powererd by  
 

Race 1

Confidence:
 

 

This is a nightmare race to kick off the card where IAMTHEFIRECRACKER (11) has the most talent but can’t be labelled a betting proposition at $2.70. In fact in a race where I expected the ‘real’ market might differ significantly from my own there’s precious little contrast so I would advise using this race for Early Quads and very little else.

SUGGESTED BETS: Nothing significant (Confidence rating that Iamthefirecracker will win)

Race 2

Confidence:
 

 

Welcome to Groundhog Day. Race two is race one wearing slightly different clothes. Much like the opening event I had vague hopes that some sort of market miscalculation might leave the door ajar for some small wagering opportunity but that hasn’t materialised. I still think CMONBABYLITEMYFIRE (3) will probably win but I marked her $4 and she’s $3.70 so you can leave me right out.

SUGGESTED BETS: Nothing significant (Confidence rating that Cmonbabylitemyfire will win)

Race 3

Confidence:
 

 

Finally we have a race where we can get a little aggressive. All things being equal class runner FEAR THE YANKEE (3) should just pounce on the lead and she does ANTIOPE (2) gets the gun run behind that mare and PRETTYLILANGUS (5) is the other big gun runner. You could play wider if you so desired but I see WANDA (10) and STARLIGHT RED (11) as the only runners really requiring inclusion for sharp, targeted exotics.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 2,5/ 2,5,10,11: $48 gets 800%

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 10,11/ 2,5,10,11: $12 gets 200%

Race 4

Confidence:
 

 

I was actually hoping to have a little crack at impressive last start winner CONSTANTINA (1) here as I felt that once she resisted a little early challenge she’d probably get things all her own away and blast clear in the closing stages just as she did last start. Unfortunately she’s come up very short. I’m still willing to get involved at a low level because the debutante is unlikely to strike a blow and the placings should be filled by CHIQUITTA (6) and SHES A HOVERCRAFT (7).

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi First Four: 1/ 6,7/ 6,7/ 2,5,6,7: $36 gets 600%

Flexi First Four: 1/ 6,7/ 2/ 6,7: $4 gets 200%

Race 5

Confidence:
 

 

This is no easy assignment but I do see the capacity for some hot early speed which should generate a genuine tempo and if that’s the case I do thing AZZA (9) can win but knowing the challenges confronting him I want $5 to get properly involved and I would do so on an Each Way basis. As an overall contest it’s far to wily for any sort of aggressive exotic investment so sticking with the one runner to follow looks the right move.

SUGGESTED BET:

$20 Each Way on Azza at $5 or better

Race 6

Confidence:
 

 

The critical key to this race as that we need BRANDLO PRINCE (4) to post ALL THE MUSCLES (6) but I think there’s a great chance he will and if he does clearly me Best Value wager on the card is DOWNUNDER BARKERS (5). Because I do have concerns about the map I don’t want to back that bloke at the price I marked him ($4) but I made my mind up early in the week that I’d happily take $7 and that is available right now. He may even drift from that quote so you’ll need to be smart about when to make your move if you want top fluc but the way I wager I’ll take the $7 because I won’t be Betfairing and it’s enough for me to feel at peace I got the number I wanted.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$30 Each Way on Downunder Barkers (5) at $7 or better

Race 7

Confidence:
 

 

There aren’t too many hot exotic races on this card but we seem to have one here. There is a chance that one of the quick beginners will take on and cross INTEREST ME (3) but I’m banking on that not happening and if INTEREST ME (3) drops on the top then peg domination should almost certainly ensue. You could be pretty generic about how to attack the race with that philosophy in mind but my plan is to get somewhat creative.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 8/ 1: $16 gets 1600%

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1/ 8: $6 gets 600%

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,8/ 4,10,11: $18 gets 300%

Race 8

Confidence:
 

 

For the vast majority of my life I have committed to never betting on Collingwood as I am already too emotionally invested and it makes life too difficult and in many ways I feel the same way about my favourite horse SAN CARLO (6). I really do think ‘Muzz’ will win but he’s first up and this isn’t a target race of any kind so I don’t want to launch in here. In fact I’m staying out completely but if you want to play then it does seem likely that SAN CARLO (6) and SIRLETIC (1) will fight out the finish and SAN CARLO (6) will win.

SUGGESTED BETS: Nothing significant (Confidence rating that San Carlo will win)

 

Early Quaddie

 

The first two races of tonight’s card are merciless and brutal so I don’t want to get very heavily involved in the Early Quad because we’re forced to either play aggressively knowing that’s a high risk move with potentially meagre reward or play crazy wide and risk making no profit if one of the two early faves salutes. That being said it’s healthy to have a little interest investment so I will.

6,7,9,11/ 3,7,8,10/ 3/ 3/ 1: $32 gets 200%

6,7,9,11/ 3,7,8,10/ 3/ 6,7: $32 gets 100%

2,6,8/ 3,7,8,10/ 3/ 1: $6 gets 50%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Quaddie

 

For those who’ve been following Goodform for many years; welcome back to the OctoQuad, for those new to this forum, I apologise in advance. I’m actually semi-keen to get involved here  but I’m moderating my investment because we are one-out through Interest Me in every combination and while I think it win (obviously) I’m not so confident that I want to put what would equate to a massive straight out win bet on him here.

4,9/ 4,5,6/ 3/ 7: $20 gets 366.67%

6,8/ 4,5,6/ 3/ 7: $6 gets 100%

4,9/ 4,5,6/ 3/ 1: $12 gets 200%

6,8/ 4,5,6/ 3/ 1: $4 gets 66.67%

4,9/ 7,8,10,11/ 3/ 7: $8 gets 100%

6,8/ 7,8,10,11/ 3/ 7: $2 gets 25%

4,9/ 7,8,10,11/ 3/ 1: $6 gets 66.67%

6,8/ 7,8,10,11/ 3/ 1: $2 gets 25%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Summary

 

Win, place, each way

Race 5: $20 Each Way on Azza at $5 or better
Race 6: $30 Each Way on Downunder Barkers (5) at $7 or better

Exotics

Race 3:
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 2,5/ 2,5,10,11: $48 gets 800%
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 10,11/ 2,5,10,11: $12 gets 200%
Race 4:
Flexi First Four: 1/ 6,7/ 6,7/ 2,5,6,7: $36 gets 600%
Flexi First Four: 1/ 6,7/ 2/ 6,7: $4 gets 200%
Race 7:
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 8/ 1: $16 gets 1600%
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1/ 8: $6 gets 600%
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,8/ 4,10,11: $18 gets 300%

Early Quaddie

6,7,9,11/ 3,7,8,10/ 3/ 3/ 1: $32 gets 200%
6,7,9,11/ 3,7,8,10/ 3/ 6,7: $32 gets 100%
2,6,8/ 3,7,8,10/ 3/ 1: $6 gets 50%

Quaddie

4,9/ 4,5,6/ 3/ 7: $20 gets 366.67%
6,8/ 4,5,6/ 3/ 7: $6 gets 100%
4,9/ 4,5,6/ 3/ 1: $12 gets 200%
6,8/ 4,5,6/ 3/ 1: $4 gets 66.67%
4,9/ 7,8,10,11/ 3/ 7: $8 gets 100%
6,8/ 7,8,10,11/ 3/ 7: $2 gets 25%
4,9/ 7,8,10,11/ 3/ 1: $6 gets 66.67%
6,8/ 7,8,10,11/ 3/ 1: $2 gets 25%