Goodform Gameplan: Melton Sat 12th June

With COOL WATER PADDY (1) opening so short this isn’t an overly appealing race for punting but we’re going to play a little regardless. I’m pretty certain the popular elect will salute and HIGHWAY TO HEAVEN (4) has been so genuine doing work at metro level he should run second or third. Small bet only but worth a spec investment. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 4/ 2,7,8,10,13: $10 gets 200% 

Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 2,7,8,10,13/ 4: $10 gets 200%

Post social-media spruiking ITZAMAJOR SURPRISE (10) has shortened wildly so now things are a little awkward. If you got anything near the $7.50 offered then you are in a great place to either ride the lightning as I will or lay/lay off if that’s your style. At time of writing she’s $3.60. You wouldn’t want much shorter from a second row draw but if you can still get that sort of quote I remain confident. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win ITZAMAJORSURPRISE (10) at $3.40 or better

The only runner in this 1MW trot that represents value compared to my market is BEEFOUR BACARDI (7) and being first-up from a break you’d nearly want to see support before you go involved. Aside from that I’d need TRAVEL BUG (2) to drift somewhat before I was tempted so, at this stage, I’m staying out. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that TRAVEL BUG (2) will win)

Non-elite juvenile races are always fraught with danger but I’m very confident that either UHURA (1) or ELEGANT (4) will win and I’m confident enough they’ll both occupy the dais I’m happy to play. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 1,4/ 1,4/ 2,5,6: $24 gets 400% 

Flexi Trifecta: 1,4/ 2,5,6/ 1,4: $6 gets 100%

Ok; you’re going to have to stick with me here as we’re having a few different plays. First; if you believe that SANTA CASA BEACH (1) will lead and CRIME WRITER (8) will trail then you have one hell of a betting race on your hands. I am not amazingly confident of that scenario but I’m confident enough we’re going to play one skinny Trick based on that map. We are also going to back my top tip CRIME WRITER (8) as he seems silly odds if that map does materialise and we’re also having a small spec-bet on one of my old faves LOVE INA CHEVY (10) who is overs and comes right into play if the map mentioned above doesn’t play out. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 1,8/ 1,8/ 6,9,10: $20 gets 333.33% 

$30 Win CRIME WRITER (8) at $3 or better 

$5 Win & $15 Place LOVE INA CHEVY (10) at $16 or better

Silly as it may seem I’m going to formulate a sneaky little trick here and hope for value via third place but the overs in the race is JEMSOMS PET (6). It’s hard to work out how he wins from the draw, I acknowledge that, but he’s simply too good to be going around at $17. 

SUGGESTED BETS: 

Flexi Trifecta: 5,11/ 5,6,7,11/ 4,5,6,7,8,9,11: $30 gets 100% 

$5 Win & $15 Place JEMSOMS PET (6) at $12 or better

Sadly, we’ve missed the $51 about IDEALSOMEMAGIC (5) but there is a pretty serious temptations to play for map-value here as the ‘class’ horses are all in very tough spots from their draws. If IDEALSOMEMAGIC (5) crosses to the poles as hoped and hands up to BONCEL BENJAMIN (6) then the second row runners play ducks-and-drakes for even 600m then those two horses are going to be exceptionally well placed. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$15 Each Way on IDEALSOMEMAGIC (5) at $16 or better & BONCEL BENJAMIN (7) at $8.50 or better

Something in my soul tells me that SWISS MISS (3) is a bet here at double-figure odds but my obstinacy precludes me from playing her as she’s not that dissimilar in markets now to what I marked her. That being, said if you have her at $31 you’ve done very well. The only two things I’ll add about this race are that it screams ‘upset’ and that ROYAL CHARLOTTE (2) is an absolute lay at single figure odds. She is one of few I am confident won’t win and she’s way too short in early markets.  

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that this race will yield a proper upset result) 

I found this to be the most confusing race all night and want very little to do with it. The reports around LAMANDIER (5) are strong and he should lead/win but I’m not taking odds-on to find out. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Nothing significant (Confidence rating that LAMANDIER (5) will win) 

The price about DOT THE EYE (4) here - $2.15 – is nasty but he’s my Best Bet of the evening and we’ve stayed out of the last couple so why not? There’s every indication that he’ll only shorten further but I’d still advise waiting until market percentages contract late and hope to get him at closer to $2.50. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$40 Win DOT THE EYE (4) at $2.20 or better