for $14 gets 700%
Flexi Trifecta 9/11/2,6,8 for $6 gets 200%
Flexi Trifecta 9,11/3,10/9,11 for $3 gets 75%
Early Quaddie
-
Quaddie
7/ 7/ 5,6,11/ 9,11 for $24 gets 400%
7/ 7/ 8,9,10/ 9,11 for $12 gets 200%
7/ 6/ 5,6,11/ 9,11 for $12 gets 200%
10,11/ 7/ 5,6,11/ 9,11 for $12 gets 100%
2,5,6,8,9/ 7/ 5,6,11/ 9,11 for $6 gets 20%