Race 1
Confidence:
The $2.70 offered earlier this week was obviously more attractive but I'm painfully confident HONOLUA BAY (11) will take out the opening event so I'm instructing you take the best price you can get right now. If MACH DAN (2) lobs an easier lead than expected and cops no pressure we may be in bother, but if there's early heat then the second line draw may suit our bloke down to the ground.
Suggested Bet:
$40 Win Honolua Bay (11) at $2.20 or better
Race 2
Confidence:
Again, sadly, we're looking at a slightly reduced price compared to top fluc about KYVALLEY HOTSPUR (12) but the price we're getting is still good enough. The stats say that this multiple Derby-winner has only won in front, but on this occasion the stats are shallow. He's the best horse, with best record and he should be shorter than he is.
Suggested Bet:
$25 Each Way Kyvalley Hotspur (12) at $6 or better
Race 3
Confidence:
After visiting Emma Stewart & Clayton Tonkin's supreme stables for Burning Questions this week, I'm sold that JUST A BIT TOUCHY (13) will be way too good. She had excuses for her bad etiquette last start and based on her last two efforts, if she trots, she wins.
Suggested Bet:
$30 Win Just A Bit Touchy (13) at $2.40 or better
Race 4
Confidence:
My map hers says that PLYMOUTH CHUBB (6) will blaze across and find the front with COURAGE STRIDE (1) trailing him in transit. Should that prove accurate, the fave just wins and the polemarker probably runs second. Just to cover our bases however, I've offered up a hedge where COURAGE STRIDE (1) runs third.
Suggested Bet:
Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 1/ 2,4,8,11: $24 gets 600%
Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2,4,11/ 1: $6 gets 200%
Race 5
Confidence:
This a weird situation for me, as on talent I'm all but certain CATCH A WAVE (13) will win. The only scenario I conceived of doubting him in pre-draw is HEZA SON OF AGUN (1) drawing one and that is what has happened. Crucially, the polemarker we're backing is fast enough to choose who he hands to and from leader's back he should be shorter than his $5 quote.
Suggested Bet:
$10 Win & $30 Place Heza Son Of Agun at $5 or better
Race 6
Confidence:
Much of me thinks the $2 offered up about ACT NOW (5) here is generous, given he'll likely find the front one way or another and even if that requires abject aggression, he'll dictate terms once he gets there. Nevertheless, my ultimate instincts. rightly or wrongly, lead me to NARUTAC PRINCE (9). I'd be somewhat surprised if this bloke wins, but there's no question he's flying and $6 the drum about him appeals slightly more than yours-for-theirs the win about the fave.
Suggested Bet:
$20 Place Narutac Prince (9) at $5 the drum or better
Race 7
Confidence:
Every way I look at tonight's headline race I see them breaking the timepiece. BEACH MUSIC (2) simply has no option but to bolt should she find the front as expected and if they break 53 for the middle trip, I can visualise JOANNA (13) ripping late with three-wide cover and both are at a price.
Suggested Bet:
$10 Win & $20 Place Joanna (13) at $10 or better
Race 8
Confidence:
It hurts me to question SOUNDS PERFECT (4) having found her on debut, but she will be used up early here and that concerns me enough to look for greener pastures. For whatever reason, RICH BEAUTY (13) hasn't earned the respect she deserves but if they run along as expected here, she'll finish off as well as anything late.
Suggested Bet:
$5 Win & $15 Place Rich Beauty (13) at $16 or better
Race 9
Confidence:
Not one part of me would blame a single soul for truck-loading QUEEN ELIDA (6) here. Not only is she the likely leader but her record is that of a perpetual winner. The punt is largely about instinct, however, and there's something telling me I don't want to take the $1.60. The same instinct is telling em I don't want to play this race at all.
Suggested Bet:
Nothing significant (Confidence rating that Queen Elida (6) will win)
Race 10
Confidence:
It may sound odd, but almost no run this prep from AMAZING DREAM (10) impressed me more than last weekend's beaten third. Very, very, very few horses could have done what she did off-pegs in that brutal mile and back up to the middle trip I'm all but certain she'll find a way to dominate inferior opposition.
Suggested Bet:
$50 Win Amazing Dream (10) at $2 or better
Early Quaddie
The only query here was whether to play Honolua Bay one-out in main Quad and double the number of combinations. Playing slightly skinny in leg three with juvenile trotters doesn't sit super comfortably with me but I think there's only three winning hopes - and really one if Just A Bit Touchy trots throughout.
2,11/ 1,2,3,4,6,12,13/ 13/ 6: $42 gets 300%
2,11/ 1,2,3,4,6,12,13/ 2,5/ 6: $28 gets 100%
CONFIDENCE:
Quaddie
I'm racing against pattern here, but in all honesty, I see the one Quad option paying dividends tonight. On such a massive card I can see plenty playing a little wider than they normally would through the first two legs, but I don't think it's required. Maybe it isn't n leg three either and Bettor Twist could well make a fool of me, but the way the 3YO Fillies Final is likely to be staged, I want bulk options. Same goes with the last leg where Sounds Perfect is the one to beat but if she runs the gate as expected she could be vulnerable on the way home.
1,13/ 5,10/ 1,2,4,6,12,13/ 4,8,9,11,13: $120 gets 100%
CONFIDENCE:
Summary
Win, place, each way
Race 1:
$40 Win Honolua Bay (11) at $2.20 or better
Race 2:
$25 Each Way Kyvalley Hotspur (12) at $6 or better
Race 3:
$30 Win Just A Bit Touchy (13) at $2.40 or better
Race 5:
$10 Win & $30 Place Heza Son Of Agun at $5 or better
Race 6:
$20 Place Narutac Prince (9) at $5 the drum or better
Race 7:
$10 Win & $20 Place Joanna (13) at $10 or better
Race 8:
$5 Win & $15 Place Rich Beauty (13) at $16 or better
Race 9:
$50 Win Amazing Dream (10) at $2 or better
Exotics
Race 4:
Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 1/ 2,4,8,11: $24 gets 600%
Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2,4,11/ 1: $6 gets 200%
Early Quaddie
2,11/ 1,2,3,4,6,12,13/ 13/ 6: $42 gets 300%
2,11/ 1,2,3,4,6,12,13/ 2,5/ 6: $28 gets 100%
Quaddie
1,13/ 5,10/ 1,2,4,6,12,13/ 4,8,9,11,13: $120 gets 100%