Race 1
Confidence:
Before looking at prices for tonight’s opening event I convinced myself nothing could make me get involved. Then I saw HAVANA (9) at $3.90. With the emergency getting a run he now comes off the pegs and has the strongest from by far. Even money at best hope for mine.
SUGGESTED BET:
$30 Win HAVANA (9) at $2.40 or better
Race 2
Confidence:
If TOUGH TILLY (5) is within earshot of her best she’ll find the front and win easily with stablemate PLATINUM SPARKLE (2) trailing her and clearly finishing second. If we take that notion of the stove we can cook up some tasty exotics should one, or perhaps two things go to plan.
SUGGESTED BET:
Flexi First Four: 5/ 2/ 9,10/ 1,4,6,7,9,10: $40 gets 400%
Flexi First Four: 5/ 2/ 1,4,6,7/ 9,10: $10 gets 125%
Race 3
Confidence:
Funny old situation here where BEACH MUSIC (5) seems too short ($1.35) but so many aspects play in her favour (leads, heat-racing with minimal pressure) that she does seem all-but over the line. On pure talent there’s no doubt her only threat and the likely silver-medallist is superstar Kiwi filly BETTOR TWIST (11) but with DOUGS BABE (1) likely to trail the fave there is some small hope she can also finish second. Again, in the search for value we’re playing F4’s rather than tricks and hoping for some back-end odds.
SUGGESTED BET:
Flexi First Four: 5/ 11/ 1/ 8,9,10: $30 gets 1000%
Flexi First Four: 5/ 1/ 11/ 8,9,10: $10 gets 333.33%
Race 4
Confidence:
Something disconcerts me about this event. There aren’t any doubts LADIES IN RED (10) should win given her mind-boggling talent, but she doesn’t HAVE to win. Andy Gath’s Kiwi filly LIFES A BEACH (2) has the draw, but we have no guarantees she’ll run second. Courtesy of these factors I’m treading a touch more warily here – but only a touch – and hoping we make all the right moves with the staggers provided below.
SUGGESTED BET:
Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 2,11/ 2,5,11: $30 gets 750%
Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 2,11/ 3,4,8: $15 gets 250%
Race 5
Confidence:
As a hardened, aging punter with traditional roots I totally get the resistance some feel toward Bundle Bets; but they’re actually quite good. And this race lends itself to the bet type beautifully. If you simply can’t bring yourself to playing what is ultimately a level-stake wager with slightly more value, then have a touch more on YAMBUKIAN (5) than ROCK N ROLL DOO (4) but I’m doing the Bundle. At time of writing, you’re getting $2.37 for the pair, and I think the right price for this wager is something like $1.90.
SUGGESTED BET:
$40 Bundle Bet with YAMBUKIAN (5) & ROCK N ROLL DOO (4) at $2.20 or better
Race 6
Confidence:
Readers would surely have realised that exotics are the theme of the night, and we’ll go again her, but with lower confidence. ACT NOW (9) was going to win this BC heat regardless, but with Bar Room Banta out he’ll simply do as he pleases. Class-wise BETTOR CALL ME (6) is a clear second pick but DRAIN THE SWAMP (4) has benefitted majorly from his stablemate’s scratching.
SUGGESTED BET:
Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 4,6/ 1,4,6,8: $30 gets 500%
Race 7
Confidence:
The Trifecta in this final BC heat for the evening looks so simplistic it almost can’t happen. Plainly put, there’s a 95% chance BEYOND DELIGHT (1) leads with MAJOR MOTH (1) trailing and AMERICAN DEALER (8) three poles. If they go as slow as expected the little issue may be AMERICAN DEALER (8) missing third so we’ll play tricky in a race we probably shouldn’t.
SUGGESTED BET:
Flexi First Four: 2/ 1/ 8/ 6,7,9,10,11: $30 gets 600%
Flexi First Four: 1/ 2/ 8/ 6,7,9,10,11: $15 gets 300%
Flexi First Four: 2/ 1/ 6,7,9,10,11/ 8: $3 gets 66.67%
Flexi First Four: 1/ 2/ 6,7,9,10,11/ 8: $2 gets 40%
Race 8
Confidence:
This isn’t a race I wanted to play in, but THE CHANCER (6) was $17 last night and that lured me in. He’s $13 now and I wouldn’t take much shorter but he’s the best roughie all night and if you’re stinging for a non-exotic EW wager, this may be the one.
SUGGESTED BET:
$5 Win & $15 Place THE CHANCER (6) at $12 or better
Race 9
Confidence:
Thanks for coming, but it’s a no from me.
SUGGESTED BET:
Nothing significant
Race 10
Confidence:
Again, I appreciate your time but we’re not hiring at the moment.
SUGGESTED BET:
Nothing significant
Early Quaddie
Only true thrill-seekers should or will attack tonight’s Early Quad. If all things go to plan it will pay almost nothing. That being said, I’m a huge believer that when things look to obvious punters avoid them so pick your path and stick to it. It’s probably worth noting that I’ve had a straight-out wager on Havana in Race 1. As a result, I advise you take that bet and miss the EQ, or take the EQ and miss the early bet.
9/ 5/ 5/ 10: $40 gets 4000%
7,13/ 5/ 5/ 10: $40 gets 200%
CONFIDENCE:
Quaddie
These Quad combos will largely rely on two of three things happening.
1) Getting the first leg right with our major combo.
2) Major Moth rolling Beyond Delight.
3) Jagging some value from race eight.
If we get two of those to play in our favour, we should at least profit. All three and who knows?
4,5/ 9/ 1,2/ 3,4,6,7,9: $60 gets 300%
1,2/ 9/ 1,2/ 3,4,6,7,9: $30 gets 150%
CONFIDENCE:
Summary
Win, place, each way
Race 1:
$30 Win HAVANA (9) at $2.40 or better
Race 5:
$40 Bundle Bet with YAMBUKIAN (5) & ROCK N ROLL DOO (4) at $2.20 or better
Race 8:
$5 Win & $15 Place THE CHANCER (6) at $12 or better
Exotics
Race 2:
Flexi First Four: 5/ 2/ 9,10/ 1,4,6,7,9,10: $40 gets 400%
Flexi First Four: 5/ 2/ 1,4,6,7/ 9,10: $10 gets 125%
Race 3:
Flexi First Four: 5/ 11/ 1/ 8,9,10: $30 gets 1000%
Flexi First Four: 5/ 1/ 11/ 8,9,10: $10 gets 333.33%
Race 4:
Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 2,11/ 2,5,11: $30 gets 750%
Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 2,11/ 3,4,8: $15 gets 250%
Race 6:
Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 4,6/ 1,4,6,8: $30 gets 500%
Race 7:
Flexi First Four: 2/ 1/ 8/ 6,7,9,10,11: $30 gets 600%
Flexi First Four: 1/ 2/ 8/ 6,7,9,10,11: $15 gets 300%
Flexi First Four: 2/ 1/ 6,7,9,10,11/ 8: $3 gets 66.67%
Flexi First Four: 1/ 2/ 6,7,9,10,11/ 8: $2 gets 40%
Early Quaddie
9/ 5/ 5/ 10: $40 gets 4000%
7,13/ 5/ 5/ 10: $40 gets 200%
Quaddie
4,5/ 9/ 1,2/ 3,4,6,7,9: $60 gets 300%
1,2/ 9/ 1,2/ 3,4,6,7,9: $30 gets 150%
