Twenty-five may well be the magic number that separates a shot at SENTrack Inter Dominion immortality and the end of long-held dreams.
The last allotment of points will be collected at Geelong tomorrow in the ID22, with the end of Heat Night 3 to give us our final 12s who will battle for the pacing and trotting crowns at Melton on December 10
By the end of the night more than 1500 points will have been allocated to the remaining chances, equating to an average of 21.7 points per pacer and 24.1 points per trotter.
However, a dominant top end in the pacing ranks is likely to demand a far greater points haul to book a finals slot.
Using the tab.com.au’s fixed odds market as a guide, a simulation has Bundoran as the 12th horse into the final on 24 points, scraping in with a ninth-placed finish on Night 3 that would add a modest four points to the 20 already secured.
Petes Said So (tipped to finish sixth on Night 3), Wolf Stride (sixth) and I Cast No Shadow (fourth) have simulated to be equal on 23 points and a single point shy of the qualification.
While much will happen over the 2570-metre trips to make these simulations foolhardy, they do appear to tell us some certainties.
Emma Stewart trained trio Honolua Bay (32 points), Act Now (27) and Mach Dan (27) appear locked away, and Expensive Ego (26 points) and Better Eclipse (25 points) also appear across the line.
And it’s likely Narutac Prince (24 points) and Spirit Of St Louis (23 points) need only finish second last or better to ensure safe passage.
That’s seven of the 12 placings seemingly in safe keeping, with Beyond Delight (21 points) likely advancing with a top nine finish.
At the other extreme, not even a victory might be enough to secure a finals’ start for those on seven points or below, which is headed by Huli Nien, Jilliby Nitro and Crime Writer.
That leaves a middle band of 19 runners, stretching from Bundoran (20 points) to Jilliby Sylvester and To Fast To Serious (eight points) to battle for the final four placings, which will likely require a total of 25 points, though you may squeak in with 24.
Points are allocated as follows: 1st (16), 2nd (13), 3rd (11), 4th (9), 5th (8), 6th (7), 7th (6), 8th (5), 9th (4), 10th (3), 11th (2) and 12th (1).
It’s the same calculations for the trotters, where the simulation via an interpretation of tab.com.au fixed odds left a large gap between the haves and have nots.
The certainties? Providing they finish Just Believe, Bolt For Brilliance, Queen Elida, Musafa Metro and Nephew Of Sonoko appear to have enough points banked to advance, while Ofortuna (22 points) and Majestuoso (22 points) likely only need to finish 10th or better to make it through.
Always Ready, Hatchback and Sundons Courage will likely need to finish eighth or better to advance, which, on markets, all are predicted to do. Should all the above play out that would lock away 10 of the 12 finals spots.
And it is here where the rubber likely hits the road. The simulation had Parisian Artiste (27 points) skating through and Anywhere Hugo and Adelle finishing on 22 points, equal for 12th – the last qualifying spot. That means it’s all to play for, particularly for the eight horses between 17 and 13 points in Anywhere Hugo (17), Majestic Harry (16), Parisian Artiste (16), Brandlo Prince (16), Chinese Whisper (16), Robbie Royale (14), Zarem (14) and Adelle (13).
Those further down, beginning with Swiss Miss and Sleepee on 12, would likely need at least a top three placing to get into contention.
It’s enough to make your head spin, and the beauty of the series is that the points target is ever moving depending on the results of those around you.
So there are two ways to do Night 3 of Inter Dominion: dive head first into a pool full of numbers and backstroke through its beautiful complexity as it all plays out on TrotsVision.com.au.
Or sit back, relax and let it all wash over you as Australasia’s best pacers and trotters do the heavy lifting. Either way it will be drama not to be missed, so be sure to get trackside and take it all in or be there for kick off at 5.25pm on www.TrotsVision.com.au.