Ryan Phelan has your tips, strategy and Quaddies for the nine races at Shepparton.
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: TARA VICTORY (11) drops significantly back in grade from what she’s been facing at Melton in her seven runs this preparation. She won’t have the opportunity to use her gate speed from this draw, but based on her peak times, she’s significantly quicker than the majority of these. Earlier this season she won three from five when racing in similar grade, so if the tempo is suitable, she will be very strong late.
IM WESLEY (10) is racing in career-best form this season, missing a place only four times in 16 starts. Those performances have all come with the opportunity to map well, and he now goes to the back row for the first time this season. However, there does appear to be a lot of speed off the front row, which may bring the backmarkers into it. HELLO POSSUMS (3) resumes from a break here off a couple of good trials, and her best preparation last time in saw her win two from three. She’s in the mix for the speed map, but there are a few others likely to have a look. MOMENTUM SHIFT (9) is another who finds more suitable company, having raced in strong races, often from bad draws. He can punch through off a solid tempo, and the last time he was in this ratings band he was a winner at Melton. As far as the minor money is concerned, it’s a long tail of chances, so play wide on the bottom line for exotics.
BACK: TARA VICTORY (11) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: TARA VICTORY (11), IM WESLEY (10), HELLO POSSUMS (3), MOMENTUM SHIFT (9)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: BULLETPROOF KID (6) has been flying this preparation and finds his most suitable race to grab a well-deserved win. When he’s been beaten in his past four runs, it has been by horses who have been competitive in quality races at Melton, and he’s gone down fighting and narrowly. He has very good gate speed to be assertive over the middle trip, and the claim of the in-form Ewa Justice, who gets on well with him, is a plus.
MADAM REACTOR (5) will also run the gate, and her regular pattern is to take cover thereafter. She’s been racing honestly and likes this track, so will get her chance if that pattern eventuates. COOL STORY (10) has been racing well this season, winning two from six, and his two recent silver medals were also full of merit. He will be reliant on a solid tempo, but he’s in the mix. ANIMADO (11) has his first run since May without a trial, and although his numerical form looks plain, he has ability and loves the track. JULZ MARIE (1) and ELATED (4) have minor claims for exotics.
BACK: BULLETPROOF KID (6) – 2.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: BULLETPROOF KID (6), MADAM REACTOR (5), COOL STORY (10), ANIMADO (11)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: AGAINST THE BRIDLE (7) turned in a career-best run last time at his 100th start at Kilmore, running a peak mile rate and winning by 32 metres with an aggressive drive that saw him take the lead mid-race and run along. Surprisingly, that was only regular stable driver James Herbertson’s second drive on him. There may be a few looking for the top spot here, but none can put down similar times, and if he can back up that performance, he will be very hard to beat.
I AM HARRO (8) can mix his form, but his best keeps him in the hunt here. He was a good winner five runs ago at Bendigo, where he came from back in the field. His last couple have been below par, but he can bounce back against suitable opposition. ALDEBARAN MARCUS (9) has been sound in his past few runs and loomed up strongly last start before just peaking late. If the speed is on, it could help him work into it. Outside of those, it will come down to who gets the best run for the third/fourth spots, with KALARNEY PRINCE (6) and JESSICAS STORY (10) heading those chances.
BACK: AGAINST THE BRIDLE (7) – 4 units (win)
SELECTIONS: AGAINST THE BRIDLE (7), I AM HARRO (8), ALDEBARAN MARCUS (9), JESSICAS STORY (10)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: OHHEMMJAY CRESCO (4) comes here fitter third-up and in suitable grade to produce his best over the short trip. He led up last time at Melton and was just outsprinted when fourth. Back to his home track, this opposition looks more suitable. Mark Pitt has had one drive on him for a win, which is another positive.
TASTE IT (3) resumes here from a soft draw without a trial, but her form before going out for a break was sound enough for this grade. She gets the country’s top driver, which is a bonus. ARRAPS (6) turned in a nice effort last week when second, doing his best work late after the winner stole a march. His tactical speed gives him options from what appears a sticky draw. CLIVES GIRL (9) is always popular in the market in these races but has been a bit costly. This does, however, look to be another suitable assignment, so she is worth keeping safe. Minor chances go to MAJOR MAURIE (11), OLLY ODD POTTS (5), QUEENHIGH FLUSH (10) and ALCATRAZ GIRL (8), who are all capable of improvement with the right runs.
BACK: OHHEMMJAY CRESCO (4) – 1.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: OHHEMMJAY CRESCO (4), TASTE IT (3), ARRAPS (6), CLIVES GIRL (9)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: A very even race where luck in running may well prove the difference. FINAL BOW (4) was a strong winner here last week, albeit in an easier race, but she had to earn it from the outside of the front row, making ground from back in the field and putting down solid sectionals. She can afford a positive drive from the more favourable draw and map closer this time, and if she reproduces last week’s effort, she will take holding out.
