There is a ray of hope for the Kiwi trainers taking on Just Believe in the NZ$200,000 Reharvest Rowe Cup at Alexandra Park on Friday night.
But dig a bit deeper and that hope starts to fade as the champion Australian trotter looks set to complete one of the greatest campaigns very by a visiting trotter on New Zealand tracks.
Just Believe has opened the $1.30 favourite for the 3200m standing start after three comprehensive victories in three major races.
The only time he has looked in any danger was when forced to sit parked outside Callmethebreeze in the TAB Trot slot race and the horses who finished closest to him that night are not in this Rowe Cup.
But as dominant as Just Believe has been all his wins here and in fact most in the last two years have been from behind the mobile and his standing start record of two wins from six attempts is well below his overall strike rate.
Hey, Just Believe even got beaten in a standing start South Australian Cup. No, I didn’t make it up, one of Australasia’s greatest ever trotters got beaten at Globe Derby.
But that was a long, long time ago when Just Believe was one of the pack, trained by
Mick Hughes before he joined Jess Tubbs and Greg Sugars and started his now two-year rampage.
No fault of Hughes here. Horses mature at different rates and he still trained Just Believe to finish third in the 2021 Inter Dominion Final at Menangle, which is no small deal.
Ironically that Final was won by Maori Law, driven by Sugars.
For Hughes, when Just Believe was maturing and still learning, he had five standing starts for just one win. There is that hope the Kiwis are holding on to.
But since joining Tubbs and Sugars he has only had the one stand and won the 2022 Kilmore Cup, over a 3150m distance close to Friday’s Rowe Cup trip.
A naturally relaxed horse with a faultless gait these days it is hard to imagine Just Believe galloping, especially as he will have plenty of room to move early with just six rivals.
“I think he will be fine, not much bothers him,” says Sugars of the standing start.
“He seems really well. I have driven him a couple of times in work this week and he is really good so I expect him to perform up to his recent levels.
“The standing start isn’t a concern.” Even if Just Believe was slow from the stand and ended up last this field looks certain to fall into single file very quickly and he would be able to work forward to sit parked, at worst, at the bell.
The last time he did that he simply outstayed Muscle Mountain over 2700m mobile in the National Trot so even if everything goes wrong and Muscle Mountain races to an uncontested lead, we all now know that Just Believe can sit parked outside him and beat him all things being equal.
We also know that on recent evidence none of their other rivals, even reigning Trotter of the Year Oscar Bonavena, are either good enough or racing well enough to run past them both.
So unless Just Believe’s loses a few percentage points of performance, or Muscle Mountain finds a few, the Rowe Cup should be heading back to Australia for the third time in 50 years.
