How many times do we say the barrier draw is crucial in big races?
Of course there will be winners and losers when the marbles drop tomorrow (Tuesday) morning for this Hunter Cup, but the beauty of the line-up in this race is the multitude of scenarios, shaped by the strength and versatility of the key players.
That’s why this feels like a vintage Hunter Cup, like one from the 1980s, ‘90s or early 2000s.
So often in our biggest open class races over the past few years, there has been a standout, or it’s been somewhat of a match race.
Think how many times we’ve pumped-up the sibling rivalry between half-brothers Leap To Fame and Swayzee.
It’s been a great narrative and they’ve turned on some epic clashes, but this is different.
That’s not to say one of them won’t win, but there is serious depth to this Hunter Cu
Based on the past four months, especially late last year, Kingman is at least as good as the other two.
Many said he had gazumped Leap To Fame and ended his almost three years of dominance when he beat him in the Victoria and NZ Cups.
But the champ has flexed his muscle in recent weeks and turned around a 0-3 record against Kingman into two wins from five clashes.
But Kingman is a freakish talent and brings so much to this Hunter Cup.
He can do what very few have, actually go hoof-to-hoof with the likes of Leap To Fame and beat him.
Not only does he have a 3-2 record against Leap To Fame, but he is 1-1 against Swayzee, too.
While Leap To Fame outstayed him at Cranbourne last Saturday week, we now know the scary and less-than-ideal hours Kingman endured before the race with that float incident on the Hume Highway.
Nobody really knows what impact that had on his Cranbourne run, but it’s fair to say his trainer-driver Luke McCarthy and owner-breeder Mick Harvey have been itching for another crack at Leap To Fame since.
It comes on Saturday night.
“It’s great he didn’t have to race last Saturday (at Kilmore) and I know he’ll love Melton more than he has Ballarat and Cranbourne in those past two runs,” McCarthy said.
“Leap To Fame is a champion, one of the greatest we’ve ever seen, but we love racing him and can’t wait to do it again this week.”
Swayzee only ran sixth behind Leap To Fame in the Cranbourne Cup, but don’t read too much into that.
The champion stayer couldn’t get into a position to assert himself on the race from a bad draw and really grabbed the eye when he savaged the line in the last 50m and past the winning post.
Give Swayzee a draw to lead and he can do what he did last year, beat Leap To Fame.
If you doubt me, take a look at that Goulburn Cup win three starts back.
Then there is Republican Party, the standout NZ pacer of the past 12 months.
Yes, the Aussies look better than the Kiwis at the moment, but don’t forget Republican Party would’ve gone close to beating Swayzee and Leap To Fame with better luck in last year’s Hunter Cup.
And there is no doubt he is a more seasoned, mentally stronger and better horse now. He will strip a lot fitter for last Saturday night’s second in the Kilmore Cup, which was his first race in five weeks.
So, the barrier draw will be important, but it’s not everything in a race oozing talent, class and depth.
Whoever leads will get serious attention from one or maybe two of their key rivals.
At least two of the big guns will get the drop on whoever leads and sits outside the leader.
And that’s just the Hunter Cup.
The support program will also be stunning.
Keayang Zahara chasing that $500,000 bonus and her biggest win yet in the Great Southern Star.
The stunningly exciting young mare Captains Mistress clashing again with Eye Keep Smiling and Steno in the Group 1 Queen of the Pacific for mares.
Then there’s a golden ticket into the Group 1 Chariots Of Fire through the $50,000 4YO Bonanza and the entertaining dash-for-cash in the 1200m Mercury80 where eight-time Group 1 winner Catch A Wave will try and win it for a second time.
It’s going to be some night.
