Night three of an Inter Dominion is about two things: motivation and reality.
While connections of the 44 horses still in the series all basically want the same thing at Alexandra Park tonight — victory — what they need is different.
Probably two thirds of the qualifiers for Saturday week’s $500,000 pacing final are set in stone barring huge form reversals in tonight’s final round of heats, with six to eight rivals chasing the last four slots.
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In the trotting series there looks to be seven winning chances for their $150,000 final and they are all as good as in the Group 1 already.
Of course, everybody would like another win tonight, such is the nature of competitive sport and the Inter Dom can be an expensive time off the track, so money comes in handy.
But there are still differing levels of motivation going into tonight’s four heats. Some have to get good points otherwise their series is over. Others know they are in the final and that is where reality kicks in.
Take A G’s White Socks for example.
He has been incredible in this series for trainer Barry Purdon and driver Maurice McKendry and both would love him to clean sweep the series.
But he is obviously safely in the final and tonight is in a heat where two New Zealand Cup winners in Cruz Bromac and Thefixer are expected to lead and trail.
Purdon is adamant barrier two on the second line is perfect for A G’s White Socks because he should be midfield on the outer without having to work.
But is McKendry really going to take off and attack potential leader Thefixer, knowing he almost certainly won’t beat him if he does? And if he does break him doesn’t that just make him vulnerable to Cruz Bromac, let alone give A G’s White Socks a headache a week out from the a final worth almost 17 times more than tonight’s race?
Sure, they want to win. But the reality is he may not be able to if the race pans out as many think and it might be silly to try and find out.
The same could apply, although not quite as dramatically, to Majestic Man in the last trotting heat.
He has been sensational during this series but can’t lead from the second line so why would Brad Williamson send him mid-race to attack Winterfell or Massive Metro, potentially giving him a gutbuster for no profit.
In a smaller field he can still win, but in a race likely to lack tempo his odds will be too short.
On the flip side of that coin are horses like Bling It On, San Carlo and Classie Brigade, who need to move and get forward before the sprint goes on, wanting at least top-six finishes to qualify for their finals.
They have motivation to be in the finish, even if they can’t win.
Motivation plus reality in the final round of heats of an Inter Dominion over 2700m, equals back those who can win without flattening themselves.
Oh, and Ultimate Sniper, who the normal rules don’t seem to apply to just now.
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RACE BY RACE ANALYSIS
R6, 6.24pm (ADST), fifth pacing heat, 2700m mobile: Ultimate Sniper (11) has been so dominant it is pointless finding one to beat him. He has raced three wide for over half the two heats he has won and probably only has to sit parked to win this. Chase Auckland (1) got buzzed up early then trailed and was ok on Tuesday, so logical danger, if any. Colt Thirty One (2) has had a nightmare series but is still good enough to factor in top three here while San Carlo (10) should love the longer trip. First 4 hopes to stablemates On The Cards (4) and Mach Shard (8).
Suggested bet: You can take the shorts Ultimate Sniper to win but 11-1/2/4/10 might be a trifecta and First4 play.
R7, 6.53pm (ADST), fifth trotting heat, 2700m mobile: Temporale’s (4) gate speed means he hold the aces because he can probably lead and choose to stay there or trail. Did win a Rowe Cup so has stamina. Marcoola (8) may actually be better suited drawn wide and could launch mid-race. Hard to work out whether he is at his best so his odds are too short but he could go a blinder. Habibi Inta (2) was better on night two and should be fitter and suited to the longer trip. Don’t be surprised if he goes close. Paramount King (6) has been massive both nights and can win so the early tactics could be interesting while Tough Monarch (1) has a First 4 hope sticking to the markers.
Suggested bet: Temporale (4) each way taking the short way home.
R8, 7.24pm (ADST), sixth pacing heat, 2700m mobile: Stablemates Thefixer (4) and Cruz Bromac (2) have had no luck in the series and one of them should win. They could even lead and trail but after having had two quiet runs in the heats Thefixer should have plenty of energy in the tank. It is doubtful there will be punishing attacks so if he leads he is on top, but with one run at them up the passing lane it could just as easily be Cruz Bromac. A G’s White Socks (10) has been stunning in the series so far and drawn to get midfield outer run, but it might be hard to give the other favourites a start. Bling It On (6) never got a gap on Tuesday and will have to go forward at some stage as he sits on the cusp of making the final field.
Classie Brigade (12) and My Kiwi Mate (5) can get some but hard to see them winning.
Suggested bet: Thefixer to win.
R9, 9.54pm (ADST), sixth trotting heat, 2700m mobile: As good as Winterfell (5) and Majestic Man (9) have been winning heats this is the chance for Massive Metro (5). He was huge night one, never a winning chance night two and might have enough gate speed to be master of his own destiny over a trip he won the National Trot in record time last summer. Winterfell (6) had no luck on Tuesday and could even find the front here, which might be enough to get him home in a no pressure race. Majestic Man (9) seems to love The Park and was dazzling both nights so can win but odds too short giving the other pair a start. Big Jack Hammer (4) might get to the marker pegs and into the final so a First 4 player.
Suggested bet: Winterfell to win, save Massive Metro.