Race 1
Confidence:
As often happens most of the value has been eroded by today but the key to this race is the likelihood of electric early pace. If you read it a different way then there are other options or you but the way I see things panning out her the ‘class’ runners FALCON STRIDE (9) and JOE NIEN (10) should get their chance and you can still get better than yours-for-theirs about the Bundle Bet so a small bet remains in order.
SUGGESTED BET:
Bundle Bet: FALCON STRIDE (9) & JOE NIEN (10) to Win ($2.13 at time of writing but you could have gotten MUCH better)
Race 2
Confidence:
This is a super race from a spectating perspective but not so much from a punting perspective. KEAYANG LIVANA (9) is clearly the one to beat but there’s no value about her. There is, however, good value about ALDEBARAN CRESCENT (10) who should be half her current quote of $13. She is the play.
SUGGESTED BET:
1 x 3 on ALDEBARAN CRESCENT (10) at $10 or better
Race 3
Confidence:
I am amazed by the prices and market moves here. WATTS UP MAJESTIC (4) was a dominant Breeders Crown champ and has the speed to lead while ALDEBARAN URSULA (8) is the fastest 2YO Trotting filly of all time – and the second fastest as well. I have them as the two faves here and the market doesn’t so therein lay an opportunity.
SUGGESTED BET:
Bundle Bet: WATTS UP MAJESTIC (4) & ALDEBARAN URSULA (8) (Currently $2.81; I would have this combo odds upon)
Race 4
Confidence:
The fact that I can’t predict the map in this 1st heat of the GRM Champs largely negates my desire to play. RUSSLEY RUSH (1) should win and may even lead throughout but there are too many question marks and no specific roughie I’m keen to play as a result of that unpredictability.
SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant (Confidence that Russley Rush (1) will win)
Race 5
Confidence:
The scratching of Bettor Be Sorry has turned this race on its head and even though it seems the biggest beneficiary is IM ANOTHERMASTERPIECE (7) I’ve warmed massively to BULLYS DELIGHT (1). He was an all-time Black Booker first up from a break and I can clearly envisage a scenario where’s he’s trailing the speed and rushes by them late.
SUGGESTED BET:
Small but committed WIN wager on BULLYS DELIGHT (1) at $5 or better
Race 6
Confidence:
It certainly worries me that one key Aiken runner has been scratched and SIRLETIC (4) has been unwanted despite appearing overs but the fact remains that he can cross these in a bound and I’m not sure he’ll cop any meaningful pressure if/once he does. Should the race contain more pressure than predicted then last start Black Booker SOMEBEACHSHADOW (5) clearly looks the value runner.
SUGGESTED BETS:
Decent go on SIRLETIC (4) at $2.80 or better
Lesser go on SOMEBEACHSHADOW (5) at $8 or better
Race 7
Confidence:
If you were smart enough to get the opening price of $2 about MAJESTUOSO (10) then you’re laughing because he looks as gilt-edged as you can get in a stand-start off 20m but if not the $1.65 is still actually OK. It’s tough to ever take a price that short however so a little Trick playing wider for third than most looks the most attractive option.
SUGGESTED BET:
Small speculative Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 7,8/ 3,4,5,6,7,8,9
Race 8
Confidence:
I was waiting for a proper market move in this nightmare race and if one comes today then respect it but at time of writing I can’t get enthused at all. That being said MR BOHANNON (4) has won 3 from 4 in Oz, beat Sonny Weaver two starts back and does seem disrespected at $8. Actually that’s a ridic price. I’ve talked myself into an Each Way play.
SUGGESTED BET:
Something Each Way MR BOHANNON (4) at $5 or better
Race 9
Confidence:
She’s only three (really four) and taking on older horses from a tough gate but if KEAYANG JACKIE (9) gets rolled here I’ll need to reassess everything I think I know about racing and life. The $1.40 she’s currently paying is actually value to my eye but let’s play a fiddly exotic rather than having our life on her at such a short quote.
SUGGESTED BET:
Fiddly Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 7,8/ 2,3,4,5,7,8
Race 10
Confidence:
The final race At Melton is often the toughest and this is a very tricky affair. That being said I cannot ignore SCRUFFY DOOLAN (5) at $6.50. He’s going way too well for that.
SUGGESTED BET:
Something speculative straight out on SCRUFFY DOOLAN (5) at $5 or better
Early Quaddie
Let’s be very clear; we have little to no chance of snagging this EARLY Quad so don’t spend the $27 outlined below unless you’re flying on the punt from earlier in the day/week. The alternative to these crazily aggressive plays is just going wide in all the first three legs but you’re still left with the Russley Rush conundrum to bring you home. If you choose the wide option go 1,2,4,6,7,9,10/ 7,9,10,11/ 2,3,4,6,8,9/ 1 which will cost you $60 for 50% and lay off in the last leg if approx divs allow.
9,10/ 7,9,10,11/ 4,8/ 1: $16 gets 100%
9,10/ 7,9,10,11/ 2,3,6,7/ 1: $8 gets 25%
9,10/ 6,8,12/ 4,8/ 1: $3 gets 25%
1,2,4,6,7/ 7,9,10,11/ 4,8/ 1: $10 gets 25%
CONFIDENCE:
Quaddie
I’m slightly more enamoured with the major Quad than the early version but not my much. Essentially, we are looking to get Im Anothermasterpiece rolled in the first leg and if that happens things get interesting. Even if we navigate sour way to the final leg however, nothing is guaranteed as it’s one of the most confusing, difficult contests of all time.
1,3,7/ 4/ 10/ 2,4,8: $18 gets 200%
1,3,7/ 2,5/ 10/ 2,4,8: $18 gets 100%
1,3,7/ 3,6,7,8/ 10/ 2,4,8: $18 gets 50%
CONFIDENCE:
Summary
Win, place, each way
Race 1:
Bundle Bet: FALCON STRIDE (9) & JOE NIEN (10) to Win ($2.13 at time of writing but you could have gotten MUCH better)
Race 2:
1 x 3 on ALDEBARAN CRESCENT (10) at $10 or better
Race 3:
WATTS UP MAJESTIC (4) & ALDEBARAN URSULA (8) (Currently $2.81; I would have this combo odds upon)
Race 5:
Small but committed WIN wager on BULLYS DELIGHT (1) at $5 or better
Race 6:
Decent go on SIRLETIC (4) at $2.80 or better
Lesser go on SOMEBEACHSHADOW (5) at $8 or better
Race 8:
Something Each Way MR BOHANNON (4) at $5 or better
Race 10:
Something speculative straight out on SCRUFFY DOOLAN (5) at $5 or better
Exotics
Race 7:
Small speculative Flexi Trifecta: 10/ 7,8/ 3,4,5,6,7,8,9
Race 9:
Fiddly Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 7,8/ 2,3,4,5,7,8
Early Quaddie
9,10/ 7,9,10,11/ 4,8/ 1: $16 gets 100%
9,10/ 7,9,10,11/ 2,3,6,7/ 1: $8 gets 25%
9,10/ 6,8,12/ 4,8/ 1: $3 gets 25%
1,2,4,6,7/ 7,9,10,11/ 4,8/ 1: $10 gets 25%
Quaddie
1,3,7/ 4/ 10/ 2,4,8: $18 gets 200%
1,3,7/ 2,5/ 10/ 2,4,8: $18 gets 100%
1,3,7/ 3,6,7,8/ 10/ 2,4,8: $18 gets 50%
