Race 1
Confidence:
I’m somewhat surprised that DARK TERROR (3) opened shorter than was expecting ($2.30) and has still been supported into $2 when the times he’s been running at Bendigo are no better than ARDEN VOYAGER (12) has been pacing at Melton and Bendigo is racing like it’s made from the same material as a conveyor belt of late. Even with that being the case however I reckon this is an exotic race more than anything else as the three key winning chances stand out from the rest and I think we’re a good chance of getting some value home for third.
SUGGESTED BETS:
Flexi Trifecta: 3,12,13/ 3,12,13/ 3,4,9,10,12,13: $60 gets 250%
Race 2
Confidence:
Even though ROBBIE ROYALE (10) is one of the most likely winners of the evening I wouldn’t have taken less than $2.50 about him in a nice race from a second row draw so the $1.90 we’re currently getting doesn’t seduce me at all. If you’re very keen for a wager I’d either lay Sassy Pants or back LUCINDA MAC (4) and MYRTLE VALE (13) the drum but personally I won’t be getting involved from a punting perspective.
SUGGESTED BETS: Nothing significant (Confidence rating that Robbie Royale will win)
Race 3
Confidence:
There’s been a massive move for BONCEL BENJAMIN (3) back with Michael Stanley here and it was a move that concerned me when analysing this event. As a result it’s dulled my enthusiasm to some degree but I still believe that DELIGHTFUL MIA (6) will lead and I would have taken $3.20 so I’m willing to have an interest bet on her at the current quote of $3.80 without breaking the bank. The big unders here is BULLETPROOF BOY (7) as I simply cannot see a way for him to win from gate seven and he’s $4.20 when I marked him $16.
SUGGESTED BETS:
$20 to Win on Delightful Mia (6) at $3.20 or better
Race 4
Confidence:
The way I’ve mapped tonight’s Smoken Up Sprint COURAGEOUS SAINT (1) should almost certainly be able to hold up until budding champion RIDE HIGH (5) rolls forward to assume control and id that’s the case peg-domination looms very, very large. On current form the only runner that can upset that domination is MY KIWI MATE (3) so ultimately we have ourselves a pretty nice betting race if we attack with vigour and conviction.
SUGGESTED BET:
Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 1/ 3,8: $40 gets 2000%
Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 3,8/ 1: $20 gets 1000%
Race 5
Confidence:
I know it sounds obscene but I am genuinely tempted to at least run the WOBELEE (6)/MCLOVIN (10) Bundle Bet through Multis as $1.54 actually looks vale to me. It’s a great race this Noopy Kiosk FFA but I’ll be stunned if one of the two big guns don’t salute and SUNDONS COURAGE (5) looks outrageous unders at $3.30. Despite leaning toward MCLOVIN (10) I feel the safest option here is a neat little Trifecta which doubles as a Bundle Bet and may offer even more value under the right circumstances.
SUGGESTED BET:
Flexi Trifecta: 6,10/ 5,6,7,9,10/ 3,5,6,7,9,10: $80 gets 250%
Race 6
Confidence:
So much depends on what happens early here but I’m confident enough that EUREKA (4) leads that I was always willing to take anything better than $2 so the $2.40 currently available is outstanding. I’m also willing to entertain the thought of backing BULLYS DELIGHT (2) the drum at anything over $3.50 as if my map plays out he’ll be trailing EUREKA (4) and looks a giant chance of a podium finish if he does.
SUGGESTED BETS:
$50 Win on Eureka (4) at anything better than $2
$30 Place on Bullys Delight (2) at anything better than $3.50
Race 7
Confidence:
Weird race this. Initially AMERICAN ZEST (8) was the value runner when opened at $7 and if you took the Tweet I sent out on Thursday and have invested around that price now is the time to also exploit the new value about two other runners. Essentially I would have been happy to back IDEALSOMEMAGIC (7) at $3 but with all the money for AMERICAN ZEST (8) he’s out to a much better quote than that and MISS HARTLEY (1) has been horribly disrespected by the market and simply must be punted Each Way at $13.
SUGGESTED BETS:
$30 Win on Idealsomemagic (7) at $3 or better
$15 Each Way on Miss Hartley at $6 or better (currently $13)
Race 8
Confidence:
FIREROCKFIREROLL (4) looks the one here but I can’t be getting involved at the current $1.60 so it’s a no-bet race to finish the night.
SUGGESTED BETS: Nothing significant (Confidence rating that That Firerockfireroll will win)
Early Quaddie
Not getting overly involved in the Early Quad as it’s really a treble with Ride High in the last leg but we’ll have an interest play and hope that either Robbie Royale or Myrtle Vale can salute in the second leg.
3,12,13/ 10/ 3,6/ 5: $30 gets 500%
3,12,13/ 10/ 11/ 5: $6 gets 200%
3,12,13/ 1,4,9,13/ 3,6/ 5: $24 gets 100%
CONFIDENCE:
Quaddie
We’re probably spending more on these combinations than we should but there are a few ways we can make a decent profit so I think it’s a worthwhile exercise particularly if Miss Hartley or Jean Luc can win leg three or the fave goes under in the last.
6,10/ 4,9/ 7,8/ 4: $40 gets 500%
6,10/ 4,9/ 7,8/ 2,5,6,7,9,10: $40 gets 100%
6,10/ 4,9/ 1,5,9/ 4: $24 gets 200%
5,7,9/ 4,9/ 7,8/ 4: $6 gets 50%
CONFIDENCE:
Summary
Win, place, each way
Race 3:
$20 to Win on Delightful Mia (6) at $3.20 or better
Race 6:
$50 Win on Eureka (4) at anything better than $2
$30 Place on Bullys Delight (2) at anything better than $3.50
Race 7:
$30 Win on Idealsomemagic (7) at $3 or better
Exotics
Race 1:
Flexi Trifecta: 3,12,13/ 3,12,13/ 3,4,9,10,12,13: $60 gets 250%
Race 4:
Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 1/ 3,8: $40 gets 2000%
Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 3,8/ 1: $20 gets 1000%
Race 5:
Flexi Trifecta: 6,10/ 5,6,7,9,10/ 3,5,6,7,9,10: $80 gets 250%
Early Quaddie
3,12,13/ 10/ 3,6/ 5: $30 gets 500%
3,12,13/ 10/ 11/ 5: $6 gets 200%
3,12,13/ 1,4,9,13/ 3,6/ 5: $24 gets 100%
Quaddie
6,10/ 4,9/ 7,8/ 4: $40 gets 500%
6,10/ 4,9/ 7,8/ 2,5,6,7,9,10: $40 gets 100%
6,10/ 4,9/ 1,5,9/ 4: $24 gets 200%
5,7,9/ 4,9/ 7,8/ 4: $6 gets 50%
