The Goodform Gameplan: Shepparton Saturday 15th August

A few days ago I was keen to play this opening event after identifying HIT THE SKY (8) as EW value at $14 but that price is all gone now. Indeed this event is a great example of ow much price matters because now we’re turning our attention to his stablemate MISS HARTLEY (2). I’m not her biggest fan and the fact Kate has chosen to steer HIT THE SKY (8) doesn’t fill me with confidence but at her current quote of $15 she’s worth a little tickle given she’s going pretty well and should fall into a perfect spot from the neat alley.

SUGGESTED BETS

$10 Each Way Miss Hartley (2)

There is little doubt this will be the most-watched race after 6pm tonight and for good reason with budding champion RIDE HIGH (6) set to make it 10 wins straight but the critical question is; can we make money from the race? I can’t guaranteed that but after long consideration I think it’s best to play conservatively rather than try something tricky and – hopefully – we will get a better F4 divvy than we think by circumventing those punters being a little too aggressive and a little too bullish.

SUGGESTED BETS

Flexi First Four: 6/ 5/ 3,4/ 1,3,4: $60 gets 1500%

You can leave me right out of this race. JIMMY COME HOLME (6) should find a way to win (probably from the top end) but on a night replete with other wagering options I’m sitting this one out.

SUGGESTED BETS: Nothing significant

It’s a crying shame that markets have generally been turned on their head by the time we get to the Game Plan because REGULUS (6) was a wonderful bet at $5 just two seconds ago but the smart punters have stepped in and I don’t have the will or desire to launch in now at $2.90. That being said there’s a big class disparity between the leading players and the rest here so we can still have some fun with a couple of sneaky Tricks.

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2,7,8/ 1,2,7,8: $36 gets 400%

Flexi Trifecta: 7,8/ 2,6,7,8/ 1,2,6,7,8: $24 gets 133.33%

Well hasn’t this been a fun little race for promo and bants? It won’t be a laughing matter for yours truly if BONCEL BENJAMIN (1) prevails but I can’t see how he will. REACTOR NOW (10) may well be the next big thing but at the quotes I’m now happy to play SIXTY (8) and DIAMONDS N CASH (11). SIXTY (8) just gets the gun run in the right kind of race for him with a proper genuine tempo and I think folks forge the trajectory that DIAMONDS N CASH (11) was on before breathing and tendon issues halted his progression.

SUGGESTED BET:

$20 Each Way on Sixty (8) at $10 or better

$20 Each Way on Diamonds N Cash (11) at $6 or better

Part of me wants to make a case for IZMOK (3) here given he is an underrated horse and did everything that could be expected of him first-up last start but there are too many if’s and but’s to get heavily involved. On the flip-side the way Andy and Kate Gath talk about C K SPUR (8) it seems madness not to punt him at $2.90. They say you only regret the things you don’t do but I’m far too torn to punt here and will play this race through Quads instead.

.SUGGESTED BETS: Nothing significant (Confidence level that C K Spur will win)

Yet again we’re faced with a race here where it would have been great to punt MAJOR DELICO (6) yesterday or last night but the intelligent punters have found him and launched. I’m so confident he’ll lead and win that I’ll still get involved at his current quote ($2.30) but if he gets much shorter it’s too much risk for too little reward.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$40 Win on Major Delico at $2.20 or better.

With all due respect to the budding legend that is Ride High this is the race I’m looking forward to most tonight as we get to see the clash of two very smart 3YO’s in SAHARA SIROCCO (8) and PACIFICO DREAM (9). The way the race sets up I think The Puppet can balance up then rifle forward and get a big, critical tactical advantage over his much more fancied rival who has no need to bust a boiler here and who always goes better in front. I’m committed to the concept they’ll run one-two so for the first time tonight we’re getting properly exotic with exotics and hoping SAHARA SIROCCO (7) salutes.

SUGGESTED BETS: (Confidence level that Regulus will win)

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 8/ 1,2,3,5: $30 gets 750%

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 7/ 1,2,3,5: $20 gets 500%

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 8/ 4,6: $6 gets 300%

Flexi Trifecta: 8/ 7/ 4,6: $4 gets 200%

I feel pretty satisfied with the wagers we have placed so I’m staying out of the final event but I do believe markets will indicate which of STORM CLOUD (4) or CRACKER JET (3) will be winning. I’m with STORM CLOUD (4) to lead all the way unless he’s very soft in betting.

SUGGESTED BET: Nothing significant (Confidence level that Storm Cloud will win)