Goodform Gameplan: Kilmore Saturday July 24

I can definitely envisage a scenario where life becomes pretty tough for SHEFFIELD SPARKY (11) tonight given Jodi Quinlan’s commitment to driving him cold and the likelihood of a muddling tempo through the early and middle stages. That being said, he’s so much better than these on natural talent that the $2 currently available has sucked me into playing. If you don’t like backing horses straight at that price, then play him one-out in major Early Quads or couple him with IM NO OUTLAW (5) who has been heavily supported and does look the natural leader. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win SHEFFIELD SPARKY (11) at $2 or better

I was half-filthy on LITTLE YANKEE (1) opening as short as he did but the drift has been consistent since then and we’re now closer to a quote that warrants an investment. Early doors there was great EW value available about ROBBIE ROYALE (9) when $16 but that’s been snapped up so we’ll stick with the polemarker straight out or, as mentioned already in this GP, simply play him one-out in major Early Quad combos. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win LITTLE YANKEE (1) at $3.20 or better

Despite the relentless advocacy for ignoring drifts that I’ve heard from pro punters on SEN-Track over the last 18 months, there are times when it worries you. Tonight, mercurial talent ALEPPO MURPHY (10) resumes for original trainer Michelle Eastman, and he’s already blown out from $4.20 to $6. On the flip side, we have seen him trial well and when 15% of value becomes available as is currently the case, I simply must play. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$20 Each Way ALEPPO MURPHY (10) at $5 or better

There have been some serious fluctuations in this 80-94-rater, so attitudes have changed as the week has progressed. I have neither SOFALA (1) nor BOY FROM BONDI (5) on top on this race, but both can win and at $9.50 and $7 respectively they are the best betting options. If you’re in an aggressive mood you can Bundle Bet the pair at $4.13 right now, but if not, you can just back them both Each Way knowing that you’ll almost get your money back if wither finishes top two and you’ll be well ahead if one of them salutes. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$10 Each Way SOFALA (1) at $8.50 or better 

$10 Each Way BOY FROM BONDI (5) at $5.50 or better

We’ve already discussed the value – or lack thereof – in reacting to market stability, and that quandary raises it’s head once more here. I genuinely believe SANDAY (5) is a lock here. He’s an 80% chance of leading at least and can’t be beaten if he does. Even if he parks, he can still salute so I see him as being a genuine odds-on hope rather than the $2.15 we’re currently receiving. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win SANDAY (5) at $1.90 or better  

When my top tip here DENIS WILLIAM (6) was $12 that felt like the right time to strike. He has now shortened into something like his right price and there’s precious little fat anywhere else, bar for perhaps SOHO BOLLINGER (7) so we’re using this Winter Championship Final as a Quad pillar only. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that DENIS WILLIAM (6), SOHO BOLLINGER (7) or TANGO TARA (13) will win) 

MALCOLMS RHYTHM (2) certainly represented value at $6.50 earlier this week before CODE BAILEY came out but, in all honesty, I’m all the way with TORRID SAINT (1). If he leads, he wins, and if he trails the right horse he wins. As is the case with SANDAY earlier in the night I’m slightly shocked he’s not shorter than $2.15, but I’ll take it. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win TORRID SAINT (1) at $2 or better

I must admit I was waiting to watch market moves with former Kiwi LEER (3) at his first Aussie start and rather than firming he’s actually drifted a dollar. I can’t guarantee she’s up to a horse like PLATINUM SPARKLE (9) but she obviously has talent and comes to a very strong stable so I would advocate for having something EW at $7 given she may shorten dramatically approaching start time. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$15 Each Way LEER (3) at $6 or better

String race this but I just can’t find the value so I’m staying out. If you choose otherwise, it might be worth backing RULES DON’T APPLY (3). He has issue but he’s laden with talent and if he blows them away you won’t get odds like you’ll get tonight about him for a fair while. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant. (Confidence that one of KYVALLEY CHIEF (9), PROSTHESIS (2) or RULES DON’T APPLY (3) will win)

There’s a part of me that just wants to back SHES A HOVERCRAFT (8) at $4 here with the cavalcade of support for NIKKI LOUISE (1) but it’s probably easier to look at this as what my late brother Aidy used to call ‘one of those races’ where lead and trail should dominate and go down the exotic path instead. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 1,8/ 1,8/ 3,6,7 ($30 gets 500%)

With two scratching we now have a four horse race to contend with so I’m exiting stage left. HIGH PROFILE (1) should win but I can’t offer a great deal more than that. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that HIGH PROFILE (1) will win)

I did Tweet about the overs available regarding SUNNY SPIDER (10) earlier this week and the big punters must agree as he’s been backed from $21 to $4. If you missed that opportunity, I haven’t got another for you here I’m sad to report. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence that SUN OF SONOKO (7) will win)