Goodform Gameplan: Albion Park Sat 24th July

Lightning can strike twice as once again I’m confident we can get off to a winning start. A return to Band 5 company is a huge step back for CRUNCH TIME (4) after tackling the Sunshine Sprint last week. He loves to roll up on the engine and he can bully himself to that position here to take them all the way. The early bird has certainly snared the worm with the $3.90 opener disappearing but we can still cash-in.

SUGGESTED BET:  $40 to win CRUNCH TIME (4) $2.20 or better

This race is effectively the Blacks A Fake Consolation and made tricky by questionable form lines over the long trip for many of these. ELLMERS IMAGE (1) did take them all the way over this trip in a mid-week event a couple of weeks back and although this is different gravy, the gate is a huge help. SEND IT (6) again faces a horrid gate but has been sectionally brilliant in both starts in the Sunshine State. OUR UNCLE SAM (8) was better last week but the gate dents his hopes, BALRAJ (3) is a long way below where he was last year while CARDLESFROMHEAVEN (10) is the swooper if they go too hard but has been well found after tightening right up from the opening quote.

SUGGESTED BET: Happy to watch- think SEND IT (6) can breakthough.

#LeaderPeter will set the tone for this race with UNCLE SHANK (1) a 3YO colt that has shown a penchant for power-running the mile. This is a big step-up for him, but he will be blazing. The unquestionable class runner is KOWALSKI ANALYSIS (11) – where excuses aside- is far too short IMO to be a betting proposition for a horse that has not beaten a runner home his past 3 starts. ILIKEMEBETTOR (10) is in great touch but he too will find it tough from the second line out in gate 10. Very strong on the clock last week, ROCKS OR DIAMONDS (8) represents the value as he should be leaders back and just needs the passing lane with momentum to feature.

SUGGESTED BET: $5 win / $15 place ROCKS OR DIAMONDS (8) $10 or better

The big Group 1 Queensland Trotters Cup is without doubt the best field of square gaiters ever assembled in the same race in Queensland. The best of her 3 runs at The Creek came last week for PINK GALAHS (11) and she can come up trumps again here. I envisage her securing the perfect cart into the battle and under that scenario will have the better closing speed to arrive. MAJESTIC SIMON (1) has been found already after opening at $17. Strong off the tempo, RED CASTLETON (10) can position 3 poles here and at the place price, appeals as a drum runner.

SUGGESTED BET: $20 win PINK GALAHS (13) $2.5 or better, $20 place RED CASTLETON (10) $3.5 (place) or better.

Realistically this Derby looks a battle between the two Kiwis in AMERICAN DEALER (2) and KRUG (10). It is hard to entertain the winner coming outside either of those two and it could be a genuine case where several runners cannot see out the 13 furlongs. AMERICAN DEALER (2) has been super in Queensland and his effort to claim the South East Derby was massive. KRUG (10) stayed home last week to watch his opponents in the lead up and as good as he is and I have him on top, the $1.65 is below rock-bottom as far as I am concerned. Could be some real deja-vu as CAPTAIN CRUSADER (13) is again slammed with a horrible gate and is at huge odds. The same scenario the past two weeks where he has been very good to us in filling a minor at a nice place quote.

SUGGESTED BET: $30 quinella 2-10

The Oaks over the 2138m and with no standout filly, last week’s South East Oaks winner SPORTY DANCER (8) looks to get the race pattern to again capitalise. SOHO BROADWAY (1), gets a big swing in the barriers after copping 13 last week where she was very good in working home to grab 3^rd. My map has her in front, which should provide SPORTY DANCER (8) with the perfect stalking trip. MOMENTSLIKETHESE (6) had no luck last week and back to the front line might just get close early and has met with some early market support.

SUGGESTED BET: $20 win SPORTY DANCER (8) $2.70 or better

Huge in defeat in the Sunshine Sprint from the second-line, KING OF SWING (1) has all the benefits from the gate. This looks a perfect race to attack the exotics anchoring the King. COPY THAT (5) deserved his Sunshine Sprint win after working hard in the run and looks a certain placing the way he has thrived in Queensland. EXPENSIVE EGO (10) looks set to be put into the battle early and likely is sent around them to sit parked and will be fighting hard. TURN IT UP (8) lands every opportunity to follow the speed and see if he can take a snipers shot in the stretch. COLT THIRTY ONE (9) can dart down to go three poles and from there be chiming in late. Anything wide or too far back looks set to struggle in this.

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi Trifecta 1 / 5-10 / 5-8-9-10 $24 gets 400%

Flexi Trifecta 1 / 5 / 10 $10 gets 1000%

Flexi Trifecta 1 / 8 / 5-10 $10 gets 500%

The tempo could leave some of these vulnerable if they overcook it early. I’m mapping CLASS TO THE MAX (1) in front which can give DANGERZONE (8) the perfect trail. Under this scenario I am keen to play the Butler/Barnes combo to double down on their first G1 victory from last week by adding another. If there is too much heat, SPEAK THE TRUTH (6) looks progressive enough to chime in off the tempo.

SUGGESTED BET: $10 to win DANGERZONE (8) $4 or better, $5 each-way SPEAK THE TRUTH (6) $17 or better

The fillies QBRED Triad looks a benefit for CAT KING COLE (3) who is by far the best 2YO Filly in the state. With her dominance, this is a perfect race to attack the exotics hard. RACY ROXY (2) draws inside the favourite and is the clear second-pick while ROSES ARE SWEET (9) faces a tricky gate but is the clear 3^rd pick of the fillies.

SUGGESTED BET:

Flexi Trifecta 3 / 2 / 9 $15 gets 1500%

Flexi Trifecta 3 / 2-9 / 2-9 $10 gets 500%

Flexi Trifecta 3 / 2-9-10 / 2-9-10 $15 gets 1500%

Get to the Chopper! The last race of the Constellations Carnival will hopefully have us flying. OHOKA CHOPPER (1) looks the leader and from the front can take it all the way.

SUGGESTED BET: $30 win OHOKA CHOPPER (1) $2.20 or better