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Race 1

Confidence:
 

 

Little fish will need to be sweet in the opening event but building a war chest is integral on night’s like tonight. If JIMMY THE IRISHMAN (2) finds the front without doing too much work he’s very near a moral here and he’s versatile enough even if he doesn’t so anything around the $2.20 mark appeals while the biggest early overs is SAHAR SIROCCO (10) who has class on most of these and can certainly win with better-than-even fortune. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win JIMMY THE IRISHMAN (2) at $2.20 or better 

$10 Win SAHARA SIROCCO (10) at $6 or better

Race 2

Confidence:
 

 

Those that saw SUGAR ME (12) fail in his Derby heat last weekend won’t quite comprehend by desire to punt him but here is the case. And it’s extensive. Firstly, Cran Dalgety wouldn’t have sent this horse to Oz unless he had an opinion. Secondly, he was driven in said Derby heat like he was a good horse. Thirdly, he copped a tough tun and still finished closer to the winner in his heat than PLATINUM STRIDE (2) and JILLIBY FERNANDO (7) yet starts at a much better price than them tonight. Fourthly, he was $10 last week against Act Now and a similar price here in an easier field. The other runner worth a small bet is MASTER MOONLITE (13) who should get a nice track in tonight and may have simply run into a future jet last weekend. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Win SUGAR ME (12) at $6 or better 

$10 Win MASTER MOONLITE (13) at $7.50 or better

Race 3

Confidence:
 

 

There’s a huge boom around HES CHARLIES ANGEL (10), and rightly so, but in my opinion COMMANDER BUZZ (11) is equally gifted and equally exciting. It should be remembered that he parked outside, and defeated, subsequent feature-race winner Lightning Dan at his second start and did nothing to indicate his gone backward winning his heat of this series. With the bet below we more than wipe our faces should he place and make a tidy profit if he wins. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$10 Win & $30 Place COMMANDER BUZZ (11) qt $4 or better

Race 4

Confidence:
 

 

I have rarely encountered a tougher black-type event than tonight’s Holmfield and my initial instinct is to watch on as spectator rather an investor. Then they put KYVALLEY HOTSPUR (3) at $7.50 and I realise that every time I try to get out, they pull me back in. He is my favourite horse in this field, has trialled an absolute treat, and gets Ants Butt. That’s enough for me. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$10 Each Way KYVALLEY HOTSPUR (3) at $6.50 or better

Race 5

Confidence:
 

 

It’s quite an odd situation we have here. Most that play early markets will know that BETTOR BE THE BOMB (8) was opened $51 and actually drifted to $81 at one point so hopefully many reading this had an early 1 x 5 investment on him and also played I CAST NO SHADOW (7) in a similar way at similar odds. If you haven’t then that’s not ideal, but if you have, there’s a great opportunity to supplement those spec wagers with a straight out crack at TANGO TARA (9) even though his $2.25 quote doesn’t represent value unless you’ve already diversified your portfolio. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win TANGO TARA (9) at $2.20 or better

Race 6

Confidence:
 

 

This might sound ridiculous after the Vic Derby of 2021 has been run-and-won but I honestly believe ACT NOW (3) is all but over the line. I haven’t been a believer to date, and if he hadn’t drawn to lead my doubts would still remain, but he is drawn to lead and he is in a mood. I’m well aware $200K races are contested differently to lead-up events but I’m still not sure any of the favourite’s rivals have the form or the bottom to wildly upset his rhythm out in front. I marked him $1.90 and now believe he’s a $1.70 chance so the $2.15 on offer is more than good enough. I also think a small place bet on TUPPENCE (1) is in order. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$50 Win ACT NOW (3) at almost any price, but certainly $2 or better 

$10 Place TUPPENCE (1) at $5 or better

Race 7

Confidence:
 

 

Despite my sometimes over-confident veneer, I’m as vulnerable as the next man to the tide of opinion. If I’d never heard from Emma Stewart, David Moran, Greg Sugars and others I’d genuinely believe LADIES IN RED (10) had tonight’s Oaks Final on toast, but the court of public opinion, which heavily favours BEACH MUSIC (3), has slightly unbalanced me. I’m still firmly in the champion filly’s corner but playing one saver trick that I’ll probably regret. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 3,6/ 1,3,6: $40 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 3,6/ 10/ 1,3,6: $10 gets 250%

Race 8

Confidence:
 

 

My tips say something different, but from a punting perspective I’m tackling this year’s Group 1 Victoria Cup in avid pursuit of value. As the days have passed, Greg Sugars has significantly alleyed my fears that gate eight will get the best of TRIPLE EIGHT (8) and with the breakneck speed likely here he looks incredibly well placed to swamp the two favourites if he gets one crack. As for those at massive quotes, OUT TO PLAY (3) looms large given I think he’s much better suited playing hunter than hunted and MALCOLMS RHYTHM (10) isn’t totally without a winning hope at enormous odds 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Each Way TRIPLE EIGHT (8) at $6 or better 

