A special runner-by-runner guide for the PETstock Ballarat Pacing Cup, with deep-dive statistics and Jason Bonnington's analysis of their chances in the $110,000 Group 1.
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1 SICARIO
RECORD: 68: 20-8-10
STAKES WON: $455,685
AUS GROUP 1s: 6: 0-0-3
AT TRACK: 0: 0-0-0
2500 METRES+: 10: 2-2-2
GATE WIN %: 11.74
TRAINER: Brent Lilley
DRIVER: Chris Alford (Aus G1s: 704: 115-93-78)
“Wonderfully genuine and super versatile customer who disappointed in last week’s Hamilton Cup but draws to perfection for his pattern of racing. He’s one for liberal exotic investors at least.”
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3 OUT TO PLAY
RECORD: 27: 12-5-4
STAKES WON: $236,937
AUS GROUP 1s: 4: 1-1-0
AT TRACK: 3: 2-1-0
2500 METRES+: 0: 0-0-0
GATE WIN %: 13.64
TRAINER: Clayton Tonkin
DRIVER: Kate Gath (Aus G1s: 221: 34-30-32)
“Scratch a line through his Vicbred Super Series final failure when suffering equine asthma and his form stacks up against all bar the fave. He should race handy and is a huge chance of landing minor money.”
4 BETTOR BE THE BOMB
RECORD: 92: 15-14-12
STAKES WON: $164,260
AUS GROUP 1s: 0: 0-0-0
AT TRACK: 11: 3-2-2
2500 METRES+: 2: 0-0-0
GATE WIN %: 10.98
TRAINER: Basil Dooley
DRIVER: Jack Laugher (Aus G1s: 2: 0-0-0)
“One of the nation’s most improved pacers and continues to improve every time he competes. He had zero fortune in the Bendigo Cup and is another that can place if he negotiates the sticky gate.”
5 SOMEWHERE SECRET
RECORD: 35: 14-1-6
STAKES WON: $127,547
AUS GROUP 1s: 1: 0-0-0
AT TRACK: 6: 5-0-0
2500 METRES+: 3: 0-0-1
GATE WIN %: 13.26
TRAINER: Emma Stewart
DRIVER: Jason Lee (Aus G1s: 98: 14-10-11)
“Seems to be going comparably to much more glorified stablemates but the draw has left him in a world of tactical pain. He’s not entirely incapable of finishing top-four but would need a heap of fortune.”
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6 LOCHINVAR ART
RECORD: 48: 26-14-5
STAKES WON: $1,020,756
AUS GROUP 1s: 13: 5-4-2
AT TRACK: 3: 0-1-2
2500 METRES+: 5: 2-1-0
GATE WIN %: 14.12
TRAINER: David Moran
DRIVER: David Moran (Aus G1s: 53: 8-8-2)
“It sounds somewhat silly given his comparably modest Grand Circuit CV, but this fellow may well be a proper all-time great. With Hurricane Harley out he’s the certain leader and winner; all hail the king.”
7 OUR UNCLE SAM
RECORD: 96: 22-16-17
STAKES WON: $652,026
AUS GROUP 1s: 13: 2-4-0
AT TRACK: 4: 0-0-0
2500 METRES+: 18: 2-6-2
GATE WIN %: 13.79
TRAINER: Chris Frisby
DRIVER: Zac Phillips (Aus G1s: 72: 10-6-9)
“Placegetter in two Hunter Cups and one Inter Dominion final but failures at his past couple haven’t engendered confidence. If he finds his best he can place but that seems unlikely from the draw.”
8 ALWAYS FAST
RECORD: 27: 9-6-2
STAKES WON: $115,310
AUS GROUP 1s: 2: 0-0-0
AT TRACK: 2: 0-1-1
2500 METRES+: 1: 0-0-0
GATE WIN %: 11.06
TRAINER: Emma Stewart
DRIVER: Jackie Barker (Aus G1s: 12: 0-1-0)
“Since conservative tactics were employed with this regally bred brother of Ride High he’s simply jumped out of the ground. With luck in closing stages he can steal second place.”
9 WOLF STRIDE
RECORD: 24: 12-2-6
STAKES WON: $201,820
AUS GROUP 1s: 1: 1-0-0
AT TRACK: 1: 0-0-1
2500 METRES+: 1: 1-0-0
GATE WIN %: 10.76
TRAINER: Anthony Butt, Sonya Smith
DRIVER: Anthony Butt (Aus G1s: 341: 62-46-41)
“Without doubt the X-factor of this year’s Ballarat Cup. At his only meeting with Lochinvar Art he ran him to 6.3m and has since won the Bendigo Cup in outstanding fashion. He is the rival most likely.”
10 KOWALSKI ANALYSIS
RECORD: 16: 5-5-3
STAKES WON: $41,400
AUS GROUP 1s: 1: 0-0-0
AT TRACK: 2: 0-1-1
2500 METRES+: 0: 0-0-0
GATE WIN %: 4.50
TRAINER: Matthew Craven
DRIVER: Sofia Arvidsson (Aus G1s: 3: 0-0-0)
“Late call-up courtesy of Hurricane Harley’s scratching that has excellent potential but arrives here 12 months before he can hope to be genuinely competitive at this level.”
11 JAMIESON STEELE
RECORD: 63: 9-16-3
STAKES WON: $105,320
AUS GROUP 1s: 0: 0-0-0
AT TRACK: 9: 1-0-1
2500 METRES+: 1: 0-0-0
GATE WIN %: 6.90
TRAINER: David Miles
DRIVER: David Miles (Aus G1s: 72: 5-8-4)
“From a better gate this progressive pacer may have been a top four hope but tough to see that happening from here. He is improving with age but looks a touch outclassed and should follow pegs.”
12 FORTY THIEVES
RECORD: 78 13-12-10
STAKES WON: $141,704
AUS GROUP 1s: 0: 0-0-0
AT TRACK: 5: 1-0-0
2500 METRES+: 4: 0-0-0
GATE WIN %: 7.14
TRAINER: Joe Pace
DRIVER: Darby McGuigan (Aus G1s: 9: 0-0-0)
“A natural frontrunner, this guy gave some cheek when leading in the Bendigo Cup. Sadly, his major weapon has been taken here by the second row draw, so it’s hard to see him figuring anywhere in finish.”
13 FOURBIGMEN
RECORD: 48: 15-4-12
STAKES WON: $232,100
AUS GROUP 1s: 7: 0-1-1
AT TRACK: 4: 1-0-0
2500 METRES+: 2: 1-1-0
GATE WIN %: 16.67
TRAINER: Emma Stewart
DRIVER: Greg Sugars (Aus G1s: 412: 42-44-47)
“He always had talent but since the Vicbred Super Series this bloke has blossomed into something pretty special. So well is the Hamilton Cup king going he can place even from gate 13 if he gets perfect luck.”