Goodform Gameplan: Kilmore Friday September 24

Early shoppers that nabbed the $8 about MONSIEUR DELACOUR (8) are in a wonderful position given they had Each Way options with a pretty smart horse that draws to trail the leader in transit. I’m obscenely confident that if the map plays out as planned he’ll fill a podium position but the re-calibrated quote of $4.80 means aggressive punters will need to back him win-only but should there be enough pressure he’ll likely reward those that keep the faith. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$20 Win MONSIEUR DELACOUR (8) at $4.50 or better 

Price is king, and as a result we’re forced, as we will be many times tonight into backing a runner here that isn’t among my top couple of tips. She isn’t going like she can but if EMERALD STRIDE (1) holds the top as expected then NORQUAY (8) will receive the perfect trip and, on her day, she’s more than capable of using it to fatal advantage. She’s currently $2.40 the drum so even if things don’t pan out and she’s three poles, the likelihood of getting money back with small interest is strong. 

SUGGESTED BET:  

$10 Each Way NORQUAY at $7 or better

Remember how I said price was King? Just as a reminder to those that aren’t aware, I do my metro form on Tuesday nights and often-times I get my knickers in a twist about believing I’ve found value. Equally often that value isn’t available. Here, I was crazy keen to play ICONIC MAJOR (9) given his super runs back from a break and the likelihood of early speed. I would have accepted $4. I’m not getting it. On the other hand, MAJOR MEISTER (4), who will also benefit from a strong tempo, has stayed around the $9 mark and that, in my eyes, is much more appealing Each Way. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$15 Each Way MAJOR MEISTER (4) at $9 or better

The genuine key to this contest is whether JEMSOMS PET (1) can hold up early and, in doing so, inherit the opportunity of handing up to near-certain winner MAJOR MOTH (5). The only horse likely to cause that plan consternation is WATCH LIST (3) and if he crosses early we’re in some measure of pain but if he doesn’t JEMSOMS PET (1) appears a near gilt-edged silver medallist and even if he doesn’t run second he will run third. That paves the path for some beautiful exotic options outlined below. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 1 / 8,11: $30 gets 1500% 

Flexi Trifecta: 5/ 8,11/ 1: $10 gets 500%

Yet another race where the price of my top selection isn’t quite what I need. Should WOULD YOU MIND (1) get out to $4 I will get involved but as things stand there’s value attached to BOY FROM BONDI (9) and ENCHANTED STRIDE (11) and I’d prefer to lean that way even though it’s psychologically challenging to wager away from the horse you believe will salute. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$5 Win & $15 Place BOY FROM BONDI (9) at $14 or better & ENCHANTED STRIDE (11) at $14 or better

Since dee-diving the form Tuesday night I’ve been pretty well certain that AMERICAN DEALER (12) will prove a class above despite the obstacles he faces so I’m happy to structure an exotic wager around him prevailing but as the week has progressed I’ve become more and more bullish about TUPPENCE (6) running a drum. It’s a fast front line but this horse can explode early when asked and with Chris Alford engaged he can spear the gate and find a role which gives him an enormous place chance here at massive odds. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 12/ 2,6,7,11/ 2,3,5,6,7,8,11: $30 gets 125% 

$20 Place TUPPENCE (6) at $5 Place or better

TRIPLE EIGHT (6) clearly represented HUGE overs at $19 when markets were released for tonight’s feature event, as did OUT TO PLAY (2) at $9. Those prices are now gone however and based on her amazing big-race record, the fact Ants is on board and her superior staying credentials AMAZING DREAM (10) should always have been fave and is well worth a wager if she’s not totally crunched late. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$30 Win AMAZING DREAM (10) at $2.80 or better

Handicaps are devilishly tough to overcome in major races these days so rather than play one of the big-gun backmarkers at short odds I’m siding with THE PENNY DROPS (4) as our best Each Way platy despite the price being much shorter than it was and BRANDLO PRINCE (6) acting as our other obvious option. You could also lay MCLOVIN (12) if you’re prepared to deal with a decent liability as he has been big unders all the way through betting. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$10 Each Way THE PENNY DROPS (4) at $10 or better & BRANDLO PRINCE (6) at $7.50 or better

There’s a definite ‘vibe’ erupting that one of my favourite little mares TECHYS ANGEL (9) is flying in preparation for her return to the races but I’m sticking fat with JOANNA (7) to beat her from a draw which almost ensures she leads in transit. It would severely shock me if they didn’t run top-two so skinny, targeted exotics looks the way to play. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

Flexi Trifecta: 7/ 9/ 2,4,5,8: $40 gets 1000% 

Flexi Trifecta: 9/ 7/ 2,4,5,8: $20 gets 500%

I think my good mate Nikkita ‘Skeeta’ Ross, and I have different ideas about why ZUBERI (6) represents excellent value in the final event tonight but we’ve both found him nevertheless. I believe Skeeta thinks he’ll go forward where I think he might just slot in but does have a class edge on most of these which belies his double-figure quote. 

SUGGESTED BET: 

$5 Win & $15 Place ZUBERI (6) at $14 or better