Goodform Gameplan: Bendigo Saturday October 2

As is so often the case the current prices available here are so similar to my own that backing wither of the runners I consider ‘winning chances’ – ABOUTTIME (10) & MASTER MOONLITE (11) – isn’t seductive enough. For the purposes of getting involved early I’m advocating a couple of small tricks but my confidence in making a decent kill is limited. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 10,11/ 10,11/ 1,2,3,4,5,7,9: $14 gets 100% 

Flexi Trifecta: 10,11/ 1,2,3,4,5,7,9/ 10,11: $14 gets 100%

The theme from race one continues here. From a completely disciplined perspective I’m happy to stay out but now ADELLE (7) has drifted to $12 I’m listening. In all honesty, now the drift has started I’m more likely to wait and hope that $14 or better becomes available before playing and probably staying out if that doesn’t materialise. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$10 Each Way ADELLE (7) at $14 or better

Welcome to the Game Plan equivalent of a broken record. On paper, the first heat of tonight’s Vic Derby is a match-race between BONDI LOCKDOWN (10) and AMERICAN DEALER (11) with neither at a price to back straight out. As a result, we’re playing similar Trifectas as we did in race one and simply hoping the remaining podium position is filled either by SOHO BOLLINGER (7) or something at value. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 10,11/ 10,11/ 7: $15 gets 750% 

Flexi Trifecta: 10,11/ 7/ 10,11: $5 gets 250% 

Flexi Trifecta: 10,11/ 10,11/ 2,4,6,8,12: $20 gets 200% 

Flexi Trifecta: 10,11/ 2,4,6,8,12/ 10,11: $10 gets 100%

For those that follow my Twitter feed, and for transparency, I am on YAMBUKIAN (9) to place in the second Derby heat tonight, but at a much better price than is currently available. With that now ruled out as an option, we’re playing one little Trick and, again, hoping for value in third position. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 5,9/ 5,6,7,9,10,12: $30 gets 300%

Heat punting is a tricky old game given qualification trumps success with so much more moolah on offer next weekend. Despite this, I’ve been sucked in by the concept of PATSBEACHSTORM (12) returning to his best tonight following a super trial at this track in preparation for this series. The reasoning for why I’m willing to punt him is three-fold. One, at $6 he’s definite value. Two, at his best, he’s easily the best horse engaged. And three, I reckon Sal Moran will give him a proper hit-out to convince himself he has him where he needs him for next weekend. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Win $30 Place PATSBEACHSTORM (12) at $5.50 or better

Some measure of argument may be made for every runner to fill a hole in the second leg of tonight’s Quad, but, finally, we can play for value here rather than seeking out exotic options. I am slightly sick for WOULD YOU MIND (2) and I concede that, but he is drawn to be close enough here and I’ve rated him on top when $8 is currently available. The knockout hope is IDEALSOMEMAGIC (5). This is not an overly fast front line and if the Candyman can launch him then trail an appropriate rival, he won’t be $31 in the run. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$15 Each Way WOULD YOU MIND (2) at $6 or better 

$5 Each Way IDEALSOMEMAGIC (5) at $16 or better

The key issue with releasing this Game Plan each-and-every week is that top-fluc for the horses I’m most keen to play are almost always a thing of the past. That’s the case in tonight’s feature event with BULLETPROOF BOY (1) who was more than twice his current $9 quote earlier in the week. Normally I would advise to let lost opportunities like this go through to the keeper but he’s still worth an Each Way tickle even now as he shouldn’t miss a place if he settles in the trail and may still fill the podium if he’s three the poles. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Each Way BULLETPROOF BOY (1) at $9 or better

Speed may be required here as MAJESTUOSO (8) has hovered around $2.20 for quite some time but I can’t see that price lasting. If you get yours-for-theirs or better, then a straight out bet looks the smartest play but I’ll also offer up a souple of little Tricks if you miss the price or simply want some supplementary investments. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win MAJESTUOSO (8) at $2 or better 

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 7,9/ 3,5,6,7,9: $32 gets 400% 

Flexi Trifecta: 7,9/ 8/ 3,5,6,7,9: $8 gets 100%

HERITAGE LADY (11) was $8 the drum earlier this week and that was tasty; she’s now $5 and potentially still warrants a place-only investment but if you didn’t get best price multiples probably now appeal slightly more. On face value, BEACH MUSIC (2) should simply lead and win and TOUGH TILLY (8) should run second or third at very worst. This theory is the basis of our combinations. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 8/ 9,11: $20 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 8/ 3,6,7,13: $20 gets 500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 2/ 9,11/ 8: $10 gets 500%

LADIES IN RED (5) is a freak and will destroy these with even 1% of fortune and JOANNA (11) has come back this prep in such stunning form she’s near certain to finish second. TREACHERY (1) obviously rates as the other class act at her best but it’s tough to know where she’s at and it may well work out better for us if something else beats her into the bronze medal role. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 11/ 1: $20 gets 2000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 1/ 11: $5 gets 500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 11/ 2,4,8,10,13: $25 gets 500%

Even though I have no strong read on this final event we’ve offered up a play of some kind on every race all night so why stop here. On pure form CONCEALMENT (5) should be fave so the $4.60 looks luxurious at present. I’m happy to have a small win bet on him and a ping at the stumps 1 x 3 on OZZIE BATTLER (11) at massive odds given this is the easiest race he’s seen in an eternity. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Win CONCELAMENT (5) at $3.20 or better 

$5 Win $15 Place OZZIE BATTLER (11) at $14 or better