TREACHEROUSTIMES (3) is a quick beginner and will likely be used from the low gate, as he was a winner here two starts back when able to lead all the way and does have a liking for this track. TOMMYS LOOKOUT (2) was great here last week in an easier race, where despite sitting parked he was too strong for the opposition in a time that may be good enough at this level. TOBYS SHOUT (6) has now had two runs for the new stable, and his last start may be an indication he’s heading in the right direction. The draw is a little tricky, but he’s in the mix. WINGATE GUY (1) and CARUSO STAR (8) aren’t without a chance from their soft draws either.
SELECTIONS: FINAL BOW (4), TREACHEROUSTIMES (3), TOMMYS LOOKOUT (2), TOBYS SHOUT (6)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: A very high-quality race mixing 2yos and 3yos, and there’s some potentially smart talent engaged. STRAATHDALE (3) stepped out at a recent trial at Melton and looked very smart, quickly finding the lead before extending brilliantly with a final quarter of 26.4. He had four good trials prior to that also, so he’s had plenty of experience to attempt to lead all the way on debut here.
INDULGEME (4) looked very smart in a recent trial here, where he took on older horses and let down with a powerful finish. This stable is striking at an incredible rate with its young debutants at the moment, and this one looks to have plenty of promise.
MY ROCKING HORSE (1) ran into one who looks really smart when recording a good second on debut and had to do it tough last time when runner-up again. Both times were sharp, and the softer draw now is in her favour. KONSTAS (8) was terrific winning on debut but now goes to the back row and will be giving some smart types a start. And we haven’t even got to the 3yos AMADA VILLMA (5), TOUCH OF REALITY (6), PIASTRI (7) and THERESHEWAS (9), all of whom would have genuine claims under these conditions normally, but they’ve struck some pretty talented-looking opposition here.
SELECTIONS: STRAATHDALE (3), INDULGEME (4), MY ROCKING HORSE (1), KONSTAS (8)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: Looks an impossible race with limited form to get excited about. Wide in the Quaddie. SHEER ME (3) had her first run for the new stable at Ararat and didn’t have the cleanest passage there, getting checked back to last. She found the line okay, so from a more favourable draw and set-up, she can be in the mix.
AXIS ANGEL (1) followed the peg line last start in a solid field and was okay to the line. The soft draw and Herbertson help his chances. DYGNALI (2) turned in a sound performance first-up from the same draw. With added fitness, she is open to improvement. MANFREDI (6) is her stablemate and comes here first-up. Last preparation he turned in a couple of okay runs in more challenging company than he meets here. SPOT THE DEVIL (5) changes stables, so could be open to improvement, and it may pay to monitor any betting moves. SANDEE CHEEKS (7) resumed with a third from a much softer draw last time, but the winner was much better than this opposition, so she will appreciate the class drop.
SELECTIONS: SHEER ME (3), AXIS ANGEL (1) DYGNALI (2), MANFREDI (6)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: AUSSIE JAY MAC (7) is a horse who, when he does everything right, shows he’s smart, as evidenced last time when he ran to the lead and recorded very good time for this grade. This draw isn’t as favourable, but he retains the same driver to push forward assertively, and even if he must sit parked, he can be hard to run down.
MAMMALS REASON (5) is in excellent form this season, winning three of her past four. She may map to get a decent run, and although this is tougher, she’s right in it on what she’s been showing. ELIZAJANE (3) will no doubt be popular with punters, as she often is, particularly returning to a front-row draw where she can map well. Her last win came when she was able to lead. Those likely to settle close to the peg line in KNOW THE SCORE (1), HIGHVIEW HAMMER (2) and SWEET LOUANNE (8) are in contention to fight for the minor end of the prize.
SELECTIONS: AUSSIE JAY MAC (7), MAMMALS REASON (5), ELIZAJANE (3), KNOW THE SCORE (1)
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: OUR MYSTERY BET (7) is crying out for another win and put in one of the runs of the night last week when sitting parked in decent time, only to be swooped late. He’s a horse who always runs at even fractions, which leaves him vulnerable late, but he’s going very well.
MISS PIGGY WIGGY (4) returns to the front row and looks to get a good map here, with cover likely from out wide. She was finding the line well last time out and does tend to race well at this track. DOT BALL (5) has been in good form over the past month or so, winning two of her last three. She gets the type of set-up she likes, with good gate speed around her allowing her to sit off them and come with one run. SPUN SILVER (2) is a quick beginner and will be looking for the lead here, a position she races best in, as evidenced by her two wins this season from that position. She will take running down from there.
SELECTIONS: OUR MYSTERY BET (7), MISS PIGGY WIGGY (4), DOT BALL (5), SPUN SILVER (2)
10-UNIT GAME PLAN
R1 #11 TARA VICTORY – 2 units (win)
R2 #6 BULLETPROOF KID – 2.5 units (win)
R3 #7 AGAINST THE BRIDLE – 4 units (win)
R4 #4 OHHEMMJAY CRESCO – 1.5 units (win)
EARLY QUADDIE
3,10,9,11/5,6,10/7/3,4,6,9
QUADDIE
1,2,3,4,6,8/3,4/3,5,7/2,4,5,7
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licenced bookmaker.
For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au
** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10
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