The Goodform Gameplan: Terang Saturday 12th September

Most of tonight’s races are very predictable. This one is a little more wily; but the good news is that it’s unpredictable nature could lead to a profitable betting opportunity. For reasons I cannot fathom THE DUDE (6) is $6 in this race and I have marked it $2.20 on the expectation that he’ll lead. He’s won four from six when leading in Australia so if you agree on the map you must have a bet. The ‘saver’ option is MISS MCGONGALL (9) who could easily lay claim to being the class runner and can cover our bet on THE DUDE (6) is she runs him down.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$30 Win on The Dude (6) at $2.50 or better.

$10 Win on Miss McGonagall (9) at $4 or better.

The only point of genuine conjecture in this highlight event is whether or not OUT TO PLAY (2) will keep the early lead outright or be crossed early and then slightly awkwardly positioned if he cannot effect an early re-take. Either way you’d expect the monster that is RIDE HIGH (8) will bully his way to the front at some point and win with some ease while OUT TO PLAY (2) looks a moral to finish second even if things don’t work out ideally early. It’s your call from that point whether to play Tricks or First Fours but I’m gonna take a risk that IM SIR BLAKE (7) is so good he’ll overcome the horror draw to finish either third or fourth in F4’s.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi First Four: 8/ 2/ 7/ 4,6: $20 gets 1000%

Flexi First Four: 8/ 2/ 4,6/ 7: $20 gets 1000%

I’m happy to play this race for fun because we know SOHO BOLLINGER (6) will win but it’s so tough to predict the placings that we could easily have a dip and miss.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 3,7,8/ 1,2,3,7,8: $30 gets 250%

This is an impossible betting race for many reasons. One is that the market is about right. The second is that Keayang Livana is tough to punt, despite being the most promising horse right now, because she can do things working from the mobile, particularly when drawing the front row. That being said, you don’t really want to take her on and if for some reason Ronald J found his Mojo then he might simply blow them away. We’ll play it through Early Quads but that’s about it.

SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant (Confidence level that Keayang Livana will win)

This should be one of the more enjoyable exotic betting races of the night. After their massive first-up runs and with their giant reputations MAJESTUOSO (9) and SAMMY SHOWDOWN (6) are clearly the big two. One of them should win and both should occupy the dais with a clear leaning toward MAJESTUOSO (9) who may finish up being the best trotter in Australia. Staggering options around four other runners to take the remaining podium position looks the way to go and with a hint of fortune it could be a most profitable event.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 6/ 2,7: $20 gets 1000%

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 6/ 1,4: $10 gets 500%

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 2,7/ 6: $10 gets 500%

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 9/ 2,7: $6 gets 300%

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 9/ 1,4: $4 gets 200%

Another fun exotic betting affair here given it’s a two horse race once more and both OUR MILLIONAIRE (5) and PACIFICO DREAM (7) will probably fight the race out between them and even if they don’t both should occupy the dais. I admit to having a soft spot for MAJESTIC CRUISER (1) but I do believe he is most likely to share the podium with the other two if he can kick up early and hand over to one of the ‘big two’ as expected.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 7/ 1: $10 gets 1000%

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 5/ 1: $5 gets 500%

Flexi Trifecta: 5,7/ 1/ 5,7: $5 gets 250%

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 7/ 3,4,6,8: $14 gets 350%

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 5/ 3,4,6,8: $6 gets 150%

She’s a pretty smart filly but I can’t come at AMELIA ROSE (2) paying $1.15 here at all. With the exceptional early speed which may be on display here I think one of my ‘soft spot’ horse STEEL SCREENS (5) is a proper Each Way play and at $10 represents excellent value.

SUGGESTED BET:

$20 Each Way on Steel Screens (5) at $8.50 or better.

There are probably too many question marks around this race to get heavily involved but I will say this; if you witness a push for WILLIE GO WEST (3) when MBL kick in then jump aboard the train. If not, you are probably better off playing this race through main Quads only.

SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant. (Confidence level that Willie Go West will win)