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Race 1

Confidence:
 

 

I’m pretty sure I know who the winner is here and his name is WESTERN SONADOR (6) but when you’ve marked a horse $1.60 and he’s $1.55 – particularly when you don’t think he’ll lead – the incentive to back that horse straight out is very limited. That being said I still want to play so the plan is to construct a couple of little Trifectas hoping/expecting that the speed is very hot early and that the cream rises to the top.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 10,11/ 2,3,5,7,10,11: $25 gets 500%

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 7/ 10,11: $5 gets 250%

Race 2

Confidence:
 

 

The moment I plotted a Speed Map for this event I was mad keen on CASTLE RETREAT (1). Plainly put, every runner drawn wider than three here will almost certainly restrain at the start and with no natural pressure horse engaged there will be a little early battle and then they should jog most of the trip before ripping up a quarter. If CASTLE RETREAT (1) can fend off EXPLICIT CASTLE (2) early then trail THE BROOKLYN BRAWLER (3) I just think he’ll win. And even if he’s forced to trail EXPLICIT CASTLE (2) he’s still in this up to his ears. The only other value bet in the races is BOPPER JET (7) so we’ll have a saver on him but attack CASTLE RETREAT (1).

SUGGESTED BET:

$40 Win on Castle Retreat (1) at $2.50 or better.

$10 Win on Bopper Jet (7) at $5.50 or better.

Race 3

Confidence:
 

 

With TAILORED ELEGANCE (7) an almost certain winner here but paying just $1.28 we’re stuck with a race where we should get our bet right but probs won’t make much money for doing so. Because I’m keen to play POWDERKEG (3) one-out for second I think there’s more value in playing very wide a First Four rather than a Trifecta because if VENKMAN (2) finishes fourth we’ll still get a benefit where we wouldn’t by playing a Trick only.

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi First Four: 7/ 3/ Field/ Field: $30 gets 250%

Race 4

Confidence:
 

 

From a viewer’s perspective this fat class trot will be a great spectacle but it’s tough to assess how we play it from a punting angle. I did Tweet earlier in the week that RED HOT TOOTH (5) looked reasonable overs at $5.50 but that price is all gone now so if you did get the good price then at least you have options to lay off in whichever way you see fit.

SUGGESTED BET:

Nothing significant.

Race 5

Confidence:
 

 

I’m not as sold on the likely Map here as many others so while I can understand some will want to play this race very aggressively I’m not one of them. I will promote two exotic wagers however and they will be driven by the belief that REACTOR NOW (1) can muster the speed to lead and that the bet four horses engaged have an edge on the rest.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 8,9/ 8,9,10: $40 gets 1000%

Flexi First Four: 1/ 8,9/ 8,9,10/ 8,9,10: $20 gets 500%

Race 6

Confidence:
 

 

I was originally mad keen on backing JAMIESON STEELE (5) when analysing this event and still believe he will likely win but I was perhaps over-optimistic in my hopes regarding price and that has not materialised. In fact most of the current quotes are very similar to mine and the only way I can see a way of getting involved is via BE MAJOR THREAT (9) on a 1 x 5 basis.

SUGGESTED BET:

$5 Win & $25 Place on Be Major Threat (9) at $21 or better.

Race 7

Confidence:
 

 

Funny race this one but I’ve had a one-track mind since doing the form that I only wanted to back IZMOK (10) so long as he was an Each Way price and we’ve gotten that so I’m happy to get pretty well involved here given he’s dropping significantly in grade from his last two runs and has actually been very good at all three starts this campaign.

SUGGESTED BET:

$25 Each Way on Izmok (10)

Race 8

Confidence:
 

 

I reckon I may have found two bets here. Having found GOODTIME HEAVEN (7) at a nice price first-up I’m reluctant for some silly reason about going back to the well but the fact is she simply owned almost identical rivals there and should do so again here. As a result I’m happy to back her at yours-for-theirs tonight despite the fact she’ll likely endure the toughest run in the race and I’m also happy to have something small the place on ONTHECRESTOFAWAVE (4) given she’s a massive price to run top-two and should get the best run of all if she crosses and trails as expected.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$30 Win on Goodtime Heaven (7) at $2 or better.

$10 Place on Onthecrestofawave (4) at $4 the drum.

Race 9

Confidence:
 

 

Based on what we know of every runner here there seems no reason that LOCHINVAR CHIEF (6) shouldn’t be favourite and I am very confident he will lead and win. On top of that there are only two other runners with serious claims to fill the placings so unlike recent weeks we’re having a proper dip in the last.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$50 Win on Lochinvar Chief (6) at $1.80 or better.

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 1/ 2: $30 gets 3000%

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2/ 1: $20 gets 2000%

 

Early Quaddie

 

The only way we’ll strike a blow worth striking with this Early Quad is by playing aggressively so that is what we’ll do. The first and third legs look all but decided and we’ll only manipulate the two remaining pins.

6/ 1/ 7/ 7: $20 gets 2000%

6/ 2,3,7/ 7/ 7: $30 gets 1000%

6/ 1/ 7/ 5,6: $20 gets 1000%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Quaddie

 

I can’t say I love this Quad but the more you assess it the more it sucks you in. I’m pretty solid on the concept that Reactor Now should win the first leg so almost every combo kicks off with him but there is one exit strategy via Hurricane Harley as well.

1/ 1,3,5,6/ 1,9,10,11/ 7: $32 gets 200%

1/ 9,11/ 1,9,10,11/ 7: $8 gets 100%

1/ 1,3,5,6/ 1,9,10,11/ 5,6: $32 gets 100%

1/ 9,11/ 1,9,10,11/ 5,6: $8 gets 50%

9/ 1,3,5,6,9,11/ 1,9,10,11/ 5,6,7: $30 gets 41.67%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Summary

 

Win, place, each way

Race 2:
$40 Win on Castle Retreat (1) at $2.50 or better.
$10 Win on Bopper Jet (7) at $5.50 or better.
Race 6:
$5 Win & $25 Place on Be Major Threat (9) at $21 or better.
Race 7:
$25 Each Way on Izmok (10)
Race 8:
$30 Win on Goodtime Heaven (7) at $2 or better.
$10 Place on Onthecrestofawave (4) at $4 the drum.
Race 9:
$50 Win on Lochinvar Chief (6) at $1.80 or better.

Exotics

Race 1:
Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 10,11/ 2,3,5,7,10,11: $25 gets 500%
Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 7/ 10,11: $5 gets 250%
Race 3:
Flexi First Four: 7/ 3/ Field/ Field: $30 gets 250%
Race 5:
Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 8,9/ 8,9,10: $40 gets 1000%
Flexi First Four: 1/ 8,9/ 8,9,10/ 8,9,10: $20 gets 500%
Race 9:
Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 1/ 2: $30 gets 3000%
Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2/ 1: $20 gets 2000%

Early Quaddie

6/ 1/ 7/ 7: $20 gets 2000%
6/ 2,3,7/ 7/ 7: $30 gets 1000%
6/ 1/ 7/ 5,6: $20 gets 1000%

Quaddie

1/ 1,3,5,6/ 1,9,10,11/ 7: $32 gets 200%
1/ 9,11/ 1,9,10,11/ 7: $8 gets 100%
1/ 1,3,5,6/ 1,9,10,11/ 5,6: $32 gets 100%
1/ 9,11/ 1,9,10,11/ 5,6: $8 gets 50%
9/ 1,3,5,6,9,11/ 1,9,10,11/ 5,6,7: $30 gets 41.67%