Goodform Gameplan: Melton Sat 26th September

He needs to run the gate as well as he possibly can but if he does then MAJESTIC CRUISER (2) should leads and if he leads he wins. I have spoken about this all week but he has an exceptional record (6 stars for 4 wins and 2 placings) when finding the front which is why I marked him $2 here. The money has started to emerge for him so bet now rather than waiting for an inferior price.

SUGGESTED BET:

$40 Win on Majestic Cruiser (2) at $2.50 or better.

The presence of former Kiwi PEMBROOK CHARLIE (6) combined with the fact he has not be installed favourite convolutes this race to an extraordinary degree. If the cash comes on raceday then he may still be a clear top pick but as things are we’re better off having a completely speculative 1x3 wager on CASTLE RETREAT (7). There’s a bit of Bopper Jet about that bloke as he needs a quiet run then can explode for a short distance which means we’ll need plenty of tempo but if the pace is strong he has the pace to swallow these up late.

SUGGESTED BET:

$5 Win & $15 Place on Castle Retreat (7) at $8.50 or better.

To be honest $1.80 actually isn’t a bad price about KEAYANG LIVANA (2) in her current mood but it’s just easier and more effective to back her through exotics than straight out tonight. In a race where peg-domination looks likely we’re going to angle our Trifectas a certain way but ultimately we’ll play relatively safe so as to hopefully secure a small profit we can funnel into Quads.

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,8/1,8,11: $20 gets 500%

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 11/ 1,8: $5 gets 500%

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 1,8,11/ 2,4,9,12: $25 gets 208.5%

Some races you ‘re so keen to punt on you can barely restrain yourself and others you’re just as keen to watch as an objective observer. This juvenile affair fits into the latter category. It’s an absolute belter of a contest but too much confusion surrounds too many runners and our top tip SOHO BOLLINGER (10) is too short to back at $2.30. I will play through Early Quads but that’s about all.

SUGGESTED BET:

Nothing significant

This race has MALCOMS RHYTHM (6) written all over it. He has enough gate speed to roll forward early, the class factor to intimidate his way to the front and he’s unbeaten in front. There are other factors also playing in his favour but the summary conclusion is that he’ll be winning with even luck in transit. In all honesty FOURBIGMEN (8) should run second from three poles but I also have respect for CULLENBURN (9) so will play my major trick with one of those two to run second then a back-up trick on the off-chance that they don’t.

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 8,9/ 1,5,8,9,11: $48 gets 600%

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 1,5/ 1,5,8,9: $12 gets 200%

Yet again the amazingly gifted LOCHINVAR ART (11) finds himself in a race which will be anything but a walk in the mark but he’s a machine at his best and looks the clear winner while ZENNART (7) and CRUZ BROMAC (10) are in the next bracket narrowly clear of OUT TO PLAY (12). I feel like TAM MAJOR (12) will need the run so we’re going to play very aggressive Tricks and hope that class prevails.

SUGGESTED BET:

11/ 7,10/ 7,10,12: $48 gets 1200%

11/ 12/ 7,10: $12 gets 600%

I’ve been very vocal all week that my market for this 3YO affair is very different from the TAB market and rather than beat around the bush I’m going to advise punters do exactly what I’ve done, which is to back 5 different horses for varying amount, avoiding the fave and second fave. I spent $100 but punters should bet to their banks or perhaps eliminate some of mine if you don’t think they can win.

SUGGESTED BET:

$40 Win on Pacifico Dream (13) at $4 or better

$20 Win on Sahara Sirocco (11) at $12 or better

$17 Win on Yianni (5) at $14 or better

$13 Win on Sonny Weaver (10) at $21 or better

$10 on Denis William (7) at $34 or better

With emergency URBADBOY (4) fave in this market it’s tough to assess how to play with any confidence. I REALLY want to back TERRYRAMA (9) if I can get $6 but I’m not sure that will happen. The other value runner based on early markets is REGULUS (1) who should get a perfect run in transit but, again, will he be value if the current fave comes out? I have no idea.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$30 Each Way on Terryrama (9) at $6 or better

$10 Each Way on Regulus (1) at $10 or better

The start will be all-important here but I have talked myself into the fact that RED HOT TOOTH (7) will lead and if she leads she wins. I actually marked her $2 so the $3-plus currently on offer is exotic. You could play this race a range of ways but when a top-tip you’re this confident about comes up at that price you have no reason to unnecessarily complicate matters.

SUGGESTED BET:

$50 Win Red Hot Tooth (9) at $2.50 or better

I’m happy to sit out here. I believe the fave SINGLE TREE ROAD (1) is unders as I fear she’ll get crossed early and nothing else I fancy has opened at an acceptably lush price.

SUGGESTED BET:

Nothing significant