Race 1
Confidence:
The theme of tonight’s racing is that many very good horses are returning from breaks; and that means we will need to watch markets for much of the night. In this first event ROCKNROLL RONNIE (2) looks like crossing straight over to lead and copping very little pressure after that. As a result he may not need to be 100% screwed down to win. On face value the $1.95 for him look good enough for a bet but we’re going to take a different route by playing a few cheeky Tricks just to get our eye in hoping that peg-domination ensues.
SUGGESTED BETS
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,3,8/ 1,3,8: $30 gets 500%
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,3,8/ 6,9: $12 gets 200%
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,3,8/ 5,7,10: $8 gets 8.89%
Race 2
Confidence:
The money has all been for ROBBIE ROYALE (9) here but this race was tipped on its head with the scratching of Emerald Stride. The way I see it MONARO MARO (7) will almost certainly lead now and if she leads she should resist her co-favourite pretty comfortably for mine.
SUGGESTED BETS
$40 Win on Monaro Maro (7) at $2.20 or better
Race 3
Confidence:
When I was a young thoroughbred punter I would gag for an Exacta. Since turning to The Trots I rarely ever have one because they no longer make sense but this looks the right race to bring one back into play. Basically, I think STREITKID (4) will lead, BETTERNBETTER (1) will trail and MISS HARTLEY (2) will get a gun run just off the speed. I’d love to Box the Trick but in a race this even for talent that’s not wise so instead I’m hoping they can at least deliver the dominance required that two of the three lob tonight’s gold and silver-medal positions.
SUGGESTED BETS:
Box Exacta: 1,2 & 4: ($30 gets 500%)
Race 4
Confidence:
Tis juvenile race is an absolute pearler but also one where you really need to take sides if you’re keen place a wager. I’ve taken my side; and my side is LOCHINVAR CHIEF (6). I have mapped the Group 1 runner-up to get the front and if he does I think he’ll just win but he looks an exceptionally nice horse and IMHO trialled better than BEYOND DELIGHT (5) in preparation for his return to the races. There has been huge money for TUPPENCE (3) which must be respected but I’m going with my gut here and the exposed form.
SUGGESTED BET:
$30 Win on Lochinvar Chief (6) at $2 or better.
Race 5
Confidence:
Like the removal of Emerald Stride earlier the scratching of Sirletic has had a significant impact on this event but , if anything it’s only made life easier for the absolutely outstanding 4YO LOCHINVAR ART (12). Despite what could be a difficult trip he should just win and the Trick takes care of itself here with three key runners likely to battle out the minors among themselves. I’m gonna do something we couldn’t via the old Goodform platform and have both a Trick and a First Four in this fast class event.
SUGGESTED BETS:
Flexi Trifecta: 12/ 2,9,11/ 2,9,11: $24 gets 400%
Flexi First Four: 12/ 2,9,11/ 2,9,11/ 1,2,4,6,7,8,9,11. $36 gets 100%
Race 6
Confidence:
Amazing trotting race here but one which is somewhat confused by three Group 1 superstars all resuming from breaks. That being said of the genuine ‘monsters’ in play here the only ne capable of making his own fortune entirely is the great TORNADO VALLEY (9). If he goes under you’d hardly pot him but at the same time he’s the nation’s best trotter and he has weaponry the others don’t so he must be worth a bet.
SUGGESTED BETS:
$30 Win on Tornado Valley (9) at $2.20 or better
Race 7
Confidence:
Top fluc is gone and I know her task won’t be easy but GOODTIME HEAVEN (10) is a seriously high quality horse and a mare that loves mile racing so even factoring in her fresh status and the obstacles she faces I still believe she’s a more than reasonable bet at her current quote of $3.80.
SUGGESTED BETS:
$30 Win on Goodtime Heaven at $2.80 or better.
Race 8
Confidence:
We’ve missed the boat here unfortunately. When TORRID SAINT (2) opened at $15/$3.40 he was a great place-only or 1 x 5 proposition but now they’ve found him the race has become to tricky for me to get properly involved in.
SUGGESTED BETS: Nothing significant
Race 9
Confidence:
This is another great race to finish us off but with the tactical question marks here and no massive value available I’m happy to steer clear, enjoy and use for future reference.
SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant
Early Quaddie
Relative aggression is required to make this Early Quad work and we’ll breathe a lot easier if Rocknroll Ronnie wins the first leg. If that happens we should get a result; unless I’ve severely underrated the heavily backed Tuppence in leg number four.
2/ 7/ 1,2,4/ 6: $24 gets 800%
2/ 7/ 1,2,4/ 5: $12 gets 400%
2/ 9/ 1,2,4/ 6: $12 gets 400%
2/ 9/ 1,2,4/ 5: $6 gest 200%
1,3,8,9/ 7/ 1,2,4/ 6: $24 gets 200%
1,3,8,9/ 7/ 1,2,4/ 5: $12 gets 100%
CONFIDENCE:
Quaddie
I like tonight’s Quad. Originally I was going to stagger another combo without Lochinvar Art but I now believe he just wins and by skinnying up the final leg and playing heavily through Tornado Valley we give ourselves a real chance of making a decent profit.
12/ 9/ 4,10/ 2,3,4: $40 gets 666.67%
12/ 6,10/ 4,10/ 2,3,4: $36 gets 300%
12/ 9/ 9/ 2,3,4: $12 gets 400%
12/ 6,10/ 9/ 2,3,4: $12 gets 200%
CONFIDENCE:
Summary
Win, place, each way
Race 2:
$40 Win on Monaro Maro (7) at $2.20 or better
Race 4:
$30 Win on Lochinvar Chief (6) at $2 or better.
Race 6:
$30 Win on Tornado Valley (9) at $2.20 or better
Race 7:
$30 Win on Goodtime Heaven at $2.80 or better.
Exotics
Race 1:
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,3,8/ 1,3,8: $30 gets 500%
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,3,8/ 6,9: $12 gets 200%
Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,3,8/ 5,7,10: $8 gets 8.89%
Race 3:
Box Exacta: 1,2 & 4: ($30 gets 500%)
Race 5:
Flexi Trifecta: 12/ 2,9,11/ 2,9,11: $24 gets 400%
Flexi First Four: 12/ 2,9,11/ 2,9,11/ 1,2,4,6,7,8,9,11. $36 gets 100%
Early Quaddie
2/ 7/ 1,2,4/ 6: $24 gets 800%
2/ 7/ 1,2,4/ 5: $12 gets 400%
2/ 9/ 1,2,4/ 6: $12 gets 400%
2/ 9/ 1,2,4/ 5: $6 gest 200%
1,3,8,9/ 7/ 1,2,4/ 6: $24 gets 200%
1,3,8,9/ 7/ 1,2,4/ 5: $12 gets 100%
Quaddie
12/ 9/ 4,10/ 2,3,4: $40 gets 666.67%
12/ 6,10/ 4,10/ 2,3,4: $36 gets 300%
12/ 9/ 9/ 2,3,4: $12 gets 400%
12/ 6,10/ 9/ 2,3,4: $12 gets 200%
