Goodform Gameplan: Ballarat Saturday October 16

Wagering on instinct is a feast or famine business, as we discovered with Sugar Me last weekend. I’m happy to back my gut if there’s a reasonable reward at the end of the rainbow but I’m not sure that reward is good enough here with MIRAKURU (8). If you’re gagging for a bet in the first I’m confident he’s the best horse and can overcome his awkward alley but at $3.70 I’m willing to watch and wait early doors. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that Mirakuru will win) 

It’s a very similar situation here as in the first. I’m a big fan of ALBY TWO CHAINS (5) and confidently suspect he’s the best horse in this event but where he gets to in transit does mean I’d need $6 to get involved. If he somehow bullies his way to the front I’ll be kicking myself but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. You can make your own mind up with the IP available. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that Alby Two Chains will win) 

Right. Now we start punting. It’s very fair to say that I much prefer the $4.60 that STINGRAY TARA (6) opened than the $3 currently available, but he is the best horse engaged for mine and will never get a better chance to break his metro maiden, poor draw and all. I’m not sure I could take anything shorter than $2.80 but betting now looks the way to go here as I feel he’ll only continue to firm. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win STINGRAY TARA (6) at $2.80 or better

Backing juvenile trotters takes a type of courage I don’t normally possess so I’m staying out of this Tatlow Stakes. If you’re very keen to play then backing PLYMOUTH CHUBB (13) to win and REVELSTOKE (1) to place is a reasonable option but, personally, I’ll be staying out. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that Plymouth Chubb will win) 

Ok; so, there are MANY ways to play this race, but on face value it’s a throwback to the days preceding the NR system and the proliferation of PBD conditions. If you got the $2.2 about IDEALSOMEMAGIC (1) you are exceptionally well placed and even the $1.8 still available provides the simplest way to attack this contest. You can also have a same-race multi with SANTA CASA BEACH (3) to win and IDEALSOMEMAGIC (1) to run a drum. For more traditional players the Tricks outlined below should also yield a reward. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1/ 8,10: $40 gets 2000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 8,10/ 1: $20 gets 1000%

Even though JILLIBY SYLVESTER (6) represents decent overs when compared with my listed quote ($3.8 v $2.8), I’m still shying away from having a decent go on this event. If Sylvester leads he should salute but there are enough variables to worry me here and not enough value in other runners so a small investment only is advised. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Win JILLIBY SYLVESTER (6) at $3.50 or better

There’s a bit to work with in tonight’s feature event for the pacing mares. Despite my natural fear of MAAJIDA (11) second up I just sense the barrier draw advantage for SPELLBOUND (9) is even bigger than it looks on paper and that she will salute. The fact I see MAAJIDA (11) as the clear second pick and ENCHANTED STRIDE (10) as the clear third pick helps us build exotics, but I will say this; the $2.6 for ENCHANTED STRIDE (10) a drum is overs. Not massive overs, but overs. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 11/ 10: $20 gets 2000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 10/ 11: $10 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 11/ 2,3: $20 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 10/ 2,3: $10 gets 500%

I talk a great deal about ‘punting personality’ on various media platforms and my personality – for better or worse – badly conflicts when I back horse purely based on ‘overs’. For mine, BANGLEZ (2) represents ‘overs’ here at better than your-for-theirs but I’m juts not drawn to play. So, I won’t. If you’re personality is that little bit different then she’s the one I’d back with, perhaps, a small spec place investment on the underrated SANGREAL (5). 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that Banglez will win)

The faves are all too short for my liking in this event and while my confidence isn’t massive I do think LITTLE YANKEE (4) has the speed and talent to worry these with the right run so we’re having something small on a 1 x 3 basis here without any massive expectations. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$5 Win & $15 Place LITTLE YANKEE (4) at $16 or better

Finding proper ‘value’, particularly when markets have settled following the early re-calibration, is brutally difficult these days, but I reckon I might have one here. Almost every runner in this fantastic $100K Claimer is a sit-sprinter by nature. That means the tempo is likely to be moderate following the early burn. That early burn should be a battle between YORKSHIRE (2) and OZZIE BATTLER (3). If YORKSHIRE (2) wins that battle the $7 currently available looks crazy overs and even if he doesn’t he’ll only need a hint of luck to get out late and roll these regardless. He is the best value wager all night. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$25 Each Way YORKSHIRE (2) at $5 or better

OLLIVICI (5) is clearly the most exciting horse in tonight’s final contest and should win but I’m not inspired by the red-figure quote so staying out – and hopefully counting our cash – looks the smart move, but if you’re keen he should win and ELECTROJET (6) should likely finish second. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

Nothing significant (Confidence that Ollivici will win)