Trainer Ray Green can be forgiven for being a little wary of major Cup races that are won at the start, because last time he ended up in that position it cost Copy That any chance in the New Zealand Cup.
That was last month when Copy That was left flat footed at Addington as Self Assured got a walk-up start to that Cup and, after just 200m of the 3200m Group 1, the race was over.
Copy That may find himself in that same position in tonight’s $200,000 Woodlands Stud Auckland Cup, but this time Green hopes it works to his advantage.
Copy That starts tonight’s 3200m from barrier two with favourite Spankem at barrier four and Amazing Dream having her first standing start in between them at three.
While the race has more winning chances than just those three, both Spankem and Copy That would be extremely hard to run down if they were able to lead into the first bend tonight or secure the lead soon after.
That early battle of manners is doubly important because both horses have tended to be at their best in front but often vulnerable coming wide. So whoever wins the battle for the front increases their own chances, but more than likely puts the other out of their comfort zone.
Green thinks he can win that battle and the Cup.
“I don’t think what happened to him in the NZ Cup will bother him,” says Green.
“He is such a laid back horse and his work has been great. He stepped quickly at the workouts last weekend and I think he can do that again.
“If he does I want him in front, because I don’t think he has ever been beaten in front.”
A couple of hard runs, most notably that NZ Cup eighth, and some more recent defeats may have seen Copy That lose some of his lustre, but his last loss is best forgotten when he was driven cold, which might have given him a little confidence boost hitting the line hard.
At his best, if he can lead tonight it will take a supreme performance to beat him and the only rival who would seem likely to give him a start and that beating would be Spankem.
While his most elite performances, most notably winning the Miracle Mile, have been when leading, Spankem did come from last to beat Self Assured in a 3000m Methven Cup this season, which suggests he has options, and the 3200m tonight is not as big an issue as some may think.
As good as Copy That is, Spankem’s last two victories suggest he deserves favouritism tonight and he could start close to $2.
Amazing Dream is the hard horse to figure out.
At her best she came from behind Copy That to beat him in the Woodlands Derby here last season, but she was also beaten by Beyond Words last start, fell in against the mares the start before and hasn’t looked truly commanding this campaign.
Yet she finds herself second favourite when, by the stats, it is hard to make a case for her being shorter than Copy That.
She has real x-factor and can win still but, on form, she looks no better chance than Ashley Locaz or Thefixer, both of who are far more proven in open company.
Not many mares win one of New Zealand’s two major pacing Cups and she doesn’t profile like the next one to do so, but with every other major contender tonight having at least one doubt over them she might be able to pull it off following a hot speed.
While Green is hoping for a quick getaway to help him win tonight’s Cup, he knows he may have to rely on tempo to win tonight’s equal richest race, the $200,0000 NZBS Harness Million, with American Dealer.
The little star was fantastic beating most of his race rivals tonight in the Alabar Classic last start but from barrier eight it might need some early tempo to soften the leaders up tonight.
“But he is up for it. He is a real little pro so he is ready to win even though it won’t be easy,” says Green.
“I think he is still the best horse in the race, I think he showed that last start.”
Michael Guerin’s Auckland Cup tip: Spankem 1, Copy That 2, Amazing Dream 3.
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