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the-goodform-gameplan-mildura-friday-21st-august

The Goodform Gameplan: Mildura Friday 21st August

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Race 1

Confidence:
 

 

AMUSED (1) took ages to win a race but since doing so he hasn’t looked back and has been unlucky in recent times. From a beautiful draw if he gets the splits, after more than likely enjoying a nice run, he is a good value chance as is OUTA CONTROL (7) who draws directly behind AMUSED (7) and could go just as close. BOTTLE ROCK (3) hasn’t been amazingly impressive in two Australian starts over at Globe Derby but could possibly prove too good although I’m not 100% convinced.

SUGGESTED BET: AMUSED (1) and OUTA CONTROL (7) Each-Way

Race 2

Confidence:
 

 

CAMNAT (9) looks to have a found a good race to break through in at the eighth time of asking and won a trial on Sunday morning, she is first-up for Luke Watson. PRELIMINARY (4) is obviously good enough at his best, VIN DAN (1) never looked interested on his Sunraysia debut but is good enough on the form before that whilst it will be interesting to see if MISSBLISSFULLBEACH (8) can race more truly this week.

SUGGESTED BET: Boxed Trifecta 1, 4, 9

Race 3

Confidence:
 

 

SHELDON (3) and THE KNIGHT STAR (4) were the two favourites in the exact same race on their Mildura debut and instead fought out last place but both have since been back to the trials and gone well and look pretty tough to split although SHELDON (3) is more likely to be closer to the pace in the run which could be an advantage. ROCKING WROXTON (6) has the widest barrier but two of his last three runs he has worked home well.

SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant

Race 4

Confidence:
 

 

This is a race where nothing would surprise. ALFS ODYSSEY (1) and MISTA PUMBLECHOOK (2) are arguably the best two horses in the race but both have been well turned over recently as short priced favourites so I would’ve thought it’s pretty hard to back/tip them with any confidence. CELEBRITA (5) will be massive odds but at the end of last preparation raced against better horses and wasn’t beaten far by a decent winner in a recent trial, GOLDEN SCRIBE (6) will be very close with some luck from the widest barrier.

SUGGESTED BET: CELEBRITA (5) and GOLDEN SCRIBE (6) Each-Way

Race 5

Confidence:
 

 

ARTEGRA (9) is not suited by the second row draw but has won two of four starts since joining Reece Moore and has been impressive on both occasions. He is at his best when leading which is obviously a fair chance of not happening here but it’s hard to knock him off the back of his last win. CAESARS REIGN (11) had been knocking on the door and finally delivered, when I didn’t tip her, when winning her maiden easily last time, she could very well follow up. WOODY NIGHTSHADE (4) was behind ARTEGRA (9) last Friday night but has the barrier advantage this time.

SUGGESTED BET: ARTEGRA (9) and CAESARS REIGN (11) Each-Way

Race 6

Confidence:
 

 

This is arguably the most enthralling race we’ve had in the Sunraysia since regional racing commenced and there a few reasons for that. It’s the first time the three big guns of the region have all clashed together, MURRANJI TRACK (8), BERNIE WINKLE (9) and EGODAN (10). MURRANJI TRACK (8) has been beaten on countless occasions by the other pair but was a last start winner. And especially because BERNIE WINKLE (9) resumes after two and a half months off due to a setback, so will that leave him wanting or will he still be Bernie the Invincible? Either way this trio will arguably be first, second and third in what is a top race on paper.

SUGGESTED BET: Boxed Trifecta 8, 9, 10

Race 7

Confidence:
 

 

PUR DAN (11) often finds one or two too good but in two local attempts he has had to do a fair bit of work in one and then galloped in the other and looked something beaten last week when still fourth. HEAVEN ATTRACTS (9) was brilliant last week on debut for the Garraway stable and has a great course record. Three-year-old LOORRIM LAKE (8) is going for the four-timer and was too tough for PUR DAN (11) last time. TOPZAVSKI (7) and FRANKTANK (10) are both capable but more than likely would need things to go wrong for the three favourites to turn them over.

