Goodform Gameplan: Melton Saturday February 5

As is so often the case by the time this Game Plan is penned, we’ve missed top fluc about YOUAREMY SUNSHINE (10) in this opening event. Tactically, the key to this contest is what happens early. HIMANAMEISJEFF (2) has been your red-figure favourite all week, and that indicates to me that bookies think he’ll lead. That may happen, but there’s enough obstacles in his way that the ‘best’ horse engaged here, YOUAREMY SUNSHINE (10) should get his chance to claim this race with class. And $3.20, while not amazing, remains pretty good. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Win YOUAREMY SUNSHINE (10) at $3 or better

We may have missed top price in the first event, but it’s nowhere in sight in this second contest. Amazingly, Hamilton Cup placegetter HIGHWAY TO HEAVEN (5) opened $5.50 here. I have marked him evens. If he leads it’s game over, and even if he parks he’s still the one to beat. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$50 Win HIGHWAY TO HEAVEN (6) at $2.20 or better

Despite the small field, this short course contest could well be my favourite punting race all night. Step one; STRUVE (3) is way too short. Yes, he trialled well recently, but how he can be red-figures on current race form I’m not qualified to tell you. Further moderating his claims is the likely map. In all likelihood, FRANCO JOLTO (1) leads, FYNN FROST (2) trails and they spend much of the event in single-file formation. That paves the path for a frantic final half where the lead and trail horses almost can’t be beaten. FYNN FROST (2) is clear top pick for mine at $6 with FRANCO JOLTO (1) his obvious threat at $5. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$60 Win FYNN FROST (2) at $4 or better 

$20 Win FRANCO JOLTO (1) at $4.50 or better 

Flexi Trifecta: 1,2/ 1,2,3/ Field: $40 gets 200%

I don’t normally do this; but on such a big night I’ll give two different menu options for punting tonight’s Mercury 80 final. Or, of course, you can play both. The smartest, cleanest way of attacking this race is backing clear class runner CASH N FLOW (9) straight out. He confirmed his dominance over these horses last weekend and the $1.90 is actually staggering overs. If you can’t bring yourself to back red-figure favourites however, we have an alternate plan. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$80 Win CASH N FLOW (9) at $1.70 or better 

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 1,8/ 1,2,3,4,5,8 ($40 gets 400%)

There are several ways to approach tonight’s Hunter Cup consolation but – hopefully – I have found the smartest. Three of my four top tips in this race should occupy the three leading positions along the pegs, and the other is arguably going better than them all. I grew up on four-horse Box Trifectas but rarely play them now. This is where we bring it back in vogue. And, just in case we miss third place, we’ll have an Exacta as well. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Box Exacta: 1,2,8,10 ($30 gets 250%) 

Flexi Box Trifecta: 1,2,8,10 ($30 gets 125%)

Unlike the Mercury 80 Final, I’m not catering for those shy of backing shorties in this 4YO Bonanza. When assessing the form for this contest I marked BONDI LOCKDOWN (6) $1.80 despite rating him a moral. On further reflection he should be $1.60 and we’re getting $1.85. I know I’m a broken record on this subject, but $1.85 v $1.60 equals 8% of value. That’s no different to finding one you’ve marked $11 that’s paying $101. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$80 Win BONDI LOCKDOWN (6) at $1.70 or better

If AMAZING DREAM (8) was still at her post-draw price of $5.50 I’d certainly advocate playing her straight out. In fact, at $3.90 she’s still somewhat tempting. Ultimately, however, with such large form/draw differentials between the top five hopes and the rest, targeting Tricks simply makes more sense, particularly as we’re taking on the favourite KING OF SWING (1). 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 1,2,4,6/ 1,2,4,6: $30 gets 250% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2,4/ 1,2,4,6,8/ 1,2,4,6,8: $30 gets 125%

I genuinely loathe writing this yet again, but sadly the best value about the best value runner in this Ladyship Cup is well and truly gone. ROGUE WAVE (4) is actually my top tip in tonight’s final Group 1 and she opened the wild price of $31! She’s now $10 but even that is serious overs. Have a decent EW wager on her, because you can, and a smaller EW crack on her stablemate MAAJIDA (7) who isn’t without a hope of crossing from gat seven. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$20 Each Way ROGUE WAVE (4) at $6 or better 

$10 Each Way MAAJIDA (7) at $6 or better

Look, AMORE VITA (6) is clearly a very serious horse going placed fast and there’s every chance she’s just far too good tonight. The fact is, JUST HOPE (5) is better than she’s been able to show in recent times and with her combination of brilliant gate speed and an extra recent run under her belt, I think this is her chance to show what she is made of. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$30 Win JUST HOPE (5) at $2.20 or better

The get-out stakes is a strange old race but I’d defy anybody telling me any rival is racing as well or better than BELITTLED (3) in this field. His racing pattern means we’ll always get a price about him and , to my eye, $4.20 is outstanding. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win BELITTLED (3) at $3.20 or better