Race 1
Confidence:
We have a wonderful programme tonight but this opening contest isn’t the most appealing race from a wagering perspective. If you want an interest bet then BOPPER JET (10) looks the way to go but the $2.80 they’re offering isn’t wildly generous.
SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant (Confidence level that Bopper Jet will win)
Race 2
Confidence:
This race will be run one of two ways; either several of the fast beginners off the front row will fly the start and the pressure will be on throughout or most of the early pace will cede to the concept that PIRATE BAY (1) just leads and they’ll restrain soon after the start. I’m hoping for the former scenario because in that world TERRYRAMA (2) is the horse to beat and we’re getting an attractive price.
SUGGESTED BET: $20 Each Way TERRYRAMA (2) at $5.50 or better
Race 3
Confidence:
It’s quite amazing how many serious horses are paying a big price in this amazingly strong 79 to 89 affair but with BETTOR BE SORRY (3) still looking the benchmark it’s tough to know how exactly we should play. I’ve settled on playing tricks with the fave to run first or second and the other podium positions to be filled by the next best handful of runners.
SUGGESTED BET:
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,2,6,8,10/1,2,6,8,10: $40 gets 200%
Flexi Trifecta: 1,2,6,8,10/ 3/ 1,2,6,8,10: $20 gets 100%
Race 4
Confidence:
You could have gotten $2.50 about LETSROCKLETSROLL (9) earlier in the week and history will dictate – IMO – that price will look insane going forward. Based on his two runs for team Aiken this bloke could be an open class player at some stage fairly soon and rather than get caught up in trying to make money via exotics I’m just going to back him straight out tonight.
SUGGESTED BET: $50 Win LETSROCKLETSROLL (9) at $2 or better
Race 5
Confidence:
If GOODTIME HEAVEN (11) was $3.50 or better I’d consider backing her straight out but instead tonight’s first feature looks a good opportunity to just have a fun little Trifecta and hope for a split.
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi Trifecta: 7,10,11/ 7,8,10,11/ 6,7,8,9,10,11: $36 gets 100%
Race 6
Confidence:
If he’s even close to right RIDE HIGH (11) will destroy this Smoken Up field, particularly now he only has eight horses to run past. I will kick myself if CRUZ (2) doesn’t run second or third as I don’t rate him that highly but the way this race will be run I can’t see him missing a drum so we’re basing our wagers around that being the case.
SUGGESTED BETS:
Flexi Trifecta: 11/ 2/ 8: $20 gets 2000%
Flexi Trifecta: 11/ 2/ 1,5: $10 gets 1000%
Flexi Trifecta: 11/ 1,5,8/ 2: $20 gets 666.67%
Race 7
Confidence:
On a night when it’s pretty tough to find straight out wagers this might be our chance. Plainly put, if SAMMY SHOWDOWN (4) finds the front here without having to go berserk early I reckon he’s a $2 shot at best so the $3.80 is super value as I see that being the way this plays out.
SUGGESTED BET: $30 Win SAMMY SHOWDOWN (4) at $3.20 or better
Race 8
Confidence:
I’m relying solely on my preferred Map here and in basic terms if that Map doesn’t play out we’re in all sorts. In my Atlas MAAJIDA (3) leads, TECHYS ANGEL (1) trails and peg-domination ensues.
SUGGESTED BETS:
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,8/ 1,8: $20 gets 1000%
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,8/ 2,10,11: $30 gets 500%
Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 3/ 8: $10 gets 1000%
Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 3/ 2,10,11: $10 gets 333.33%
Race 9
Confidence:
Essentially I believe that REACTOR NOW (4) should monster these and that peg-domination looks overwhelmingly likely but if CULLENBURN (2) kicks hard it may open up an opportunity for SOMEBEACHSHADOW (1) to dive-bomb these at odds so we’re covering off both options.
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 1,2/ 1,2,8: $40 gets 1000%
$20 Each Way SOMEBEACHSHADOW (1) at $8.50 or better
Race 10
Confidence:
I could be wrong but something tells me JUST BELIEVE (12) is potentially a little bit special and can overcome his awful draw tonight. He’s no moral but at around the $4 mark he’s well worth a wager.
SUGGESTED BET: $30 Win JUST BELIEVE (12) at $3.50 or better
Race 11
Confidence:
He’s become the bane of my existence but if MAJESTIC CRUISER (1) lobs behind the leader here he should simply win.
SUGGESTED BET: $30 Win MAJESTIC CRUISER (1) at $2.30 or better
Early Quaddie
This isn’t my traditional type of Quad but the benefit is that there could be a chance to lay off in the final leg if we jag some early value.
1,2,3,4,10/ 1,2,5,6,8/ 3/ 9: $25 gets 100%
1,2,3,4,10/ 1,2,5,6,8/ 1,8/ 9: $25 gets 50%
1,2,3,4,10/ 1,2,5,6,8/ 2,6,10/ 9: $20 gets 26.67%
CONFIDENCE:
Quaddie
I’ve been a little pedantic here and potentially weighed things too heavily in favour of Sammy Showdown winning but I still like these combos and would advise punters to play.
7,10,11/ 11/ 4/ 1,3: $30 gets 500%
7,10,11/ 11/ 4/ 8: $9 gets 300%
7,10,11/ 11/ 8,10/ 1,3: $36 gets 300%
8/ 11/ 4/ 1,3: $5 gets 250%
CONFIDENCE:
Summary
Win, place, each way
Race 2:
$20 Each Way TERRYRAMA (2) at $5.50 or better
Race 4:
$50 Win LETSROCKLETSROLL (9) at $2 or better
Race 7:
$30 Win SAMMY SHOWDOWN (4) at $3.20 or better
Race 9:
$20 Each Way SOMEBEACHSHADOW (1) at $8.50 or better
Race 10:
$30 Win JUST BELIEVE (12) at $3.50 or better
Race 11:
$30 Win MAJESTIC CRUISER (1) at $2.30 or better
Exotics
Race 3:
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,2,6,8,10/1,2,6,8,10: $40 gets 200%
Flexi Trifecta: 1,2,6,8,10/ 3/ 1,2,6,8,10: $20 gets 100%
Race 5:
Flexi Trifecta: 7,10,11/ 7,8,10,11/ 6,7,8,9,10,11: $36 gets 100%
Race 6:
Flexi Trifecta: 11/ 2/ 8: $20 gets 2000%
Flexi Trifecta: 11/ 2/ 1,5: $10 gets 1000%
Flexi Trifecta: 11/ 1,5,8/ 2: $20 gets 666.67%
Race 8:
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,8/ 1,8: $20 gets 1000%
Flexi Trifecta: 3/ 1,8/ 2,10,11: $30 gets 500%
Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 3/ 8: $10 gets 1000%
Flexi Trifecta: 1/ 3/ 2,10,11: $10 gets 333.33%
Race 9:
Flexi Trifecta: 4/ 1,2/ 1,2,8: $40 gets 1000%
Early Quaddie
1,2,3,4,10/ 1,2,5,6,8/ 3/ 9: $25 gets 100%
1,2,3,4,10/ 1,2,5,6,8/ 1,8/ 9: $25 gets 50%
1,2,3,4,10/ 1,2,5,6,8/ 2,6,10/ 9: $20 gets 26.67%
Quaddie
7,10,11/ 11/ 4/ 1,3: $30 gets 500%
7,10,11/ 11/ 4/ 8: $9 gets 300%
7,10,11/ 11/ 8,10/ 1,3: $36 gets 300%
8/ 11/ 4/ 1,3: $5 gets 250%
