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Race 1

Confidence:
 

 

Tonight’s opening event will all boil down to the first 100. If MY BETTOR LADY (1) can do enough to lead (unlikely) or only get crossed by one runner – perhaps DELIGHTFUL MIA (7) – then she is clearly the one to best, particularly at Bendigo where the trailing role is worth its weight in gold. Amazingly, you could have gotten $6 earlier in the week but the $3.30 available now is still good enough.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$30 Win on My Bettor Lady (1) at $2.50 or better

Race 2

Confidence:
 

 

You’d probably trust an unfed Rottweiler more than you’d trust IMSETTOGO (9) these days but the fact remains that she is a very talented trotter and it’s tough to let her go around at $4.50 without something on. Much of this race will come down to how easily EMERALD STRIDE (5) can find the front and whether she gets pressured when she gets there. I hope she does. And that IMSETTOGO (9) is in the right mood.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$20 Win on Imsettogo (9) at $3 or better

Race 3

Confidence:
 

 

I’ve got absolutely no idea why JOEYS HANGOVER (4) is $8.50 here. One swallow doesn’t make a summer but the way this bloke won his qualifier for this heat-into-final series was monstrous and he’s been going well for a while. I marked him $4 and would take $5 so he represents serious overs. I even think there’s some chance that he finds the top.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$25 Each Way on Joeys Hangover (4) at $5 or better.

Race 4

Confidence:
 

 

I won’t be tweeting out my tipping excellence for finding RIDE HIGH (8) as the winner here as he’s one of the fastest and most gifted horses we’ve seen in several years. It remains a good betting race however as SIRLETIC (4) looks superbly placed to finish second or third at the very worst after probably leading-then-trailing the fave while the other podium position should be fought out between BETTOR BE THE BOMB (5) and IDEALSOMEMAGIC (7).

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 4/ 5,7: $40 gets 2000%

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 5,7/ 4: $20 gets 1000%

Race 5

Confidence:
 

 

SHINING ORO (2) hasn’t done anything yet this campaign to make you think she’s flying but with her gate speed and her talent she looks the leader and very probable winner to my eye and the $4 on offer is more than good enough tonight. That said you’d start feeling a little ill in transit if she gets absolutely hammered at the top end of affairs.

SUGGESTED BET:

$30 Win Shining Oro (2) at $3.50 or better

Race 6

Confidence:
 

 

I pretty much won’t hear of YOUAREMY SUNSHINE (7) being beaten here. He has been among the best 2yo’s and 3yo’s in the land and has spent much of his life sitting parked in good races. Here he has the intimidation to lead and from the top end he’ll just win. If STEAM PUNK (6) leads and trails he should run second and if not THE HERVEY BAY (8) is primed for that position so play two skinny tricks ignoring those that will settle out the back tonight.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 6,8/ 1,4,6,8 ($48 gets 800%)

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 1,4/ 1,4,6,8 ($12 gets 200%)

Race 7

Confidence:
 

 

Standing start squaregaiting affairs are not often a happy hunting ground for a punter like me that loves a certain degree of certainty but C K SPUR (1) has all the right credentials tonight. A former Kiwi he is very strong and begins well from the strands so look for him to assert his superiority here, particularly if he leads as I expect he will.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$40 Win C K Spur (1) at $1.90 or better.

Race 8

Confidence:
 

 

Look; I think REGULUS (6) is probably the testing material here and $4.50 is quite a decent price but everything about this race says stay away at all costs. We have to play it through the Quad but we don’t have to bet straight out and so we won’t.

SUGGESTED BETS: Nothing significant. (Confidence level that Regulus will win)

Race 9

Confidence:
 

 

BARBIE MATTGREGOR (4) won’t find her favourite spot behind the leader here but she lives for 1650m at Bendigo and if she pings forward then gets cover as is expected she’ll still be beautifully placed to tip and roll at the right time. And the $4.50 quote represents value so we will have a wager.

SUGGESTED BET:

$20 Win Barbie Mattgregor (4) at $2.80 or better

 

Early Quaddie

 

We’re having a fair dip at the Early Quad from an investment perspective but it’s worth noting as a punter that the money you spend should be balanced with what the level of risk is. I see these combos as very low risk as we should get the EQ one way or another and if we don’t have a dip we’re not going to make anything out of the bet type; especially with it really being a treble courtesy of Ride High’s presence in the final leg.

1,10/ 5,6,9/ 4,9/ 8: $60 gets 500%

1,10/ 5,6,9/ 2,6,7/ 8: $36 gets 200%

1,10/ 4,7/ 4,9/ 8: $8 gets 100%

5,9,11/ 5,6,9/ 4,9/ 8: $36 gets 200%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Quaddie

 

I don’t love the main Quad tonight. The last leg half sickens me and I’ve decided to play very skinny rather than very wide but both a very reasonable options. I’ve also played heavily through Shining Oro in the first leg which also unsettles me slightly as we’re backing her straight out as well.

2/ 7/ 1/ 6,9: $20 gets 1000%

2/ 7/ 2/ 6,9: $10 gets 500%

4,7,8,10/ 7/ 1/ 6,9: $40 gets 500%

4,7,8,10/ 7/ 2/ 6,9: $20 gets 250%

CONFIDENCE:

 

Summary

 

Win, place, each way

Race 1:
$30 Win on My Bettor Lady (1) at $2.50 or better
Race 2:
$20 Win on Imsettogo (9) at $3 or better
Race 3:
$25 Each Way on Joeys Hangover (4) at $5 or better.
Race 5:
$30 Win Shining Oro (2) at $3.50 or better
Race 7:
$40 Win C K Spur (1) at $1.90 or better.
Race 9:
$20 Win Barbie Mattgregor (4) at $2.80 or better

Exotics

Race 4:
Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 4/ 5,7: $40 gets 2000%
Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 5,7/ 4: $20 gets 1000%
Race 6:
Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 6,8/ 1,4,6,8 ($48 gets 800%)
Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 1,4/ 1,4,6,8 ($12 gets 200%)

Early Quaddie

1,10/ 5,6,9/ 4,9/ 8: $60 gets 500%
1,10/ 5,6,9/ 2,6,7/ 8: $36 gets 200%
1,10/ 4,7/ 4,9/ 8: $8 gets 100%
5,9,11/ 5,6,9/ 4,9/ 8: $36 gets 200%

Quaddie

2/ 7/ 1/ 6,9: $20 gets 1000%
2/ 7/ 2/ 6,9: $10 gets 500%
4,7,8,10/ 7/ 1/ 6,9: $40 gets 500%
4,7,8,10/ 7/ 2/ 6,9: $20 gets 250%