Ryan Phelan has done the form for tonight’s meeting at Shepparton.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: VERY TEMPTING (11) drew poorly last start and never got the tempo required to work into the race. His prior form was solid, including a Melton victory two starts back when able to lead, while he also stuck on well after doing work the run before that. The draw is awkward again, but the race shape may suit if the tempo is only moderate.
NIVEKALON EAGLE (5) has had three runs back from a break and appears to be building nicely, producing his best effort last start when closing off well from the rear. With a kinder map, he’s open to further improvement. REASON TO LAUGH (9) continues to promise a win this season without quite putting one away. He’s consistently around the mark and this looks a suitable assignment. JOEYS HANGOVER (10) has a solid SP profile this campaign and despite just two placings from 15 starts, he’s always around the money in moderate races like this.
SELECTIONS: VERY TEMPTING (11), NIVEKALON EAGLE (5), REASON TO LAUGH (9), JOEYS HANGOVER (10)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: SIR SONNY MAGUIRE (5) has been solid in all three runs back from a spell, particularly last time when runner-up after finding the line strongly along the inside. With decent early tempo expected, he should be able to slide across and map favourably.
ELIZAJANE (2) is a brilliant beginner who draws ideally to search for the front over the short trip. She led throughout to win last time and while she may need to burn early again, she’s capable of controlling the race if she gets her own way. IM DUSTEE (10) is regularly well supported, and this race looks suitable despite the back-row draw. He worked home well at Bendigo last start from well back. DAUGHTER OFDARKNES (3) resumes from a break following a strong trial against quality opposition. Her exposed form is lighter than some rivals, but any market support would be significant.
SELECTIONS: SIR SONNY MAGUIRE (5), ELIZAJANE (2), IM DUSTEE (10), DAUGHTER OFDARKNES (3)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: REAL TEMPTATION (6) is a smart NSW visitor from an astute stable who resumes after her lone career start at Goulburn, where she scored impressively in good time. Her recent trial suggests she’s forward enough to win first-up. She possesses enough gate speed to press forward despite the draw and may simply prove too classy.
THERESHEWAS (1) has mixed her form since joining the Turnbull stable, but her last-start second was one of her better efforts. She goes from the widest draw to the pole, which is a major advantage. FENWAY PARK (9) has been very honest and only found one better last time. He’ll need to come with one run from the draw but can certainly feature. CAMERINA (10) broke through for a deserved win here last week when able to control the race in front. This is a different set-up, but she has place claims again.
BACK: REAL TEMPTATION (6) – 4.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: REAL TEMPTATION (6), THERESHEWAS (1), FENWAY PARK (9), CAMERINA (10)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: FINAL BOW (9) drops back into a much more suitable race after being outclassed last start. Her Bendigo second two starts ago from a similar draw was good, and she won four starts ago from the front row. She should trail a quick beginner and with enough speed on early, can be strong late.
CRESCO THREEPEAT (5) continues to race consistently and while the map may not be ideal, he’ll keep working to the line if the speed is genuine. TEX GOES BANG (4) is usually around the mark in races like this and can map reasonably from the draw. He’s another who grinds away strongly late. ARRAPS (3) is likely to use the draw to race prominently, though the concern is how much work he may have to do to get there.
SELECTIONS: FINAL BOW (9), CRESCO THREEPEAT (5), TEX GOES BANG (4), ARRAPS (3)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: HITCH TO HIS STAR (8) looks very well placed despite the back-row draw, particularly in a small field. His win last start was excellent, leading throughout against a handy field. He’s versatile enough to sit back and sprint, or work into the race if they go too slowly. He profiles as city class and this looks highly suitable.
SHARP INTEREST (1) commands respect on her consistent campaign and favourable draw, which should allow her to lead. The rise in class and distance does level things slightly. WITH IN REASON (6) is extremely honest and loves racing on speed, though the short trip and month between runs are slight negatives. INTERPRETATION (2) should enjoy an economical run from the draw and races well at this track. Her peak form earlier this year would see her highly competitive.
BACK: HITCH TO HIS STAR (8) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: HITCH TO HIS STAR (8), SHARP INTEREST (1), WITH IN REASON (6), INTERPRETATION (2)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: FEEL THE REIGN (1) has been racing in much stronger company from difficult draws and now gets conditions to suit. He has enough speed to land behind the leader and could represent value given his numerical form doesn’t immediately stand out.
