Goodform Gameplan: Ballarat Saturday January 22

When I priced tonight’s opening event, fear precluded me from marking anything longer than $16. Fortunately, the bookies have been somewhat more cavalier. Many punters can’t psychologically cope with backing multiple runners, far less backing plural runners Each Way, but it’s actually to their detriment. Here, I’m keen to play MONA MIA (11) Each Way along with ROSARITO MISS (1) who draws ideally for her pattern and SHESMYBABY (8) – who is sickening odds – on a 1 x 2 basis for varying amounts. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$30 Each Way MONA MIA (11) at $5.50 or better 

$10 Win $20 Place ROSARITO MISS (1) at $12 or better 

$5 Win $10 Place SHESMYBABY (8) at $21 or better

Former Kiwi mare VACATION HILL (10) looks a certainty first-up on Australian soil tonight. Generally, despite her prohibitive odds, having such a clear likely winner sets the perfect platform for exotic wagers. Not so here, with too many options to fill the podium behind her, The better play, based on price, is backing our third and fourth picks, CUCHULAINN (9) and LUCINDA MAC (8) on a place-only basis. If one fills a hole we’ll double our money at least, if both fill the dais we’ll get a decent result. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$20 Place LUCINDA MAC (8) & CUCHUALAINN (9) at $4 apiece

There’s plenty against YOUAREMY SUNSHINE (2) tonight. He’s first-up in a strong field where his major threats will likely occupy more advantageous roles. With that in mind, he’s also a genuine gun and, critically, his last two fresh runs have yielded wins in 1:55.1 and 1:55.8, the two fastest middle-trip successes of his career. I wouldn’t be interested in short odds, but his current quote of $6.50 is very appealing. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$15 Each Way YOUAREMY SUNSHINE (2) at $5.50 or better

The final leg of tonight’s Quad represents a sickening situation. HI MANAMEISJEFF (1) is my best bet all night, but nothing could make me back him straight out at $1.50. Sadly, I also can’t find a way to play him as an isolated winner in exotics. If you’re feeling so inclined, the best option here might be level-staked Tricks with the polemarker to win and STEEL SCREENS (8) to finish second or third from the trail given my confidence about HI MANAMEISJEFF (1) is, in no small part, based upon the fact he'll likely lead with precious little pressure. Otherwise, our Best Bet’s value comes through Early Quads alone. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant (Confidence that Hi Manameisjeff (1) will win)

The main way we’re planning to raise funds from tonight’s feature trot is via value through the Quad. If IM READY JET (9) and MAORI LAW (10) both go under – and both are too short – then we are away. As for playing a single wager, the obvious option is KEAYANG LIVANA (6). On her day she’s as good as anything here and her front line draw is an almighty advantage. Also, Marg Lee wouldn’t be running her unless she was ready. Sadly, we missed the $23 top fluc but anything with two number is good enough tonight. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Each Way KEAYANG LIVANA (6) at $9 or better.

Typically speaking, I bracket the runners I’m willing to back in any given race and ignore the rest regardless of price. Every rule, however, has it’s exception and this race represents that exception. Here’s the story. CRUZ BROMAC (7) is easily the best horse engaged but has already drifted from $1.35 to $1.65, and that drift is meaningful. Without doubt the obvious option to roll the fave is APHORISM (4) and at his opening quote of $7 getting involved wasn’t a question. Now, at $4.40 he’s skinny enough that I’m looking elsewhere and instead playing 1 x 3 on BETTOR BE THE BOMB (9) who’s $26 and has a massive class edge on most of these while also releasing a half-court floater on SHORTYS MATE (3) the drum given his insane present price. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$5 Win $25 Place BETTOR BE THE BOMB (9) at $14 or better. 

$20 Place SHORTYS MATE (3) at $8 or better

Going to play some of our only exotics all night in tonight’s feature event. Despite doubts over what last week’s brutal return to racing stole from him, LOCHINVAR ART (2) is other-worldly and if he finds the front as expected, there should be no running him down. With relatively obvious class tiers among his rivals there are myriad ways we can play multiples. And play multiples we shall. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 9/ 1,3,7,11: $24 gets 600% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,3,7,11/ 9: $20 gets 500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,3,9/ 1,3,7,9,11: $30 gets 250% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 7/ 1,3,9,11: $4 gets 100% 

We’re playing an angle in the penultimate contest on tonight’s Group 1 card. And this is the angle. With so much speed drawn off the front, the pace should be lethal through the first few hundred metres and once positions are established SWEET LOUISE (5) has an established proclivity to pull and reef in transit. Should she act to the pace genuine then late closers will get their chance to shine. The best of these late closers is IDEALSOMEMAGIC (6) closely followed by BERNIE WINKLE (9) and both are current overs if our angle wins the day. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$25 Each Way IDEALSOMEMAGIC (7) at $5 or better 

$15 Each Way on BERNIE WINKLE (9) at $8.50 or better

If there’s a third moral on the card tonight it should be JUST HOPE (6). Much like the others, she’s too short to back straight out but if we’re flying as the finish line looms, a sneaky, silly Trick may add sugar to our previous profits. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 4/ 1,3,5: $30 gets 1000%