Goodform Gameplan: Melton Sat 19th June

A great deal of intuition is required when punting at Melton of late and that’s the case again tonight. My intuition tells me that COOL WATER PADDY (9) wasn’t anywhere near his best at his Victorian debut last weekend and will improve sharply this time around. He’s no certainty but smart players have been able to aces better than $3 about him over the last couple of days and even the $2.70 available now is tempting enough to play. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win COOL WATER PADDY (9) at $2.70 or better

All the money today has been for ILLAWONG STARDUST (10) and it now seems a distinct possibility that she’ll start fave despite being $6.50 24 hours ago. This opens up our options. At big prices I think we can have interest wagers on KYVALLEY CHIEF (12) and TEETREETOMMY (11) while IMSETTOGO (13) who looked one of tonight’s best lays at $2 could well become a straight-out bet if she gets to $3 or better. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$30 Win IMSETTOGO (13) at $3 or better 

$10 Each Way KYVALLEY CHIEF (12) at $15 or better 

$5 Each Way TEETREETOMMY (11) at $26 or better

I could be proven well wrong here but I’m flabbergasted that JIMMY THE IRISHMAN (1) is $1.65 tonight. Yes, he’s unbeaten on Aussie shores but he is stepping a very long way up in grade here and tackling a few rivals with form through infinitely better races. One option here is simply to lay the fave but if you want to back just one horse make it SANDAY (11). He faces some serious obstacles here from gate 10 over the short but if there’s any tempo early he can explode home right over the top. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Each Way SANDAY (11) at $5 or better

You can leave me right out of this race. Originally I was happy to play skinny Tricks with MISTER FORTUNIA (2) to win and LOTTIE MOON (1) to finish second but the former horse looked pretty plain in what was admittedly a trial of sorts at Shepparton last night so I’m exiting stage left. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that MISTER FORTUNIA (2) will win) 

Interesting betting race this; RUPERT OF LINCOLN (2) has halved in price since opening at $34 so he’s not as crazily priced as he was but is still worth a 1×3 investment at that quote. That being said I’m still pretty keen that SANTA CASA BEACH (3) will lead and win so I’m keen on constructing a couple of Tricks where he salutes as well. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$5 Win & $15 Place RUPERT OF LINCOLN (2) at $14 or better 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 2,6,10/ 2,6,8,10: $18 gets 200% 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 2,6,10/ 7,9,12,13: $12 gets 100%

Odd race here and Murphy’s Law may dictate that ITZAMAJOR SURPRISE (6) is unbeatable given I labelled here last week and she went poorly but I’m jumping off this time around. Ultimately there’s no doubting IOLANTA (10) has the best form here so she’s backable at $3 but I’m also keen to play MISS BLUE GLORY (1) from a draw which should see her perfectly placed throughout. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

$30 Win IOLANTA (10) at $3 or better 

$10 Each Way MISS BLUE GLORY (1) at $8.50 or better

First of all; congrats to those that backed BIG JACK HAMMER (10) on a 1×3 or 1×5 basis earlier in the week as the massive price that was on offer is now gone. Ultimately, this looks a Trifecta race and we’ll be playing two with COVER OF DARKNESS (5) to win in both. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 4,8,10,11/ 4,8,10,11: $24 gets 200% 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 4,8,10,11/ 1,9: $6 gets 75%

There’s been a huge move for DADNDAVE (5) here but I’m just targeting a Bundle Bet with TORRID SAINT (6) and CRIME WRITER (7) as both horses are absolutely ablaze and at least one of the two should overcome its very nasty draw. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Bundle Bet TORRID SAINT (6) & CRIME WRITER (7) at $2.80 or better  

There’s been a big move for QUEEN OF CRIME (3) here but I’m still siding with HOPELESS BEAUTY (4) as my best of the night. You can back her straight out at $2 if you so desire but I’ve constructed an exotic option instead. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 3,5,9/ 2,3,5,9,10,11: $30 gets 200%