Every Saturday, Ryan Phelan hunts for the most reliable locks to strengthen your multi bets. By analysing race maps, sectional times, and key trainer/driver combinations, he delivers sharp insights to add confidence – and a touch of excitement – to your harness racing, thoroughbred, or sports multis.
Each selection is rated with low, medium, or high confidence and includes a suggested place or win price. The goal? Minimise risk, maximise consistency, and stack the odds in your favour for a strong overall return.
Race 1 – 2240m APG VICBRED Super Series (3yo Colts & Geldings) 1st SF
1/2 Soho Charmer – Michael Stanley/Michael Stanley
An incredibly strong Semi Final of the VICBRED series to kick things off, with an elite group of 3yos, many of whom performed terrifically in the heats. It will come down to pattern and luck in running, and with Soho Charmer coming up with his best draw in a long time, he may be able to thwart the Emma Stewart assault. He was brilliant off the back row in his heat, and I’d love to see him send a message by leading all the way against a talented bunch.
Confidence: Low Rated Win Price: $4.00
Race 2 – 2240m APG VICBRED Super Series (3yo Colts & Geldings) 2nd SF
2/5 The Niteshift – Luke McCarthy/Luke McCarthy
The Niteshift couldn’t have been any more impressive in his heat victory, where he was able to lead from a similar draw and win in the fastest time of the night with something in hand. His main rivals will be happy to duck for cover here and have something in the locker for the final, and with that pattern, he could be set for one of the most comfortable wins of the night.
Confidence: High Rated Win Price: $1.50
Race 3 – 2240m BENSTUD Standardbreds Pace
3/7 Lougle – Connor Clarke/Stephen Clarke
Lougle has been flying in three runs for the new stable, taking on good company, often from bad draws, and has been unlucky not to register a victory. He’s again faced with a tough draw, but he strikes easier opposition than what he’s faced, and looks well graded on the ratings scale. He can afford an aggressive drive with his tactical speed, and if he finds the right map, he can break through for a deserved win at headquarters.
Confidence: Medium Rated Win Price: $3.50
Race 4 – 2240m APG VICBRED Super Series (3yo Fillies) 1st SF
4/12 Bettor Beach – Mark Pitt/Emma Stewart
It wouldn’t surprise to see Bettor Beach punch through at the start behind her stablemate, barring any scratchings and provided they start in order, before working her way to the front, or at least into a handy position, with top driver Mark Pitt aboard. She was clearly back to her best in the heat after a problematic Brisbane campaign. She’s the one to beat in the final, and the draw here may get you a better price.
Confidence: Medium Rated Win Price: $2.30
Race 5 – 2240m APG VICBRED Super Series (3yo Fillies) 2nd SF
5/5 Quatro Moth – Mark Pitt/Emma Stewart
There’s no question Quatro Moth was disappointing for punters first-up, leading and having every chance as a $1.30 favourite before finishing third. She will take up a big percentage of the market here again and looks the one to beat, likely finding the lead at some stage. It’s hard to take the price, but it’s equally hard to have the confidence to tip against her, with her main rivals looking likely to map poorly.
Confidence: Medium Rated Win Price: $2.50
Race 6 – 2240m APG VICBRED Super Series (2yo Colts & Geldings) 1st SF
6/4 Soho Bellagio – Michael Stanley/Michael Stanley
Soho Bellagio went back in his heat and had to do plenty of work over the final lap, and his individual sectionals were excellent. He now gets a more favourable map and will look to take advantage and lead. There are others in the race who performed well, but they appear disadvantaged by the likely pattern, with Soho Bellagio potentially controlling the speed on the peg line while the others are forced to work.
Confidence: High Rated Win Price: $1.60
Race 7 – 2240m APG VICBRED Super Series (2yo Colts & Geldings) 2nd SF
7/11 Cardigan Sniper – Mark Pitt/Emma Stewart
Cardigan Sniper and Some High are clearly the best two horses in this race and have come up with extreme opposites in the draws. As can often happen in semi-finals, poor draws can be overcome with a view to keeping some petrol in the tank for the final, and I think Some High is the best horse in the race, but the draw means Cardigan Sniper can lead all the way.
Confidence: High Rated Win Price: $1.20
Race 8 – 2240m APG VICBRED Super Series (2yo Fillies) 1st SF
8/6 Kahula – Mark Pitt/Emma Stewart
Kahula delivered on her big wraps in her heat, finding the lead and winning with something in hand. The map looks perfect here, with the main speed drawn to her inside likely to look for cover again. Thereafter, it doesn’t appear there will be any pressure, allowing her to control the race as she likes before extending easily over the final 600m and proving too fast for them. She looks a multi lock.
Confidence: High Rated Win Price: $1.20
Race 9 – 2240m APG VICBRED Super Series (2yo Fillies) 2nd SF
9/5 Ideal Frankie – Mark Pitt/Allan McDonough
Ideal Frankie can lay claim to being one of the most exciting 2yos this season, undefeated in four attempts at Melton, with her only miss coming against the boys in the rich Protostar in Brisbane. She looked back to her brilliant best in her heat and will use her high gate speed to lead these. There’s some quality behind her, but they will all either have to work at some stage or simply may not be at her level, so it could be a case of how far.
Confidence: High Rated Win Price: $1.20
Race 10 – 2240m Aldebaran Park Trot
10/5 Vici Bloom – Mark Pitt/Lisa Pitt
The scratching of Freight Shaker makes the speed map a lot easier for Vici Bloom to carve across to the lead here, and whether she holds or takes cover, she brings the right form to win again. Here win here last time was her first in ten attempts, so she’s no good things and you are being asked to take very short odds.
Confidence: Medium Rated Win Price: $2.40
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