$4 Win & $6 Place OUT TO PLAY (3) at $21 or better 

$2 Win & $8 Place MALCOLMS RHYTHM (10) at $51 or better

Race 9

Confidence:
 

 

Early in the week I had a small wager on IM READY JET (2) at $12 as that was just obvious overs. Even $7.50 remains appealing for a horse with her ability. That being said, it just feels easier to play skinny tricks now with MAJESTUOSO (3) leading throughout. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,2/ 1,2,8: $40 gets 1000%

Race 10

Confidence:
 

 

Happy to be wrong here but without an opinion in life and punting you’re lonely and lost. My experience and instincts tell me FIAMMA (11) is simply better than her front-line stablemates and I always think these juvenile affairs are won by talent more than tactics. If you got the $6 never speak to me again. I got $3.30 and I’ve marked her $1.70 so anything better than $2.50 is large value for mine. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win FIAMMA (11) at $2.20 or better

Race 11

Confidence:
 

 

What do I say here? Yet again I feel I’ve found one in the form of SEW WHAT (3) but she was $12 when I Tweeted about her virtues and she’s now $4.80. If you’re on at $12 well played, if not, maybe play the $4.80 but well in the knowledge you’re no longer getting the price you should have. If you have got the $12 then the hedge-bet is definitely JILLIBY SYLVESTER (7). I’m pretty confident one of the two will prevail. 

SUGGESTED BET 

$30 Win SEW WHAT (3) at $4.50 or better

 

Early Quaddie

 

Playing wide in Quad legs without staggers is not normally my go but one of the crucial keys to Quad success is playing each leg as it lays. Tonight, we have two EQ legs where real value is genuinely possible so spreading the net and level staking six runners in each of those legs isn’t cowardly it’s clever. If Jimmy The Irishman cleans up in leg one I will be wishing I’d played through him harder, but he has enough obstacles that double-staking him is probably the smart move. 

2/ 2,7,10,11,12,13/ 5,10,11/ 2,3,4,6,9,11: $54 gets 50% 

9,10,11/ 2,7,10,11,12,13/ 5,10,11/ 2,3,4,6,9,11: $86 gets 26.54%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Quaddie

 

There is a huge projected pool for tonight’s Vic Cup Quad and plenty of ways you could go about playing it. For those new to my style these are parlay-style stagger. Fundamentally the top combo is what I see as most likely to happen and each of the combos beneath it leave room for one of those legs to be wrong. It’s very rare I would ever have three one-outs in any top-Quad, let alone on a night this big, but playing safe against your own beliefs will leave you kicking yourself if you’re on the money. 

9/ 3/ 10/ 5,8,13: $30 gets 500% 

9/ 3/ 10/ 1,3,9: $6 gets 100% 

9/ 3/ 3,6/ 5,8,13: $16 gets 133.33% 

9/ 2,7,12/ 10/ 5,8,13: 18 gets 100% 

6,7,8,11,12/ 3/ 10/ 5,8,13: $30 gets 100%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Summary

 

Win, place, each way

Race 1:
$30 Win JIMMY THE IRISHMAN (2) at $2.20 or better
$10 Win SAHARA SIROCCO (10) at $6 or better
Race 2:
$20 Win SUGAR ME (12) at $6 or better
$10 Win MASTER MOONLITE (13) at $7.50 or better
Race 3:
$10 Win & $30 Place COMMANDER BUZZ (11) qt $4 or better
Race 4:
$10 Each Way KYVALLEY HOTSPUR (3) at $6.50 or better
Race 5:
$30 Win TANGO TARA (9) at $2.20 or better
Race 6:
$50 Win ACT NOW (3) at almost any price, but certainly $2 or better
$10 Place TUPPENCE (1) at $5 or better
Race 8:
$20 Each Way TRIPLE EIGHT (8) at $6 or better
$4 Win & $6 Place OUT TO PLAY (3) at $21 or better
$2 Win & $8 Place MALCOLMS RHYTHM (10) at $51 or better
Race 10:
$40 Win FIAMMA (11) at $2.20 or better
Race 11:
$30 Win SEW WHAT (3) at $4.50 or better

Exotics

Race 7:
Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 3,6/ 1,3,6: $40 gets 1000%
Flexi Trifecta: 3,6/ 10/ 1,3,6: $10 gets 250%
Race 9:
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,2/ 1,2,8: $40 gets 1000%

Early Quaddie

2/ 2,7,10,11,12,13/ 5,10,11/ 2,3,4,6,9,11: $54 gets 50%
9,10,11/ 2,7,10,11,12,13/ 5,10,11/ 2,3,4,6,9,11: $86 gets 26.54%

Quaddie

9/ 3/ 10/ 5,8,13: $30 gets 500%
9/ 3/ 10/ 1,3,9: $6 gets 100%
9/ 3/ 3,6/ 5,8,13: $16 gets 133.33%
9/ 2,7,12/ 10/ 5,8,13: 18 gets 100%
6,7,8,11,12/ 3/ 10/ 5,8,13: $30 gets 100%