Goodform Gameplan: Ballarat Saturday August 14

Who knows why but every time I think I’ve found one at ‘value’ early in the week of late it comes up a very similar price to what I’ve marked it; my heart says I should stick with LITTLE YANKEE (3) but my head says the $15 about ZAREM (10) now represents excellent value and so I’m leaning that way tonight. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$10 Each Way ZAREM (10) at $12 or better

If MISTER FORTUNIA (6) had opened at something similar to the $5 I marked him I’d be tempted here as I think he leads and so does his mentor Andy Gath. At $3.50 however I’ll leave that temptation to others as TINDER SURPRISE (11) has clearly go the class edge on these if he brings his best. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that Tinder Surprise (11) will win)

SAHARA SIROCCO (8) looks the one here and he should run top two, so we’ll play this a couple of different ways. Multiples with him to finish first or second and something straight out on WOULD YOU MIND (2) who will be much better for his first run in over a month last start and should be significantly shorter that the $4.80 we’re currently getting. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 2,5/ 1,2,3,4,5,7: $20 gets 200% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2,5/ 8/ 1,2,3,4,5,7: $10 gets 100% 

$10 Win WOULD YOU MIND (2) at $3.50 or better

Despite the reasonable jump in grade this race represents I think NIKKI LOUISE (4) is very bear a moral. In fact, I actually thought there was a good chance she’s open $1.30. She’s actually opened $1.55 which is definitely attractive for multi players but from a single-race perspective I reckon we target lean, mean exotics where DANCING WITH FLO (1) must run either second or third. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 1/ 3,6,7: $30 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 3,6,7/ 1: $10 gets 333.33%

This wasn’t my original play, but SIRLETIC (8) has opened crazy odds ($8) and I can’t turn my head. He may not be racing at his absolute best, but his absolute best is better than these and wit some conjecture over tactics he might find himself in a territory which suits his style of racing. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Each Way SIRLETIC (8) at $5.50 or better

I’m emotionally affected by not seeing HULI NIEN (2) open at $8 so rather than backing him straight out at a much shorter quote I’m playing a few Trifectas instead. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 2,4/ 2,4,5/ 2,3,4,5,10,12,13: $40 gets 200% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2,4/ 12,13/ 2,3,4,5,10,12,13: $16 gets 80% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2,4/ 10/ 2,3,4,5,12,13: $4 gets 40%

I literally have no guide on how this race will play out, but I love MARGARET RUTH (5) as a horse, I loved her last start effort, and she relishes these conditions. She may finish midfield, but I can’t ignore her at the $51 quote. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$5 Win & $15 Place MARGARET RUTH (5) at $21 or better

I won’t lie, when I rated STINGRAY TARA (3) on top here I secretly hoped he’d open double figures given how hard he’s found it to win of late despite racing well. As it turns out he’s opened $6.50 which is very close to my slated quote, but I just see this working out so well for him I’m staying the course. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Each Way STINGRAY TARA (3) at $6 or better

Market intelligence will play a role here as the class runner BONDI LOCKDOWN (7) is coming back from Queensland but if he’s not a mad drifter, then he should win. He actually appeals as a straight-out wager at $1.90 right now as he’s got plenty on these but I’m opting to play Tricks instead. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 4,5/ 3,4,5,6,7,8: $30 gets 300%

I literally cannot believe BETTER EXCLUSIVE (4) has opened in the red here. The great news is we now have a unique opportunity to back my top pair for a result. ZUBERI (3) has been racing in the best class and BELLE OF BROOKLYN (1) has the draw she requires  

SUGGESTED BET: 

$25 Win ZUBERI (3) at $3.50 or better 

$15 Win BELLE OF BROOKLYN (1) at $5 or better