SUGGESTED BET: Boxed Trifecta 8, 9, 11

Race 8

Confidence:
 

 

SANDOVAL (11) has only one problem in this which is the outside second row barrier over the sprint. Just forget two starts ago and check out the run last week when he flashed home to be third when it looked like he should’ve been closer to Caulonia Terror and Heaven Attracts, who both would be long odds-on in this. Hands down the best of the night. RHYFLECTIVE (7) can place if the gaps come from the economical draw.

SUGGESTED BET: SANDOVAL (11) to Win and RHYFLECTIVE (7) to Place

Race 9

Confidence:
 

 

MISTER JIMARINGLE (7) was behind most of these at his last run against the three-year-old’s but worked home well against the older horses last Friday night and being the sole second row runner could be an advantage with plenty of speed off the front. COCO BEACH (6) has found her mojo and is in career best form whilst CARAGGIO ESCAPEE (2) can give a sight if holding the lead.

SUGGESTED BET: MISTER JIMARINGLE (7) Each-Way

 

Early Quaddie

 

Bottle Rock is an odds-on favourite in the opening leg but hasn’t been amazingly convincing in two Australian starts in Adelaide so Amused and Outa Control can go close from economical draws. There are three key chances in the second leg with Sheldon and The Knight Star the main pair in the third leg, but both were turned on their local debut, whilst anything could happen in the last leg. There are few ways to play depending on what takes your fancy with an interesting first and third leg.

1, 3, 6, 7 / 1, 4, 9 / 3, 4, 5 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 ($180 gets 100%, $50 gets 27.77%)

3 / 1, 4, 9 / 3, 4 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 ($30 gets 100%)

1, 7 / 1, 4, 9 / 3, 4 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 ($60 gets 100%)

CONFIDENCE:

 

Quaddie

 

There are four main chances in the first leg with Woody Nightshade having a pivotal front row draw, Glam Rock is good enough at his best whilst Artegra and Caesars Reign were both impressive recently but draw poorly. The second leg is the big clash between the three heavyweights of the Sunraysia and if you think Bernie Winkle can still prove too good first-up from a setback you can play him one out but if you think he could come back to them a tad it would be safe to throw in Murranji Track and Egodan obviously. Loorrim Lake, Heaven Attracts, and Pur Dan are the main three in the third leg whilst Sandoval on his last run should overcome the barrier to win the last leg.

4, 6, 9, 11 / 8, 9, 10 / 8, 9, 11 / 11 ($50 gets 138.88%)

4, 6, 9, 11 / 9 / 8, 9, 11 / 11 ($12 gets 100%)

CONFIDENCE:

 

Summary

 

Win, place, each way

Race 1:
$25 Each-Way on Amused (1) at $4 or better.
$25 Each-Way on Outa Control (7) at $11 or better.
Race 4:
$25 Each-Way on Celebrita (5) at $21 or better.
$25 Each-Way on Golden Scribe (6) at $11 or better.
Race 5:
$25 Each-Way on Artegra (9) at $5 or better.
$25 Each-Way on Caesars Reign (11) at $5 or better.
Race 8:
$25 Place on Rhyflective (7) at $2 or better.
$50 Win on Sandoval (11) at $2 or better.
Race 9:
$25 Each-Way on Mister Jimaringle (7) at $5 or better.

Exotics

Race 2:  Boxed Trifecta
1, 4, 9
Race 6: Boxed Trifecta
8, 9, 10
Race 7: Boxed Trifecta
8, 9, 11

Early Quaddie

1, 3, 6, 7 / 1, 4, 9 / 3, 4, 5 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 ($180 gets 100%)
3 / 1, 4, 9 / 3, 4 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 ($30 gets 100%)
1, 7 / 1, 4, 9 / 3, 4 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 ($60 gets 100%)

Quaddie

4, 6, 9, 11 / 8, 9, 10 / 8, 9, 11 / 11 ($50 gets 138.88%)
4, 6, 9, 11 / 9 / 8, 9, 11 / 11 ($12 gets 100%)

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