The Goodform Gameplan: Tabcorp Park Melton Saturday 27th June

When I first spied the market for this most interesting contest I was keen to play a couple at value but my style dictates that punting WAR HERO (1) when I don’t ‘know’ enough about him (I like what I’ve seen) or even RUPERT OF LINCOLN (8) based on a map I can’t guarantee doesn’t suit me super well. I do want to play the race to some degree however and the fact I believe ITS BACK IN THE DAY (10) is shorter than he should be means there’s a minor opportunity to get involved.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 1,8,10/ 1,6,7,8,10: $12 gets 100%

Flexi Trifecta: 1,8,10/ 1,8,9,10/ 1,6,7,8,9,10: $18 gets 50%

Just as was the case in Race 1, I’d be keener ‘laying’ favourite JOBELLS IMAGE (1) here at what I deem to be an inaccurately short quote than backing anything else though my map says LARAJAY MACRAY (3) can lead and if she does I think she’ll go close at a price and IM A DENNY TOO (7) has also been disrespected by the market and is worth a smaller wager.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$10 Each Way on Larajay Macray (3) at $7 or better (currently $13)

$5 Each Way on Im A Denny Too (7) at $11 or better (currently $11)

Funnily enough I’m probably less keen to play in this race as an isolated event than either of the previous two events but the market often rules and in this case RADICAL MAJOR (7) coming up at $5.50 has twisted my arm. I have my doubts about a few others in single figures and I really like this horse. I would have been willing to accept $4 so I must have a bet.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$25 Each Way on Radical Major at $4 or better (currently $5.50)

I actually still haven’t gotten my head around why IMSETTOGO (6) isn’t favourite here so rather than play some tricky Trifecta I’m just backing her straight out. She drew the second row and had to make a move while ZIGZAGZOO (2) was getting a picnic in front last start. Here, if she doesn’t make an early error she’ll be riding shotgun outside the speed immediately after the start and from there her age, experience and speed should be the deciding factors.

SUGGESTED BET:

$40 Win on Imsettogo (6) at $2 or better (currently $2.30)

The money has already come so I can only hope and pray that punters snapped up the $6 available early but I’m very confident EUREKA (5) is the one to beat and would have taken something around $2.70 so the $3.50 still available is more than good enough. He may need things to work out early but he’s the best horse regardless for mine and should at least be favourite ahead of MIRRAGON (1) who remains an enigma for me even after his impressive last start success. I won’t be playing OFF THE RADAR (10) 1 x 3 tonight but wouldn’t blame anybody that did. Darby McGuigan jumps on and with the crazy early predicted speed here he’ll be suited down to the ground.

SUGGESTED BET:

$40 Win on Eureka (5) at $ 2.70 or better (currently $3.50)

Top fluc has well and truly evaporated but there’s little doubt to me that WAR DAN (5) is the one to beat here. If he begins as quickly as he can then he’ll assume control soon after the start and if he gets there I can’t see where the pressure comes from so Kima Frenning can dictate through the middle stages then slip away at the critical stage and prove too tough to catch. If you’re going to bet however, bet as early as you can because the price is going one way fast.

SUGGESTED BETS:

$20 Win on War Dan (5) at $2.50 or better ($2.60 currently available)

I don’t hate many races but I loathe this one. Three fresh runners are engaged; two of whom are changing stables and both are critical runners. Leave me out.

SUGGESTED BETS: Nothing significant (Confidence rating that Ideal Pleasure will win)

If I have this map right and MCLOVIN (6) finds the front he’s the biggest moral you could possibly imagine; but the price assessors have been awake to that fact so rather than back him straight tout we’re going to target a nice simple Trick to ensure we finish proceedings on the right note.

SUGGESTED BETS:

Flexi Trifecta: 6/ 2,5/ 2,3,4,5 ($60 gets 1000%)