OUR CHEEKY DEVIL (4) is often underrated but appreciates the short trip and a better draw, allowing him to settle much closer than last start. THE KING OFTHEROAD (8) won his maiden at Wagga two starts ago and must be respected despite the back-row draw. EYE SEE PHILTRA (2) seemingly had every chance last week behind the leader, but this is a significant class drop and he can’t be dismissed.
SELECTIONS: FEEL THE REIGN (1), OUR CHEEKY DEVIL (4), THE KING OFTHEROAD (8), EYE SEE PHILTRA (2)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: MAJESTIC CHARMA (7) brings different form lines to many of these and looks fitter for her first-up second when sitting parked and fighting on gamely. With added fitness and slightly easier opposition, she looks capable of going one better.
JILLIBY TOPGUN (5) is enjoying his most consistent preparation to date and although out of the placings last start, he was forced to do too much work. He remains a major player. VAN DOREN (3) beat most of these last week after receiving the ideal run and was too strong in a moderately run race. He’ll be competitive again. MONTANA MUSCLE (6) has been in terrific form over the past month with two wins from four starts and another good run would not surprise.
SELECTIONS: MAJESTIC CHARMA (7), JILLIBY TOPGUN (5), VAN DOREN (3), MONTANA MUSCLE (6)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: VICTREE VIC (8) put it all together last start at Cranbourne where he won impressively against some in-form types. He raced against elite juveniles last campaign and resumed this prep by breaking in running when favourite. There looks significant upside and this race sets up nicely.
SHINELIKETHESUN (3) is ultra-consistent and continually runs into one better. She should map well and be right in the finish again. LITTLE MISS VALLEY (7) demolished a moderate field to break her maiden last start, though she had shown promise prior. The draw makes things tougher, but she’s going very well. WALKIN UNDERSTARZ (4) resumes from a spell after a fair trial and was a winner late last preparation. She may improve with the run but still commands respect.
BACK: VICTREE VIC (8) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: VICTREE VIC (8), SHINELIKETHESUN (3), LITTLE MISS VALLEY (7), WALKIN UNDERSTARZ (4)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: It’s hard for the eyes not to be drawn to KATIE LORRAINE (7) a first starter from a high striking stable against a moderate line up. Dig deeper and you find her trial win at Cranbourne where she looked to have enough ability to give further confidence. The wide draw is no luxury and could come up too short based the factors referenced, but she may be too good.
EEBEEBEE (5) can show speed and race prominently, either leading or sitting handy. She finds it difficult to win but is a consistent placegetter and looks better than most here. MAC JAMES (4) improved sharply last week when working home well for third. His prior form was moderate, but a repeat puts him right in the mix. OPERTSER (1) has had opportunities but gets a soft draw here and can improve into the placings.
SELECTIONS: KATIE LORRAINE (7), EEBEEBEE (5), MAC JAMES (4), OPERTSER (1)
Race 10:
OVERVIEW: DIAMONDONTHEROCKS (3) is a very quick beginner who finally looks to have found a suitable race. She should lead comfortably and there doesn’t appear to be much pressure engaged, allowing her to dictate terms. Everything points to a big run, although confidence levels are still guarded.
FIFTY SEVEN CHEVY (8) was safely beaten first-up but had to work hard in a genuinely run race. There were signs late last campaign that a win wasn’t far away and she’s fitter now. MAURLEN GRACE (5) has put together some solid efforts this campaign, particularly two starts ago when narrowly beaten after a soft run. She’ll need some luck from the draw. BEST BY A MILE (1) may appreciate the easier company and should enjoy a soft trip from the pole. Expect improvement.
SELECTIONS: DIAMONDONTHEROCKS (3), FIFTY SEVEN CHEVY (8), MAURLEN GRACE (5), BEST BY A MILE (1)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R3 #6 BACK: REAL TEMPTATION – 4.5 units (win)
R5 #8 HITCH TO HIS STAR – 2.5 units (win)
R8 #8 VICTREE VIC – 3 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
5,8,9,10,11/2,3,5,6,9,10/6/1,3,4,5,9
QUADDIE
1,6,8/1,2,3,4,5,8/3,5,6,7/3,8
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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