Race 1
Confidence:
Almost every race at HQ tonight has many winning hopes so rather than targeting ‘morals’ or playing exotics this will be a night where we back multiple runners in many races including the first. If they rate a moderate tempo here and ALDEBARAN ALISSA (5) gets the top without a fight she can win at a price but if they run along class performers ZAREM (9) and FEAR NOT (10) will be well suited and the latter is at a very big price.
SUGGESTED BETS:
$20 Win on ZAREM (9) at $6 or better
$10 Each Way on FEAR NOT (10) & ALDEBARAN ALISSA at $8.50 or better
Race 2
Confidence:
The same situation applies here with several winning chances but only three at prices which interest me. And because I think MAXACTOR (6) will win but the price is too short we’ll be investing a little less dough.
SUGGESTED BETS:
$10 Win on LOTTIE MOON at $12 or better & $10 Win on EXPLICIT CASTLE (11) at $6 or better
$5 Each Way on ROSARITO MISS (9) at $21 or better
Race 3
Confidence:
Funny race for punting this as I’m very keen on SLEEPEE (4) but the $1.70 doesn’t get my blood pumping so we’re targeting a straight place bet on C K SPUR (9) who is down in grade and racing well at $2.20 the drum.
SUGGESTED BET:
$40 Place on C K SPUR (9) at $1.80 or better
Race 4
Confidence:
I certainly respect favourite ALIENS EXIST (6) here but in a very tricky race there’s much more value about LOPEZ (1) and my top tip STAR OF TIMPANY (4).
SUGGESTED BETS:
$10 Win on LOPEZ (1) at $8.50 or better & $20 Win on STAR OF TIMPANY (4) at $4.50 or better
Race 5
Confidence:
The ship has certainly sailed here. My Best Roughie all night is IDEALSOMEMAGIC (3) but I was never thinking they’d offer $101/$14. They did and hopefully a few took a really big price. If not, I still think he’s Each Way value but I know it’s tough to board a plane that’s already reached cruising speed.
SUGGESTED BET:
$20 Each Way on IDEALSOMEMAGIC at $16 or better
Race 6
Confidence:
The scratching of Major Jodi actually helps favourite CANT TOP THIS (2) so I’m not as bullish as I was but my theory remains that ZOLIVER (9) flies fresh and we’re getting an attractive EW price.
SUGGESTED BET:
$20 Each Way ZOLIVER (9) at $8.50 or better
Race 7
Confidence:
This is hardly a slam dunk for SONNY WEAVER (10) but he’s a horse I have stacks of time for and with any fortune he can sweep straight on by tonight so $5 is very attractive. TYPHOON STRIDE (5) is also overs given what he’s capable of at his best.
SUGGESTED BETS:
$30 Win SONNY WEAVER (10) at $4 or better
$10 Each Way TYPHOON STRIDE (5) at $7 or better
Race 8
Confidence:
If we get similar prices to what’s available now then this is a Bundle Bet contest for sure. YORKSHIRE (9) is clearly a pretty nice horse and seems to love short course racing while JILLIBY LORENZO (8) has enough of a class edge to overcome his awful draw with a hint of luck. They are both $5 right now. I had them at half that quote.
SUGGESTED BET:
Bundle Bet JILLIBY LORENZO (8) and YORKSHIRE (9) at $2 or better
Race 9
Confidence:
There’s a very real chance ROCKASAKI (4) gets parked here but there’s strong evidence to suggest she’s the best horse in it so is worth a little bet at her current quote.
SUGGESTED BET:
$20 Win ROCKASAKI (4) at $3 or better
Early Quaddie
So many things can go wrong here with such even fields that we’re not going to break the bank; but there’s enough incentive if things do go right to keep us pretty interested.
5,7,9,10/ 6/ 4/ 1,4,6: $18 gets 150%
5,7,9,10/ 5,11/ 4/ 1,4,6: $18 gets 75%
5,7,9,10/ 8,9,12/ 4/ 1,4,6: $12 gets 33.33%
5,7,9,10/ 6/ 9/ 1,4,6: $4 gets 33.33%
5,7,9,10/ 5,11/ 9/ 1,4,6: $4 gets 16.67%
5,7,9,10/ 8,9,12/ 9/ 1,4,6: $4 gets 8.83%
CONFIDENCE:
Quaddie
I’m just not that into tonight’s Quad. That attitude will change if we get the faves beaten in leg one but if we don’t it could get a little nasty. I’m a lot more confident these combinations will deliver the Quad than the Early Quad but much less confident of a decent collect.
1,3,5,6,8,9/ 2,9/ 8,10/ 3,4,8,9: $48 gets 50%
1,3,5,6,8,9/ 2,9/ 2,5/ 3,4,8,9: $24 gets 25%
1,3,5,6,8,9/ 11/ 8,10/ 3,4,8,9: $8 gets 16.67%
CONFIDENCE:
Summary
Win, place, each way
Race 1:
$20 Win on ZAREM (9) at $6 or better
$10 Each Way on FEAR NOT (10) & ALDEBARAN ALISSA at $8.50 or better
Race 2:
$10 Win on LOTTIE MOON at $12 or better & $10 Win on EXPLICIT CASTLE (11) at $6 or better
$5 Each Way on ROSARITO MISS (9) at $21 or better
Race 3:
$40 Place on C K SPUR (9) at $1.80 or better
Race 4:
$10 Win on LOPEZ (1) at $8.50 or better
$20 Win on STAR OF TIMPANY (4) at $4.50 or better
Race 5:
$20 Each Way on IDEALSOMEMAGIC at $16 or better
Race 6:
$20 Each Way ZOLIVER (9) at $8.50 or better
Race 7:
$30 Win SONNY WEAVER (10) at $4 or better
$10 Each Way TYPHOON STRIDE (5) at $7 or better
Race 8:
Bundle Bet JILLIBY LORENZO (8) and YORKSHIRE (9) at $2 or better
Race 9:
$20 Win ROCKASAKI (4) at $3 or better
Exotics
–
Early Quaddie
5,7,9,10/ 6/ 4/ 1,4,6: $18 gets 150%
5,7,9,10/ 5,11/ 4/ 1,4,6: $18 gets 75%
5,7,9,10/ 8,9,12/ 4/ 1,4,6: $12 gets 33.33%
5,7,9,10/ 6/ 9/ 1,4,6: $4 gets 33.33%
5,7,9,10/ 5,11/ 9/ 1,4,6: $4 gets 16.67%
5,7,9,10/ 8,9,12/ 9/ 1,4,6: $4 gets 8.83%
Quaddie
1,3,5,6,8,9/ 2,9/ 8,10/ 3,4,8,9: $48 gets 50%
1,3,5,6,8,9/ 2,9/ 2,5/ 3,4,8,9: $24 gets 25%
1,3,5,6,8,9/ 11/ 8,10/ 3,4,8,9: $8 gets 16.67%
